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中国水务(00855):中期核心业务保增长,项目提价步伐料可超预期
ZHONGTAI INTERNATIONAL SECURITIES· 2025-12-02 08:17
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Water Affairs (855 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 6.52, reflecting a potential upside of 10.1% from the current price of HKD 5.92 [5][8]. Core Insights - Despite a decline in overall revenue and net profit for FY26H1, the core water supply business showed resilience with a revenue increase of 4.5% and a sales volume increase of 5.0% [2][5]. - The company has accelerated its water price adjustments, with 8 projects approved for price increases, surpassing the annual target of 8 to 10 projects [3][5]. - A significant reduction in capital expenditure by 31.8% to HKD 12.4 billion in FY26H1 is expected to support the company's high dividend policy [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY26H1, total revenue and net profit decreased by 12.9% and 24.4% year-on-year, amounting to HKD 5.18 billion and HKD 570 million respectively [1][5]. - The water supply connection revenue fell by 28.6% to HKD 560 million, primarily due to fluctuations in the mainland real estate market [1][5]. - The wastewater treatment service revenue increased by 14.5% to HKD 360 million, driven by the Huizhou Mobil project contributing revenue since FY25 [2][5]. Revenue and Profit Forecast Adjustments - The forecast for shareholder net profit has been reduced by 10.8%, 14.8%, and 14.8% for FY26, FY27, and FY28 respectively [5][17]. - The target price adjustment reflects these changes, with the new estimates indicating a decrease in revenue projections for FY26 to HKD 9.899 billion, down from previous forecasts [5][17].