Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in 2025 is expected to be in the initial "stabilization" phase, characterized by a "softening decline" in volume and price, with various supply-demand adjustment policies facing implementation bottlenecks [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, the overall performance of the real estate market is influenced by expectations of stabilization, showing positive trends at the beginning of the year, but weakening in the second quarter [2] - The estimated total transaction volume for first and second-hand homes in 2025 is expected to decline by 5.0%, with new homes and second-hand homes decreasing by 6.9% and 2.6% respectively [3] - The cumulative price decline for second-hand homes remains consistent, while the average price decline for new homes is affected by structural factors [2][3] Group 2: Policy and Structural Adjustments - To accelerate the transition from "softening decline" to "stabilization," there are still bottlenecks in the implementation of various supply-demand adjustment policies, such as difficulties in reducing effective inventory through land storage and slow progress in urban village renovations [2] - The company emphasizes the need for the policy side to focus on preemptive measures to control derivative risks, including credit risks of real estate companies and pressures from mortgage defaults [2] Group 3: Future Projections - In a neutral scenario, the company anticipates that the decline in total housing sales will slightly narrow in 2026, with real estate investment potentially stabilizing [3] - If policies exceed expectations, it could lead to a rebound in housing prices, marking a transition to the second phase of stabilization; conversely, if derivative risks escalate, it may prolong the stabilization process [3]