以下文章来源于科创日报 ，作者潇湘 科创日报 . 科创圈都在关注的主流媒体，上海报业集团主管主办，《科创板日报》出品。 今日美股盘中， 甲骨文股价 跌幅扩大至5%，创6月以来新低，股价自9月高点已跌去42%。 对于许多市场人士而言，甲骨文正扮演这轮AI热潮里"煤矿中的金丝雀"角色——这家曾经保守的数 据库巨头，如今已借贷数百亿美元，不仅将自身命运与人工智能热潮紧密相连，同时也正迅速成为 信贷市场乃至全球股市衡量AI风险的风向标。 近月来，交易员们不断蜂拥买入甲骨文的信用违约互换(CDS)合约。鉴于该公司正大规模投入人工 智能领域、在错综复杂的交易网络中扮演核心角色，且信用评级逊于微软和谷歌母公司Alphabet等 同行，这些因素使其CDS合约成为市场对冲乃至做空AI热潮的首选工具。 根据洲际交易所(ICE)数据服务公司的统计，近几个月来，防范该公司未来五年债务违约的成本已攀 升了两倍 ——周三甲骨文5年期CDS利差达到111个基点，相当于每保障1000万美元本金每年需支付 约11.1万美元。 注：甲骨文CDS报价已升至近三年新高（黑线），橙线为CDS指数 巴克莱银行信用策略师Jigar Patel指出，随着人 ...

Group 1 - Oracle is becoming a barometer for AI risk in the credit market, having borrowed hundreds of billions and tying its fate to the AI boom [1] - The cost of Oracle's credit default swaps (CDS) has doubled in recent months, reaching approximately 1.11% on November 19, which translates to about $111,000 for insuring $10 million in principal [1] - CDS trading volume for Oracle surged to around $5 billion over seven weeks, compared to just over $200 million in the same period last year [1] Group 2 - Despite concerns, few believe Oracle will default soon, but a loss of investor confidence in AI could lead to further increases in Oracle's CDS prices, benefiting those who bought the derivatives [2] - Oracle is one of the largest investors in AI, participating in key initiatives like the "Stargate" project alongside OpenAI and SoftBank [2] - Morgan Stanley analysts project Oracle's adjusted net debt will more than double to approximately $290 billion by fiscal year 2028, recommending investors buy its five-year CDS and bonds [2]