智通财经APP获悉，克而瑞地产研究发文称，2025年代建新增规模TOP20企业的新增签约建面达21926 万平方米，同比增幅16%，增速较2024年提升6个百分点，仍低于2023年。从新增规模的梯队分布来 看，已有10家企业年内新增代建规模超1000万平方米，较去年同期增加5家，按次序分别为绿城管理 (09979)、旭辉建管、润地管理、蓝城集团、金地管理、龙湖龙智造、招商建管、新城建管、远洋建 管、金建管。 01 TOP20新拓总量同比增长16% 已有10家企业新签约规模超千万方 在房地产市场延续止跌回稳大趋势的背景下，2025年以来头部代建企业扩张意愿强烈，拓展规模显著提 升，逆转了2024年拓展"失速"的态势。 (资料图片) 2025年代建新增规模TOP20企业的新增签约建面达21926万平方米，同比增幅16%，增速较2024年提升6 个百分点，仍低于2023年。从新增规模的梯队分布来看，已有10家企业年内新增代建规模超1000万平方 米，较去年同期增加5家，按次序分别为绿城管理、旭辉建管、润地管理、蓝城集团、金地管理、龙湖 龙智造、招商建管、新城建管、远洋建管、金建管。 代建项目新拓难度加码，但头部企业 ...

为贯彻落实《贵阳市住房和城乡建设局等10部门关于印发<贵阳贵安促进房地产市场止跌回稳若干措施 >的通知》(筑建通〔2025〕177号)，积极支持我市居民多样化改善性住房需求，减轻换购成本，提升换 购效率，进一步畅通新房与二手房交易渠道，激活住房消费潜力，贵阳市住房和城乡建设局、贵阳市房 地产业协会、贵阳市房地产中介机构管理行业协会联合组织开展商品房"以旧换新"活动。具体活动内容 如下： 一、参与对象 (一)自愿参与"以旧换新"活动，计划出售本市二手商品住房(以下简称：旧房)并在本市购买新建商品住 房(以下简称：新房)的换房人(新房购买人可以是旧房产权人的直系亲属，"以旧换新"消费券、个人所得 税退税优惠等相关政策支持以政策实施具体要求为准)。 (二)自愿参与"以旧换新"活动的房地产开发企业。 (三)自愿参与"以旧换新"活动的房地产中介机构。 (四)支持住房"以旧换新"活动的商业银行。 二、活动要求 (一)参与活动的房地产开发企业。遵守相关法律法规及行业管理要求，开发经营行为规范，能够积极妥 善化解矛盾纠纷及遗留问题，参与活动的新建商品房项目符合销售条件，且建设手续齐备、施工进度正 常，建设资金有保障，能够确保 ...

行 业 研 究 2025 年 12 月 28 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 ——行业周报 qidong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522010002 《北京再次放宽限购，激活年末市场 热度—行业点评报告》-2025.12.24 《新房二手房成交面积环比增长，住 建部强调促进地产市场供需平衡—行 业周报》-2025.12.21 《高基数下销售疲软，年末市场延续 以 价 换 量 趋 势 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.12.15 新房二手房成交面积环比增长，北京进一步优化调整 住房限购政策 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | duzhiyuan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | 证书编号：S07901240 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative outlook for the real estate development and operation industry, with ongoing challenges in sales and investment performance [5][16][41]. Core Insights - The real estate sector continues to face a downturn, with sales and investment levels declining significantly, leading to a negative impact on national fixed asset investment growth [7][16]. - The financing environment remains loose, but improvements in financing for real estate companies have been limited, resulting in reduced investment enthusiasm [5][16]. - The industry is experiencing a shift in competitive dynamics, with state-owned enterprises increasingly taking over land acquisition from private firms amid ongoing market adjustments [5][36]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Fundamentals - The real estate sales market remains sluggish, contributing to a decline in national fixed asset investment, with a 0.5% year-on-year decrease recorded in the first three quarters of 2025 [7][16]. - Real estate development investment fell by 13.9% year-on-year, exacerbating the overall investment decline [7][16]. 2. Sales Performance - From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area and sales amount of commercial housing decreased by 7.8% and 11.1% year-on-year, respectively [22][23]. - The average price of commercial housing was 9,546 yuan per square meter, down 3.43% from the previous year [22][23]. 3. Financial Performance - The industry is experiencing a downward trend in revenue and profit, with total revenue and profit growth rates showing double-digit declines for the first time in 2024 [41][44]. - The operating profit margin has decreased, and the total asset return rate remains negative, indicating ongoing profitability challenges [44][47]. 4. Leverage and Debt Management - The debt leverage remains high, with the asset-liability ratio excluding advance receipts increasing, indicating a need for careful management of cash flow and refinancing [51][52]. - The cash-to-short-term debt ratio has weakened, reflecting liquidity pressures faced by real estate companies [53][55]. 5. Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape is shifting, with state-owned enterprises gaining market share as private firms face liquidity challenges [36][37]. - The concentration of sales among the top 10 real estate companies has decreased, but their share of new value added has increased, suggesting a potential reversal in concentration trends [36][37]. 6. Financing Environment - The average financing cost for real estate companies has decreased in a low-interest-rate environment, but the reliance on external guarantees for bond issuance remains high among non-state-owned firms [59][60]. - The net financing of domestic credit bonds for real estate companies has shown a significant outflow, indicating a lack of confidence in the market [33][59].

