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3亿千瓦!十五五储能发展新逻辑
行家说储能· 2025-09-17 11:27
Core Viewpoint - The new energy storage industry is experiencing rapid growth and is expected to play a crucial role in achieving carbon neutrality goals during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans, with significant advancements in technology and market structure anticipated [2][11]. Group 1: New Energy Storage Capacity - By July 2023, the installed capacity of new energy storage in China reached 96.68 million kilowatts (approximately 226 million kilowatt-hours), marking a 30-fold increase compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [6]. - The installed capacity is projected to reach 300 million kilowatts during the 15th Five-Year Plan, driven by an average annual growth rate of around 3% in energy consumption [6][10]. Group 2: Technological Innovation and Application Scenarios - The focus during the 15th Five-Year Plan will be on technological innovation, emphasizing high safety, low cost, long lifespan, and sustainable energy storage solutions [7]. - New energy storage will be integrated into various application scenarios, including power generation, grid support, and load-side storage, with a significant increase in clean energy proportions in large-scale renewable energy bases [7][8]. Group 3: Market Development and Challenges - The new energy storage market is transitioning to a model that combines energy quantity and capacity, with other revenue sources supplementing it [8]. - The industry faces challenges such as safety concerns, intense price competition, and the risk of market saturation, with over 300,000 registered energy storage companies in China [13][17]. Group 4: Future Development Roadmap - The "New Energy Storage Technology Development Roadmap (2025-2035)" outlines goals for installed capacity, targeting over 180 million kilowatts by 2027 and over 240 million kilowatts by 2030 [9][10]. - The roadmap emphasizes the need for diverse storage technologies, including electrochemical, electromagnetic, mechanical, thermal, and hydrogen storage, to meet future energy demands [9]. Group 5: Global Context and Policy Recommendations - China has become the largest market for energy storage, with significant contributions to global supply chains, accounting for 90% of battery shipments and over 70% of system shipments [11]. - The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) has released a report highlighting the importance of energy storage in the transition to renewable energy, recommending policies for market integration and safety standards [14].