Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The price of lithium carbonate is expected to maintain a relatively strong and volatile pattern. There are opportunities for bottom - fishing and long - position layout due to emotional disturbances [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - The lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit again, with the main contract rising to 156,080 yuan/ton. The current market is driven by the resonance of capital flow and policy changes. Short - term capital risk appetite has risen, and funds have concentrated on upstream resource sectors. The adjustment of the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic and battery products has strengthened the market's expectation of short - term demand advancement and increased downstream production scheduling [2]. Fundamental Situation - Impact of export tax rebate adjustment: In the short term, before the tax rebate is gradually reduced, there is an incentive for battery and related products to be exported in advance, which supports the demand for lithium carbonate and its price. In the long term, the complete cancellation of the tax rebate will increase enterprise costs and compress profit margins, and the long - term impact is more reflected in the improvement of industry concentration and the acceleration of global layout [3]. - Supply side: There is still a risk of short - term supply tightness. Domestic policies and overseas fluctuations need to be noted. Domestic policies may affect short - term supply rhythms, and geopolitical and resource policies in Mali and South America have increased the market's expectation of overseas supply instability [3]. - Demand side: The marginal demand for lithium carbonate has weakened at the current stage, but the long - term expectation is still optimistic, especially the demand on the energy storage side is relatively stable. In the short term, the concentrated maintenance of some leading cathode material enterprises is expected to suppress the demand in January, but the expected cathode production scheduling in January has been revised upwards, and the actual demand is better than expected [3]. - Inventory side: The previous continuous destocking of lithium carbonate has ended, and there was a shift from destocking to stockpiling last week. As of January 9, the social inventory was 110,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 337 tons. The slight inventory accumulation is in line with the logic of the phased decline in demand, and the downstream inventory replenishment demand still exists, with limited impact on prices [3]. Summary and Strategy - Although the inventory of lithium carbonate has slightly accumulated, short - term demand is still resilient. The expectation of pre - export by downstream enterprises before the adjustment of the export tax rebate, concerns about overseas resource fluctuations, and the increase in capital risk appetite support the price of lithium. The long - term demand expectation is also optimistic [4].