广发证券 资深宏观分析师 王丹 bjwangdan@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 从投入产出表看，中国经济新旧动能结构转换已取得实质性进展。 2024 年旧经济典型代表的地产产业链占 GDP 比重已经降至 14% 左右，低 于"三新经济"增加值占比的 18% 。但地产的"止跌回稳"对经济的短期影响仍然不容忽视。 第二， 回顾" 924 "政策以来的房地产市场表现，政策优化带动了两个季度左右的地产需求的集中释放，主要集中在 2024 年 10 月至 2025 年 3 月； 2025 年 4 月开始销售、投资、价格指标再度出现调整。这一地产需求的"修复脉冲 - 回调脉冲"在节奏上与制造业 PMI 、实际 GDP 一致。 第三， 7 月底政治局会议强调"保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性"，国务院第九次全体会议进一步明确"采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态 势"，我们理解"采取有力措施"是在新的边际变化下对当前阶段地产政策的定调。 8 月 8 日北京市的 《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产相关政策的通知》是 一个开始。 第四， 8 月 25 日上海的"沪六条"是"采取有力措施"政策的继续落 ...

8月25日，国际评级机构标普授予越秀地产"BBB-"长期发行人信用评级，展望稳定。标普认为， 稳定展望反映越秀地产作为越秀集团核心子公司的地位，标普预期其在行业挑战下未来1至2年保 持市场竞争力。 时至今日，能够同时获得国际评级机构认可的房企已寥寥可数。 越秀地产此时获得投资评级意味着，在市场暖风频吹的当下，优质房企能够获得更多的发展 机会，这也是国际评级机构力挺的缘由。越秀地产稳守投资级"阵营"，不仅彰显企业基本面 的健康，也释放出市场对优质国资房企的信心。 标普在评级报告中指出，越秀地产在高能级城市的土地储备支撑了销售表现，预计越秀地产 的合同销售额将在2 0 2 5年达到约1 2 0 0亿元，较2 0 2 4年增长4%- 5%。这主要归因于越秀慈善在 北京和上海高端项目的销售表现令人满意。 近期，房地产市场止跌回稳的信号强烈。政府近日再强调要采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止 跌回稳态势，结合城市更新推进城中村和危旧房改造，多管齐下释放改善性需求。 本月以来，一线城市中的北京、上海也陆续优化房地产政策，市场逐渐筑底。在此背景下， 诸如越秀地产这类优质的国资房企或将抓住投资机会，乘势而上。 精准投资助销售增长 ...

湖南衡阳于8月21日召开市政府专题会议，研究促进房地产市场止跌回稳举措方案。会议提出，要加强 组织领导，持续聚焦房地产市场发展变化，及时优化、调整、完善相关举措，不断为房地产市场注入活 力。 在中央层面，8月18日召开的国务院第九次全体会议要求，采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态 势，结合城市更新推进城中村和危旧房改造，多管齐下释放改善性需求。 在地方层面，已有城市推出增量政策支持房地产市场。例如，苏州市住房公积金管理中心日前发布的 《关于进一步扩大住房公积金使用范围的通知》将自2025年9月1日起施行，涉及优化住房公积金贷款使 用次数认定标准、下调住房公积金贷款首付款比例等多项政策内容。 此外，多地表态将继续发力推动房地产市场止跌回稳。广西壮族自治区住房和城乡建设厅房地产市场监 管处相关负责人日前表示，广西将以"好房子"供给引领住房消费升级，完善存量房消化机制和购房支持 政策，有力有序推进收购存量房，创新运用"文旅+购房""赛事+购房"等消费场景和房源利用方式，积极 稳妥推进投资企稳回升，更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳。 传统的"金九银十"房地产销售旺季即将到来，房地产领域再度受到市场关注。 今年以来，中 ...

2025 年 08 月 24 日 房地产 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 60% 72% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《新房成交面积环比增加，完善房地 产 金 融 基 础 性 制 度 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.8.17 《7 月供需两端均走弱，地产数据仍在 探底—行业点评报告》-2025.8.15 《新房上海同环比领涨，二手房价格 同环比降幅缩小—行业点评报告》 -2025.8.15 新房成交面积环比增加，巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态 势 ——行业周报 齐东（分析师） 胡耀文（分析师） 杜致远（联系人） huyaowen@kysec.cn qidong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522010002 duzhiyuan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124070064 市场端：土地成交面积同比下降，杭州土拍市场火热 销售端：根据房管局数据，2025 年第 34 周，全国 68 城商品住宅成交面积 196 万平米，同比下降 17%，环比增加 12%；从累计数值看，年初 ...