期货从业证号： F03113636 投资咨询证号： 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 12 月 23 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：戚纯怡 :qichunyi_qh@chinastock.c om.cn 1/ 10 Z0018817 :021-65789253 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 第二部分 市场研判 【相关价格】 现货：网价上海中天螺纹 3290 元（+20），北京敬业 3130 元（-），上海鞍钢热 卷 3270 元（-），天津河钢热卷 3180 元（-）。 【交易策略】 今日钢价整体维持震荡，钢材现货成交整体一般偏弱，投机情绪较弱，刚需逐渐 走弱。上周钢联数据公布，铁水产量下滑，五大材继续减产，但减产速度有所放缓， 其中螺纹增产而热轧快速减产；钢材总库存加速，社库去化速度比厂库更快；由于近 期温度及资金表现尚可，螺纹需求环比修复，但热轧需求加速下滑。近期高炉利润有 所修复，预计下周铁水产量可能有所复产；近期煤矿受环保因素影响供应可能收缩， 钢厂也存在补库预期，pb 粉结构性短缺问题尚未解决，进口利润亏损支撑铁矿价格， 钢材成本存在支撑；尽管建材需求季节性下滑，但制 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that new housing transaction areas for both new and second-hand homes have decreased year-on-year, emphasizing the need to stabilize the real estate market [3] - The overall trend in the real estate market is moving towards stabilization, supported by various policies aimed at halting the decline [8] - The report highlights that while new home prices have shown a slight decrease, the decline in second-hand home prices has remained stable [21] Summary by Sections New Housing Prices - In November 2025, new housing prices in first, second, and third-tier cities decreased by -0.4%, -0.3%, and -0.4% respectively, with the overall decline in 70 cities being -0.4%, a reduction in the rate of decline compared to October [15][17] - Year-on-year, new housing prices in first, second, and third-tier cities fell by -1.2%, -2.2%, and -3.5%, leading to an overall year-on-year decline of 2.8% across 70 cities [15][17] Second-Hand Housing Prices - The second-hand housing prices in November 2025 saw a month-on-month decline of -0.7%, with first, second, and third-tier cities experiencing declines of -1.1%, -0.6%, and -0.6% respectively [21] - Year-on-year, second-hand housing prices across 70 cities decreased by -5.7%, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing declines of -5.8%, -5.6%, and -5.8% respectively [21] Market Performance in Key Cities - In November 2025, new housing prices in key cities showed mixed results, with cities like Shanghai leading with a year-on-year increase of +5.1% [29][30] - The report notes that second-hand housing prices in 35 key cities have uniformly declined, with significant drops in cities like Chengdu and Hohhot [30] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on real estate companies with strong credit ratings and good fundamentals in cities, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Merchants Shekou [8] - It also suggests companies that benefit from both residential and commercial real estate sectors, like China Resources Land and Longfor Group, as well as high-quality property management firms under the "Good House, Good Service" policy [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [9] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the inventory of unsold properties continues to decrease, and the month-on-month decline in new construction and completions is narrowing, suggesting a gradual stabilization in the real estate market [6][4] - The report highlights that while there are short-term fluctuations in sales, the overall trend is moving towards stabilization, with key actions needed to enhance rental returns and accelerate inventory reduction [6][4] Summary by Sections Sales and Inventory - In November, the national sales area of commercial housing decreased by 17.3% year-on-year, with sales amount dropping by 25.1%. The decline in sales area and amount has narrowed compared to October [6] - As of the end of November, the unsold housing inventory stood at 750 million square meters, marking a continuous reduction for nine months, indicating effective inventory clearance [6] Investment and Construction - National real estate investment in November fell by 30.3% year-on-year, with new construction down by 27.6% and completions down by 25.5%. However, the month-on-month decline in new construction has narrowed compared to October [6] - The report notes that funding for real estate development has decreased by 32.5% year-on-year, with domestic loans down by 10.4% and personal mortgage loans down by 34.7% [6] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that sales will remain under pressure in Q1 2026 due to high base effects, but improvements are expected in the second half of 2026 as various positive factors converge [6] - It suggests focusing on companies with optimized inventory structures and strong land acquisition capabilities, such as China Resources Land and Jianfa International, which are likely to benefit from the "good housing" initiative [6]

