春节假期，楼市交易不停。记者注意到，2026年春节期间，房企紧抓购房窗口期，多个楼盘"春节不打 烊"，还通过开展新春促销活动、推出特价房等方式积极营销。 北京市丰台区一处在售楼盘的销售顾问对记者表示，春节假期叠加促销政策，让年前已经看过房的客户 选择带家人回访，确定成交意向。 春节期间，北京多处新房楼盘推出形式多样的新春置业活动，包括"一口价"特价房，购房送家电大礼包 等。据广州市房地产行业协会统计，随着广州市"迎新春.购新房.过暖冬"系列商品房展销促销活动开 启，从春节前到3月31日，全市11区相关房地产企业陆续推出促销活动，近50家房地产企业超140个楼盘 推出迎新春优惠大礼包。 "今年春节期间，部分楼盘热度突出，促销策略到位、有家具家电或装修大礼包且价格适宜的刚需盘去 化较好。"广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉分析称，该类楼盘客户往往是在城市上班的年轻 人，基于收入积蓄考虑，一直在观望，过年期间父母带看房时，希望子女早日安居，在首付上、购房决 策上给予支持，加速了购房行动。 在李宇嘉看来，今年春节，返乡置业表现尚好。一方面是因为假期较长，回乡人员比去年多，同时很多 回乡人员计划在乡村、县域二次就业 ...

"节后开发商冲击开门红，推盘积极性上升，加上基于就业、入学、结婚等方面需求，交易回升有确定性。" 记者｜陈利 编辑｜陈梦妤 楼市止跌信号越来越明显了。 2月13日，国家统计局公布的2026年1月70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格变动情况显示，一二三线城市商品住宅销售价格环比降幅总体收窄。 其中，1月有5城新建商品住宅销售价格环比上涨，大连涨0.2%领跑；北京、广州、深圳环比分别跌0.3%、跌0.6%和跌0.4%，上海环比持平。 "房价延续结构性调整、筑底修复的核心特征，整体虽未摆脱普跌格局，但需求端韧性凸显、流通端积极信号增多，楼市正向企稳修复稳步过渡，政策托 底与市场自发修复的双重作用逐步显现。"58安居客研究院院长张波向《每日经济新闻》记者书面分析指出，尤其是1月核心城市二手房率先企稳，是政策 因素和市场信心修复共同作用的结果。 上海新房价格同比仍涨 国家统计局城市司首席统计师王中华在解读时表示，1月份，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.3%，降幅与上月相同。其中，上海持平，北京、 广州和深圳分别下降0.3%、0.6%和0.4%。而在此之前，上海新房价格已连续上涨了43个月。 同比来看，一线城市新建商品 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall trend of housing prices in major cities is still declining, continuing from the previous year, with expectations for 2026 being low due to the disappointing performance in 2025 [2][5]. New Housing Market - In December 2025, among 70 major cities, 12 cities saw new residential prices either increase or remain stable, an increase of one city from the previous month, but the main trend remains downward [5]. - The city with the highest increase was Shanghai, which saw a mere 0.2% rise, while Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou experienced declines of 0.4%, 0.5%, and 0.6% respectively [5]. - Year-on-year, 10 cities reported stable or increasing new housing prices, an increase of five cities from the previous month, with Shanghai again leading with a 4.8% increase [5]. Second-hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing prices continued to decline, with significant drops in major cities: Beijing down 1.3%, Shenzhen down 0.6%, Guangzhou down 0.6%, and Shanghai down 1% month-on-month [6][7]. - Year-on-year declines for second-hand housing prices were also noted, with Beijing down 8.5%, Shenzhen down 6.1%, Guangzhou down 5.4%, and Shanghai down 7.8% [6][7]. Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment is low, with a need for strong and sustained measures to stabilize the housing market [7].

Investment Rating - The industry rating remains "Overweight" [1][16]. Core Insights - Last week, major cities experienced a decline in real estate transactions due to external uncertainties, but future policies are expected to stabilize the market and promote new development models [1][16]. - In the second week of 2026, new home transactions in 30 major cities totaled 1.03 million square meters, down 67.4% from the previous week and 46.3% year-on-year [17]. - First-tier cities recorded a transaction volume of 320,000 square meters, down 54.9% week-on-week and 50% year-on-year [17]. - Second-tier cities saw transactions of 460,000 square meters, down 76.9% week-on-week and 41% year-on-year [17]. - Third-tier cities had 260,000 square meters in transactions, down 46.3% week-on-week and 50.6% year-on-year [17]. - From January 1-8, 2026, cumulative transactions in 30 cities reached 1.12 million square meters, down 45.35% from December 2025 and 47% year-on-year [17]. - The land transaction growth in 100 cities continued to slow, with land supply at 13.38 million square meters and transactions at 12.19 million square meters, resulting in a supply-to-sales ratio of 1.10 [19]. - The cumulative land transfer amount was RMB 36.20 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 31.9% [19]. Summary by Sections New Home Transactions - In the second week of 2026, new home transactions in major cities totaled 1.03 million square meters, reflecting significant declines across all city tiers [17]. - Cumulative transactions from January 1-8, 2026, were 1.12 million square meters, indicating a substantial drop compared to the previous year [17]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - Second-hand home transactions in 24 cities were 1.84 million square meters, down 9.75% from the previous week and 25.6% year-on-year [18]. - First-tier cities recorded 667,000 square meters in transactions, down 25.4% week-on-week and 33.1% year-on-year [18]. Land Transactions - Land supply in 100 cities was 13.38 million square meters, with transactions at 12.19 million square meters, indicating a continued slowdown in land transaction growth [19]. - The cumulative land transfer amount was RMB 36.20 billion, down 31.9% year-on-year [19]. Inventory and Clearance Cycle - The inventory clearance cycle for 35 cities was 26.17 months, up 5.64% from the previous month and 23.51% year-on-year [20].

