固 定 收 益 研 究 固定收益月报 信用债收益率下行，上海楼市新政将推动预期改善 ――信用债 3 月投资策略展望 分析师：李济安 SAC NO：S1150522060001 2026 年 3 月 3 日 核心观点： 交易商协会公布的发行指导利率多数下行，整体变化幅度为-6BP 至 1BP。 受节假日因素影响，2 月信用债发行规模环比下降，各品种发行金额均环比减少； 信用债净融资额环比减少，企业债、定向工具净融资额环比增加，其余品种净 融资额环比减少，企业债净融资额为负，其余品种净融资额为正。二级市场方 面，2 月信用债成交规模环比下降，各品种成交金额均减少。收益率方面，2 月 信用债表现较好，各品种收益率月度均值均环比下行。信用利差方面，2 月多数 品种信用利差月度均值环比收窄。分位数来看，多数品种利差均处于历史低位， 7 年期品种分位数相对较高。绝对收益角度来看，供给不足和相对旺盛的配置需 求将推动信用债延续修复行情，尽管多空因素影响下震荡调整难以避免，但总 体而言，信用债全面走熊的条件依旧不充分，长远来看未来收益率仍在下行通 道，逢调整则增配的思路依然可行。相对收益角度来看，现阶段各期限的信用 利差压缩 ...

国金证券认为，当前房地产市场已进入止跌回稳的关键验证期。春节假期后，核心城市二手房挂牌量普 遍出现回升。未来2个月核心城市二手房挂牌量回升的幅度和持续性将成为影响后续房价走势的关键变 量。 内房股普遍下挫，截至发稿，富力地产(02777)跌9.09%，报0.5港元；金辉控股(09993)跌7.88%，报1.52 港元；融创中国(01918)跌6.4%，报1.17港元。 消息面上，据克而瑞地产研究，2026年2月受春节假期影响，全国重点50城的新房市场整体成交仍较为 清淡。但重点15城1-2月二手房累计成交面积约1509万平方米，同比微增2%。2月中央及地方政策持续 释放利好，月底上海"沪七条"更释放出积极的政策趋势信号，有利于提振全国市场预期。 ...

中信证券研究 文|陈聪 张全国 刘东航 陈兆儒 上海等地积极释放真实住房需求，有助于二手房市场止跌回稳。商业不动产REITs的发展，则为房地产 企业提供了全新的未来。我们看好优秀房企的资产负债表修复。 ▍春节之后，止跌回稳的政策持续，上海进一步优化调整房地产政策。 根据上海住建委官网，2026年2月25日，上海多部门联合印发通知，进一步调减住房限购政策，优化住 房公积金贷款政策，完善个人住房房产税政策。2025年8月8日、8月25日，9月5日，京沪深分别放松房 地产政策。2025年12月24日，北京再次放松限购政策。上海作为核心城市，相关政策的优化对于稳定房 地产市场预期较为重要。 ▍提高公积金贷款支持力度。 各地公积金个贷率还有提升的空间。此番上海将公积金贷款最高额度上调至240万元，叠加上浮政策最 高可达324万元。由于此前房价惯性下行，住房价格成交的中位数已经不高。例如，根据深圳楼市大数 据，2025年深圳二手房成交中位数334万元，个别月接近300万元。此消彼长，我们认为公积金贷款的吸 引力在明显提升。 ▍限购放开带来增量需求，更有助于扭转二手供给扩大的预期。 此次限购政策调整大幅调降了非沪籍居民在沪 ...