Group 1 - The majority of Chinese property stocks have declined, with notable drops including China Overseas Grand Oceans Group down 4.85% to HKD 1.96, Yujule Group down 4.76% to HKD 0.3, Shimao Group down 3.37% to HKD 0.201, and R&F Properties down 2.94% to HKD 0.66 [1][1][1] - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing nationwide decreased by 7.8% year-on-year, and sales revenue fell by 11.1% year-on-year [1][1][1] - Investment, new construction, and completion areas in the real estate sector continued to decline year-on-year during the same period, indicating that the overall real estate market remains in an adjustment phase [1][1][1] Group 2 - Open Source Securities noted that under various policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, the market is gradually moving towards stabilization since 2025, although prices may still experience slight fluctuations [1][1][1] - The expectation is that with more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, the existing housing supply and demand relationship will improve, accelerating the stabilization process of the real estate market [1][1][1]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is showing signs of stabilization in 2026, with core indicators indicating a narrowing decline, although overall market sentiment remains weak due to inventory pressure and market expectations [2][4][12]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Most research institutions predict that the real estate market will stabilize in 2026, with high-quality assets in core cities likely to recover first due to policy support and demand [2][4][12]. - The development logic of the industry is shifting from "incremental expansion" to "stock optimization," focusing on affordable housing, urban renewal, and the construction of quality homes [2][4][12]. Group 2: Policy Environment - The policy environment remains supportive, with continued easing measures such as lower commercial and provident fund loan rates, and the gradual removal of restrictions in first-tier cities [4][12][15]. - The central government emphasizes the need for a new model in real estate, focusing on optimizing supply and promoting high-quality development [12][20]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The overall transaction volume and prices in the real estate market are stabilizing, with core city inventories manageable and some third- and fourth-tier cities showing signs of bottoming out [5][7][19]. - The willingness of residents to leverage their finances is low, influenced by housing prices and income expectations, while the supply side remains under pressure due to high inventory levels [4][5][7]. Group 4: Investment and Sales Projections - In a neutral scenario, total housing transaction volume is expected to decline by 5.0% in 2026, with new and second-hand homes projected to drop by 6.9% and 2.6% respectively [8][15]. - Real estate investment is anticipated to remain under pressure, with a projected decline of 14.9% in 2026, although the pace of decline may slow [8][15][19]. Group 5: Company Strategies - Real estate companies are expected to shift their focus towards product competitiveness, operational capacity enhancement, and risk management in response to the evolving market conditions [11][15][19]. - The emphasis on "good housing" standards will lead to a more diversified approach to housing choices, focusing on safety, comfort, and community service quality [11][12].

转自：北京日报客户端 2025年，在持续宽松的政策环境下，我国房地产多项核心指标降幅有所收窄并出现逐步企稳的迹象，但 是受市场预期和库存压力等因素影响，市场总体仍然偏弱。2026年是"十五五"规划开局之年，房地产如 何发展，对国民经济和社会发展将产生至关重要的影响。 时值岁末，各家证券研究机构陆续推出对2026年房地产市场走势的研判。多数机构认为，2026年房地产 市场将整体趋稳，核心城市优质资产有望在政策优化与需求支撑下率先企稳，而低能级城市仍面临去化 压力。行业发展逻辑从"增量扩张"转向"存量优化"，保障性住房、城市更新、"好房子"建设等领域成重 要发展方向。随着政策端的持续呵护与实体经济的回暖，未来基本面将大概率实现企稳。 平安证券：政策延续呵护 2025 年全国楼市先扬后抑， 预期偏弱与库存高企为政策未见明显成效主因，需求端受房价及收入预期 影响，居民加杠杆意愿不强；供给端开工未售去化周期仍处于高位。同时"好房子"对旧规产品分流逐步 显现，二手房"以价换量"占比持续提升。自"4·30"政治局会议明确"持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势"以 来，商业贷款及公积金贷款利率进一步下调，一线城市限制政策陆续退出。 展 ...