刘书馆 中国住房需求还很大 城乡存在巨大结构性错配 要文史 華作善成助力 好房子建设与城市更新 心一意抓好"一老一小 社区服务 产 / 首 / 席 / 财 / 经 / 融 / 媒 / 体 2025年8月25日星期一 本期12版总第2299期 定价-RMB5 CO HK$8 > 03-06 周济: 游集文左处理要 "从卖房子到造文明" 单大伟: 信心是推动房地产行业 持续向前的核心力量 2025中国房地产企业 品牌影响力研究成果发布 與企品屋榮争已经从过去年 兜"卖房子"升级为 ·杨综合实力 的较量,品牌影响力的构建将是 个更加复杂而长期的系统工程。 对话"好房子" 理想与空间的价值重构 针对行业存在的问题,陈伟是 出了拓展行业价值难度的方向;房 地产在满足物版和功能性需求之 外,还需回应居民的精神需求。 07 公司 中建四局更换"一把手" 圈圣的到任,不仅仅是换帅, 更像是为中建川局量身是制了 位"强短板,补剥项"的专家要领 导者。 >08 公司 东方雨虹收警示函 经营分红矛盾待解 拯披露信息显示,2023年2 月至2024年5月,公司通过销售 人员信款、财务人员转账等形 式,向实际控制人李卫国提供资 金69 ...