Core Insights - A wave of strong housing policies has been implemented across various cities in China, providing direct financial subsidies to homebuyers, signaling a shift from merely supporting developers to addressing the needs of ordinary citizens [2][13]. Group 1: Policy Highlights - In Changzhou, the housing subsidy has been increased to a maximum of 200,000 yuan, covering both new and second-hand homes, with specific eligibility criteria for applicants [2][26]. - The "sell old buy new" incentive has been introduced in Changzhou, allowing buyers to use previous subsidy vouchers for new home purchases, effectively enabling them to benefit from the policy twice [3][26]. - In Quanzhou's Luojiang District, a new subsidy program has been launched, with a focus on smaller housing units, offering higher subsidies for smaller homes [6][26]. Group 2: Targeted Subsidies - In Nanning, the subsidy program targets four specific groups, including newlyweds and families with multiple children, with a total budget of 50 million yuan for the initiative [10][12]. - The subsidy amounts vary based on family size, with families having two children receiving an additional 3,000 yuan and those with three or more children receiving 6,000 yuan [19][26]. - The application process in Luojiang is streamlined, allowing developers to verify eligibility and disburse subsidies directly to buyers upon signing contracts [8][26]. Group 3: Financial Support Measures - Nanning has introduced a "three lows and one wide" financial support scheme, which includes low down payments, low interest rates, and low monthly payments, along with extended loan terms [11][12]. - The maximum loan amounts for first-time homebuyers have been significantly increased, with first-time buyers eligible for loans up to 900,000 yuan at historically low interest rates [12][26]. Group 4: Policy Objectives - The shift in policy focus reflects a transition from merely reducing inventory to enhancing the living standards of citizens and promoting population growth [13][26]. - The new policies are designed to meet genuine housing needs, targeting specific demographics such as low-income workers and families with children, rather than applying a broad approach [13][26].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint suggests that by Q4 2025, housing prices will have returned to 2016 levels, particularly in the more market-oriented second-hand housing market, with variations across different regions [1] - Homeowners who purchased properties before 2016 still have a safety cushion, as their perceived losses are more about "less profit" compared to peak market conditions, while those who bought after 2016 may be facing "real losses" [1] - The introduction of new housing price limits in Shanghai in 2016 led to an eight-year phenomenon of price discrepancies between new and second-hand homes, which has created financial burdens for some homeowners [1] Group 2 - In 2016, the average sales price of new residential properties in Shanghai was 25,910 yuan per square meter, with the average price for marketable residential properties reaching 38,369 yuan per square meter, an 18.85% increase from 2015 [3] - Significant price gradients were observed: properties within the inner ring averaged 87,426 yuan per square meter, while those in the outer ring averaged only 18,127 yuan per square meter, indicating a clear distinction in pricing across different areas [3] - The Huangpu District had the highest average transaction price at 104,589 yuan per square meter, while suburban areas like Jinshan had much lower prices, highlighting the stark contrast in property values across the city [3] Group 3 - Current property prices in Shanghai's core areas, such as Huangpu and central districts like Changning and Jing'an, can still be found at prices reflective of 2016 levels, indicating potential opportunities for buyers [4] - The experience of buyers is influenced by their entry timing into the market, including purchase prices, mortgage payments, and holding costs, leading to distinctions between "real losses" and "less profit" [4]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in 2025 is expected to be in the initial "stabilization" phase, characterized by a "softening decline" in volume and price, with various supply-demand adjustment policies facing implementation bottlenecks [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, the overall performance of the real estate market is influenced by expectations of stabilization, showing positive trends at the beginning of the year, but weakening in the second quarter [2] - The estimated total transaction volume for first and second-hand homes in 2025 is expected to decline by 5.0%, with new homes and second-hand homes decreasing by 6.9% and 2.6% respectively [3] - The cumulative price decline for second-hand homes remains consistent, while the average price decline for new homes is affected by structural factors [2][3] Group 2: Policy and Structural Adjustments - To accelerate the transition from "softening decline" to "stabilization," there are still bottlenecks in the implementation of various supply-demand adjustment policies, such as difficulties in reducing effective inventory through land storage and slow progress in urban village renovations [2] - The company emphasizes the need for the policy side to focus on preemptive measures to control derivative risks, including credit risks of real estate companies and pressures from mortgage defaults [2] Group 3: Future Projections - In a neutral scenario, the company anticipates that the decline in total housing sales will slightly narrow in 2026, with real estate investment potentially stabilizing [3] - If