Group 1 - During the Spring Festival travel period, the inter-regional mobility of personnel in Guangdong reached over 20 million business entities [1] - The low-altitude economy is set to benefit from favorable policies, with the "Greater Bay Chicken" sports carnival about to commence [1] - Positive signals are emerging in the real estate market, indicating that conditions for stabilization and recovery are in place [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the worst period for the real estate industry is gradually passing, with positive signals emerging from the market and policy support in place for recovery [1][4] - According to CITIC Securities, 58 out of 78 listed real estate companies reported losses, with total net losses estimated between 206.04 billion and 239.75 billion yuan for 2025, while the net loss for 2024 was 161.4 billion yuan [1][2] - The average decline in new and second-hand housing prices in 70 major cities is 12.6% and 21.3% respectively from their peak, indicating a significant market adjustment [2][4] Group 2 - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan suggests that the fundamental bottom of the real estate market is approaching, with new construction down 75% since the peak in 2021, exceeding declines in the US, Japan, and Germany [4][6] - The pressure from inventory impairment for mainstream real estate companies is gradually being released, with cumulative asset and credit impairment losses reaching 8% of average inventory from 2019 to the first half of 2025 [4][6] - The central government emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market, with recent policy shifts indicating a more proactive approach to support the sector [5][6] Group 3 - The cash flow situation for households remains healthy, which supports the potential for continued recovery in corporate operating cash flow [3] - The shift in financing from credit bonds to project financing, such as REITs and property operation loans, is helping to resolve the mismatch between assets and liabilities for companies [3] - The introduction of commercial real estate REITs is expected to enhance the efficiency of issuance and accelerate the securitization of quality assets, benefiting the overall real estate sector [2][3]

Group 1: Gold and Silver Market Dynamics - Recent fluctuations in gold and silver prices have led to significant market reactions, with gold experiencing its largest single-day drop since 1983 and silver prices plummeting by as much as 36% in a single day [1] - The Shenzhen Shui Bei market has shown a split response, with some investors engaging in panic selling while others are seizing the opportunity to buy at lower prices, leading to a surge in gold purchases [1][2] - Many banks have issued risk warnings, advising investors to approach the market with caution and avoid impulsive trading behaviors [1] Group 2: Real Estate Sector Outlook - The A-share and Hong Kong real estate sectors have shown strong performance, with several brokerage firms indicating that despite ongoing profit pressures, positive signals are emerging in the market [2] - Factors contributing to this stabilization include a slight decrease in the number of second-hand homes listed in major cities, supportive policy measures, and historically low valuations in the sector [2] - Institutions like CITIC Securities and Shenwan Hongyuan suggest that the most challenging period for the real estate sector may be over, recommending a focus on high-quality companies with core resources and operational capabilities [2] Group 3: Telecommunications Tax Changes - Major Chinese telecom operators, including China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom, announced a tax adjustment that will increase the VAT rate on mobile data, SMS, and broadband services from 6% to 9% starting January 1, 2026 [3] - This change is expected to have a direct impact on the revenue and profit margins of these telecom companies [3] Group 4: Federal Reserve Leadership Changes - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair by Trump has caused significant market turbulence and a reevaluation of the Fed's role [4] - Warsh's reformist stance is anticipated to lead to aggressive interest rate cuts and a reduction of the Fed's balance sheet, aiming to diminish the Fed's power and size [4] - However, his radical approach may heighten tensions within the Fed and the broader market, facing substantial resistance and uncertainty [4] Group 5: Shenzhen Economic Performance - Shenzhen's GDP reached 3.87 trillion yuan in 2025, marking a 5.5% year-on-year growth, the highest among the top five cities [5] - The city is recognized as a leader in industrial output and foreign trade, contributing 10% of the national total [5] - Shenzhen also excels in various key areas, including the total number of business entities, R&D investment intensity, international patent applications, and cross-border e-commerce scale [5] Group 6: Capital Market Regulation - Regulatory authorities have emphasized the need to consolidate the positive momentum in capital markets, focusing on risk prevention, enhanced regulation, and promoting high-quality development [6] - Plans to deepen reforms in the ChiNext board and implement measures to support new productive forces have been outlined [6] - The guidelines for strategic investors indicate a minimum holding ratio of 5%, encouraging long-term capital to engage more deeply in corporate governance [6] Group 7: Banking Sector Adjustments - Ningbo Bank has reduced its interest rate on demand deposits to 0%, with other banks also lowering rates on gold accounts due to increased market volatility [8] - This trend is part of a broader strategy to manage risks and lower funding costs, potentially paving the way for future reductions in loan interest rates [8] Group 8: Silver Market Auction - A silver building in Hunan, constructed with 2.5 tons of silver, is set to be auctioned at a valuation of only 6.88 yuan per gram, significantly below market prices, raising public interest in asset valuation methods [7] Group 9: Oracle's Financial Challenges - Oracle is facing significant financial pressure due to aggressive expansion in AI data centers, leading to considerations of layoffs affecting 20,000 to 30,000 employees and potential divestitures of its Cerner medical software division [10] - The company has seen its stock and bond prices under pressure as several banks have ceased lending to its data center projects, exacerbating its financing challenges [10]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sector in A-shares and Hong Kong has shown strong performance, with A-share real estate index rising over 5% during the week of January 26 to January 30, 2025. Despite profit pressures for 2025, there are positive signals indicating a potential stabilization in the market by 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Performance and Forecast - A total of 78 A-share real estate companies released performance forecasts, with 58 companies expecting losses, 6 companies projecting profit increases, and 18 companies not providing forecasts. The estimated net loss for the A-share real estate sector in 2025 is projected to be between 198.42 billion and 145.5 billion yuan, compared to a net loss of 161.4 billion yuan in 2024 [1]. - According to CITIC Securities, the decline in performance reflects the market adjustments over the past few years, but there are emerging positive signals, such as a slight decrease in second-hand housing listings in major cities and increased buyer confidence due to supportive media coverage [2][3]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Recovery Signals - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan Securities suggests that the most challenging period for real estate companies may be coming to an end, as the fundamentals of the real estate market are nearing a bottom after over four years of adjustment. New construction starts have decreased by 75% since the peak in 2021, and second-hand housing prices have dropped by 40% since the same peak [2]. - The construction of a multi-level REITs market is seen as a positive factor for the real estate sector, potentially alleviating some of the financial pressures faced by companies [2]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - CITIC Securities recommends focusing on "operating assets" and emphasizes the advantages of developers with core resources and operational capabilities. The report indicates that the industry is likely to see a recovery in profitability for quality real estate companies sooner and with greater elasticity due to improved market conditions and historical low valuations [5]. - The central government's recent emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market and the positive media coverage are expected to contribute to a more favorable policy environment, further supporting the recovery of the sector [5].

Core Viewpoint - The stabilization of total demand in core cities, along with long-term factors such as rental yield and price-to-income ratio nearing valuation bottoms, collectively determine the direction of the real estate market's recovery in 2026. The pace of this recovery will depend on short-term factors like rental prices and the volume of second-hand housing listings [2][38]. Group 1: Positive Changes in the Real Estate Market - Since the beginning of 2026, the real estate market has shown positive changes in both "volume" and "price." The transaction volume of second-hand homes in key cities has increased, with a year-on-year decline in transaction area narrowing to -13.0% as of January 25, compared to -26.8% the previous month. The weekly transaction area reached 2.79 million square meters, the highest since June 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate turning positive at 17.7% [4][5]. - In January, the transaction prices of second-hand homes have ended the accelerated decline seen since June 2025, with a month-on-month decrease of only -0.7%, an improvement from the previous half-year's average decline of around -1.3% [9]. Group 2: Short-term Factors Behind Positive Changes - The increase in second-hand home transactions is primarily due to the "seesaw" effect between new and second-hand home demand. As the market enters a stock era, the sales of new and second-hand homes often offset each other. In December 2025, new home sales in 40 cities rebounded, while second-hand home sales remained relatively flat [13]. - The narrowing of price declines is influenced by seasonal factors, with sellers becoming