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开利全球(CARR.US)展望前景:住宅HVAC业务恐骤降 商用市场强劲补增长
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-11 01:49
Core Insights - Carrier Global's CEO David Gitlin assessed the adverse factors affecting the residential HVAC market, while highlighting strong growth areas such as commercial HVAC, data centers, and aftermarket services [1] Residential HVAC Market - Carrier Global's North American residential business is expected to see a sharp decline, with a projected drop of over 40% in business volume for Q3 due to weakened consumer demand and significant inventory reductions by dealers [1] - The company anticipates a year-over-year sales decline of approximately 30% in residential HVAC for the third quarter, resulting in a revenue gap of $500 million compared to previous expectations [1] - Gitlin noted that the industry is experiencing its lowest business volume in nearly a decade, attributing this to high interest rates and consumer pressures that are delaying residential HVAC activities [1] Cost-Cutting Measures - To mitigate the impact of the downturn, Carrier Global is implementing aggressive cost control measures, including the layoff of over 2,000 non-direct employees and deeper production adjustments [1] Commercial HVAC and Data Center Growth - Despite the residential market decline, Carrier Global's $6.5 billion commercial HVAC business is expected to achieve double-digit growth for the fifth consecutive year, driven by strong demand from data centers, healthcare, and electronics manufacturing [3] - Revenue related to data centers is projected to reach $1 billion by 2025, up from $500 million in 2024 [3] - Gitlin emphasized that the company's achievements in the data center sector have exceeded expectations, with investments in capacity expansion and cutting-edge technologies [3] Aftermarket Services - The aftermarket services segment continues to perform well, with double-digit growth attributed to digital solutions and interconnected platforms like Abound and Lynx [3] European Strategy and Viessmann Integration - Gitlin reiterated the long-term value of acquiring Viessmann's climate solutions business, despite lower-than-expected sales in Europe, particularly in the German residential heating market [4] - Carrier Global expects to achieve $200 million in cost synergies within three years and anticipates $100 million in revenue synergies from cross-selling and channel expansion [4] Carrier Energy and HEMS Opportunities - Carrier Energy, a solution combining batteries and heat pumps, aims to alleviate grid pressure during peak electricity usage and allow homeowners to feed power back to the grid [5] - The system is currently in field testing and is expected to be commercially available by early 2026, with strong user interest noted [5] Long-Term Outlook - Although Carrier Global will provide new full-year performance guidance during its Q3 earnings call, executives remain confident in the company's long-term growth prospects, with strong performance expected in commercial HVAC and aftermarket services [6] - The residential market is anticipated to recover in 2026, benefiting from the historical low levels expected in 2025 [6]