一、当前房地产市场态势剖析 （一）整体数据表现欠佳 今年 1 月至 7 月，从国家统计局公布的数据来看，房地产开发投资、新建商品房销售面积和销售额、房 地产开发企业到位资金同比均呈现下降态势。以 7 月为例，全国新建商品房销售面积 5709 万平方米， 销售额 5325 亿元，分别环比下滑 46% 和 48%；房屋新开工面积 4842 万㎡，环比下降 32.6%，同比下 降 15.4% 。7 月各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比下降，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降 0.2%，一线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降 1.0%。如北京，8 月二手房报价 49465 元 / 平，较上月波动 -0.18% ，多区域房价均有不同程度下滑 。这些数据直观地反映出当前房地产市场仍面临着较大的下行 压力，市场的活跃度和信心亟待进一步提升。 （二）局部积极因素涌现 尽管整体数据不容乐观，但房地产市场积极因素也在持续增加，一些城市表现相对稳定。7 月份，70 个 大中城市中，各线城市商品住宅销售价格同比降幅整体有所收窄。有 10 个城市新建商品住宅销售价格 与上月相比持平或上涨：北京、大连、南宁、徐州新建商品住宅价格与上月持平；上海、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is reaffirming its commitment to stabilize the real estate market, with recent meetings indicating a focus on policies to halt the decline in property prices and stimulate demand [1][3]. Group 1: Government Meetings and Policies - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, has emphasized the need for strong measures to stabilize the real estate market, following a previous meeting on June 13 that called for greater efforts to stop the market's decline [1][3]. - The recent State Council meeting on August 18 is notable as it is the first time real estate policies have been explicitly mentioned in this year's meetings, responding to concerns that real estate was being sidelined in decision-making [3][4]. - Experts suggest that the government's focus on stabilizing the real estate market is crucial for boosting domestic consumption and overall economic stability, as real estate is a significant component of consumer spending [3][7]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Trends - Data indicates that the real estate market is still undergoing significant adjustments, with first-tier cities experiencing an increase in the decline of second-hand housing prices. In July, prices in these cities fell by an average of 1.0%, with Beijing seeing a drop of 1.1% [4][5]. - Nationally, from January to July, the sales area of new residential properties decreased by 4.0% year-on-year, with sales revenue down by 6.5%, indicating a worsening trend in the market [5][6]. - The number of second-hand homes listed for sale has surged, with a 11.58% year-on-year increase in listings across 100 cities, highlighting a growing supply amid declining demand [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Recommendations - Analysts believe that without significant policy interventions, the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" period may not see substantial improvements in the market [7]. - Recommendations include addressing the fundamental issues affecting the market, such as employment stability and income expectations, alongside implementing supportive fiscal policies for new citizens and young families [7]. - The focus on urban renewal and the effective implementation of existing policies are expected to accelerate in the second half of the year, with potential for interest rate cuts to further support the market [7].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Taiyuan is experiencing a short-term rebound in second-hand housing prices, contrasting with the overall downward trend observed in other cities across the country [5][9][10]. Summary by Sections National Real Estate Market Trends - In July, second-hand housing prices in 70 major cities in China saw a general decline, with first-tier cities down by 1.0% and second and third-tier cities down by 0.5% [3][9]. - Only six cities reported an increase in new housing prices, with the highest being Shanghai and Urumqi, both at 0.3% [9][10]. Taiyuan's Economic Context - Taiyuan's GDP reached 5418 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 1.2%, significantly lower than the national average of 3.8% [5][6]. - The city has postponed its goal of reaching a GDP of 1 trillion yuan from 2025 to 2027 due to various macroeconomic challenges [5][6]. Second-hand Housing Market in Taiyuan - In July, Taiyuan was the only city to see a month-on-month increase in second-hand housing prices, rising by 0.2%, while the year-on-year figure fell by 4.6% [6][8]. - The new housing market in Taiyuan experienced a slight decline of 0.2% month-on-month but a year-on-year increase of 1.0% [6][8]. Factors Influencing Taiyuan's Housing Prices - The relative stability of Taiyuan's real estate market is attributed to its historical growth patterns, with less aggressive expansion compared to other provincial capitals [7][9]. - Certain districts in Taiyuan, such as Yingze and Wanbailin, have shown slight increases in second-hand housing prices, indicating localized market strength [7][8]. Future Outlook and Policy Implications - The overall trend suggests that while there is a short-term rebound in Taiyuan, the long-term outlook for second-hand housing prices remains uncertain due to a predominance of price declines across the broader market [8][10]. - The central government is expected to implement more supportive policies to stabilize the real estate market, with a focus on improving housing supply and addressing the challenges faced by the second-hand housing market [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Taiyuan is experiencing a short-term rebound in second-hand housing prices, while the overall national trend shows a decline in housing prices across major cities [1][5][7]. Economic Overview - Taiyuan's GDP reached 5418 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 1.2%, which is significantly lower than the national average of 3.8% [2]. - The city has postponed its goal of reaching a GDP of 1 trillion yuan from 2027 to 2027 due to various macroeconomic and industrial factors [2]. Housing Market Dynamics - In July, second-hand housing prices in Taiyuan increased by 0.2% month-on-month, while the year-on-year decline was 4.6% [1][5]. - Taiyuan is the only city among 70 major cities in China to report a month-on-month increase in second-hand housing prices in July [1][3]. - The new housing market in Taiyuan saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% in July, but a year-on-year increase of 1.0% [5]. Regional Price Trends - The second-hand housing market in Taiyuan shows signs of stability, with some areas experiencing slight price increases [3][4]. - Specific districts in Taiyuan, such as Yingze and Wanbailin, reported month-on-month price increases of 0.37% and 0.05%, respectively [3]. Market Challenges - Despite the short-term rebound in second-hand housing prices, the overall market remains under pressure, with a year-to-date average price decline of 4.8% [5][6]. - The real estate market is facing a dilemma where sellers are reluctant to lower prices, while buyers are unwilling to purchase at current prices, leading to prolonged transaction cycles [7][8]. Policy Implications - The central government emphasizes the need for effective measures to stabilize the real estate market, including urban renewal and improving housing supply [8][9]. - Future policies may focus on enhancing the quality of housing supply and addressing the large inventory of unsold properties [9].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a phase of stabilization, but significant efforts are still needed to ensure a complete recovery, as evidenced by the mixed performance of housing prices across different cities [8][9]. National Real Estate Market Overview - In July, the second-hand housing prices in 70 major cities in China saw a general decline, with first-tier cities dropping by 1.0%, and second and third-tier cities both decreasing by 0.5% [1][8]. - Only one city, Taiyuan, experienced a slight increase in second-hand housing prices, rising by 0.2% month-on-month, while the year-on-year figure showed a decline of 4.6% [1][4]. Taiyuan's Economic and Housing Market Analysis - Taiyuan's GDP reached 5418 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 1.2%, which is significantly lower than the national average of 3.8% [3][4]. - The city had previously set an ambitious goal to reach a GDP of 1 trillion yuan by 2025, but this target has now been postponed to 2027 due to various macroeconomic challenges [3][4]. Housing Price Trends in Taiyuan - Despite the overall economic challenges, Taiyuan's new housing prices have shown a trend of slight increases, while second-hand housing prices have been more volatile, with a recent short-term rebound [4][7]. - In July, new housing prices in Taiyuan decreased by 0.2% month-on-month but increased by 1.0% year-on-year, indicating a mixed market response [4][7]. Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The second-hand housing market in Taiyuan is characterized by a temporary rebound, but long-term price pressures remain significant due to a higher number of properties for sale compared to those being sold [6][7]. - The overall national real estate market is still in a deep adjustment phase, with many cities facing challenges in balancing supply and demand, leading to prolonged transaction cycles [8][9]. Policy Implications - The Chinese government is emphasizing the need for effective measures to stabilize the real estate market, including urban renewal initiatives and support for housing demand [9][10]. - Recent policy adjustments in major cities like Beijing are expected to be followed by similar measures in Shanghai and Shenzhen, indicating a potential shift towards more supportive housing policies [9][10].