more hesitant to lower prices as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to a slowdown in price drops [14]. Group 3: Long-term Support Factors - The cumulative price decline, rental yield, and price-to-income ratio indicate that the real estate market in most cities is nearing valuation bottoms. The total housing demand in core cities has stabilized, suggesting that the market is beginning to meet conditions for recovery [20]. - The total demand for residential properties in key cities has stabilized, with new home sales in 2025 at 174 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 11.6%. However, this decline is more due to the increased share of second-hand home transactions rather than a decrease in overall housing demand [21]. Group 4: Rental Yield and Price-to-Income Ratio - As of December 2025, the rental yield in 100 cities has risen to 2.39%, approaching the 2.6% public housing loan rate, indicating a reasonable gap between rental yield and borrowing costs [31]. - The price-to-income ratio has shifted significantly during this downturn, with many properties transitioning from investment assets to consumer goods. The price-to-income ratio in most cities has returned to levels below those seen in 2006, indicating a reduction in valuation bubbles [35][36]. Group 5: Market Recovery Dynamics - The stabilization of total demand in core cities and the nearing of valuation bottoms for rental yield and price-to-income ratio will influence the pace of the real estate market's recovery. The rental prices and the volume of second-hand home listings will be critical short-term factors [38][43]. - The upcoming "Golden March and Silver April" period will be a key window for assessing the market's recovery pace, with optimistic scenarios suggesting stable rental prices and second-hand home listings, while conservative scenarios may see renewed pressure from increased listings [44][45].

Policy Environment - The central government maintains a "stop decline and stabilize" policy for 2025, focusing on urban renewal, activating demand, and optimizing supply structures [8][10] - In Hangzhou, 2025 policies primarily aim to stimulate demand through credit optimization and subsidies, with a significant emphasis on home purchase subsidies [10][21] - The overall purchasing restrictions in Hangzhou are at their most relaxed level in history, with no limits on purchases, sales, prices, or loans [21] Land Market - The land market in Hangzhou shows a "hot first, cold later" trend, with a 15% year-on-year increase in transaction area and a 5% rise in floor prices [32][38] - The supply of land is expected to decrease by 36% compared to 2024, with a completion rate of 90% for the actual land sold [30][32] - Five districts in Hangzhou saw an increase in land transaction volume, while six districts experienced a rise in floor prices, indicating a competitive land market [34] Residential Market - The new housing market in Hangzhou has seen a continuous decline in supply and demand for four consecutive years, with average transaction prices rising to 34,500 yuan per square meter [10] - The secondary housing market is dominated by first-time buyers, with 66% of transactions occurring for properties priced under 3 million yuan [10] - Future trends indicate a continued focus on high-quality land and a gradual transition to a stock market era, with an emphasis on improving product quality [10][32] Future Trends - The policies are expected to remain loose, with a focus on high-quality land and a significant increase in the quality of new housing products [10][32] - The market is gradually transitioning towards a stock era, with ongoing emphasis on affordable housing and low-cost products in the secondary market [10][32]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the real estate policy environment in China continues to be relaxed, with a focus on stabilizing the market and transforming new growth drivers in the sector [1][2] - In December 2025, local governments issued a total of 51 real estate regulatory policies, with 44 being expansionary, primarily involving home purchase subsidies, optimization of housing purchase restrictions, and increased support for housing provident fund policies [1] - The cumulative number of real estate regulatory policies issued by local governments in 2025 reached 455, with 82.4% being expansionary policies, reflecting a multi-faceted support system focusing on controlling supply, reducing inventory, optimizing supply, and promoting transformation [2] Group 2 - In December 2025, the sales prices of new residential properties in 70 major cities showed a month-on-month decline, with first-tier cities showing signs of recovery, as the price drop narrowed by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [2][3] - The overall funding environment remained stable and loose, with the central bank effectively managing liquidity through various operations, including a net injection of 2,819 billion yuan from reverse repos [3] - The upcoming 2026 real estate work plan will focus on three main lines: implementing city-specific policies to control supply, enhancing the role of the "white list" system for real estate projects, and accelerating the establishment of a new development model for the real estate sector [3]