policies exceed expectations, it could lead to a rebound in housing prices, marking a transition to the second phase of stabilization; conversely, if derivative risks escalate, it may prolong the stabilization process [3]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong property market is experiencing a resurgence in transactions, with a notable increase in both secondary and primary property sales [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Last weekend, the top 10 secondary housing estates in Hong Kong recorded 12 transactions, a week-on-week increase of 33.3%, returning to double-digit levels [1] - When considering 15 major estates, there were 16 transactions, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 14.3% [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Market Activity - The recent strong sales of new developments, such as the "woodis" project on Hong Kong Island, which sold 75 units on the first day, are contributing to increased market activity [1] - The reintroduction of interest rate cuts has bolstered buyer confidence, leading to a quicker search for bargains in the secondary market as prices stabilize [1] Group 3: Future Expectations - The overall trading performance in Hong Kong's property market is expected to be active this month, with primary sales projected to exceed 2,000 transactions, indicating a month-on-month increase [1] - The secondary market is also anticipated to see growth compared to September's performance [1]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the real estate market has passed a significant cyclical turning point since 2021, with sales volume and value dropping significantly from their peaks in 2021 to levels comparable to 2010 and 2016 by 2024 [11] - In the first five months of 2025, national commodity housing sales area decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, while sales value fell by 3.8%, indicating a narrow fluctuation in a generally low-volume market [11][12] - The supply of new homes continues to shrink, with a 9.7% year-on-year decline in new residential supply across 69 cities in the first half of 2025, which is a key factor suppressing transaction recovery [13] Group 2 - The report notes that the sales performance of new homes is significantly influenced by the quality of new supply, with the top 20 cities accounting for approximately 68% of sales value in the first half of 2025, reflecting a trend towards concentration in core urban areas [30] - The report indicates that the price index for new homes in 70 major cities showed a year-on-year decline of 4.1% in May 2025, with second-hand home prices also experiencing a decline, suggesting that price stabilization is contingent on a recovery in transaction volumes [24][22] - The report emphasizes that the second-hand housing market remains active, with transaction volumes at historically high levels, and that the proportion of second-hand transactions is increasing, reaching 69% in the first five months of 2025 [43]

Core Insights - The Beijing real estate market is showing signs of recovery as the peak sales season "Golden March and Silver April" comes to an end, with significant increases in transaction volumes and market activity [1][3] Transaction Volume - In March, the transaction area of commercial housing in first-tier cities increased by nearly 95% month-on-month and 18% year-on-year, with Beijing's residential transaction area doubling month-on-month [3] - The number of second-hand housing transactions in Beijing reached 32,662 units from March to April, representing a month-on-month increase of 26.52% and a year-on-year increase of 18.19% [3] - The transaction cycle for quality properties has significantly shortened, with some properties in core areas being sold within days of listing [3] Land Market Activity - The land market in Beijing is also heating up, with high premium transactions becoming more common. For instance, a plot in Haidian District sold for a record price of 102,300 yuan per square meter [6] - This trend indicates strong competition among developers for prime land, reflecting their optimism about the future of the Beijing real estate market [6] Price Trends - Overall housing prices in Beijing are stable, but there is a noticeable divergence in price trends across different regions and property types. The average price of second-hand homes in April was 44,454 yuan per square meter, with some core areas experiencing price increases [8] - New home prices showed a slight month-on-month increase of 0.54%, with high-end projects in prime locations seeing significant price hikes, while some suburban projects are offering discounts to accelerate sales [8] Policy Support - Since September 30, 2024, Beijing has implemented a series of policies to optimize the real estate market, including lowering mortgage rates and reducing down payment requirements, which have effectively lowered barriers for buyers [10] - The first mortgage rate for first-time homebuyers has been reduced to 4.05%, and the minimum social security or tax payment period for non-local families has been shortened [10] Market Outlook - Despite the positive signs in the Beijing real estate market, there are still uncertainties regarding the macroeconomic environment and market inventory that could impact future developments [10][12] - Industry experts believe that the government will continue to support the real estate sector, and if key measures like interest rate cuts are implemented, market expectations may further improve [12] - The recovery may exhibit structural characteristics, with core areas and high-quality projects leading the market, while non-core areas may experience slower recovery [12]