财政部、国家税务总局于2026年1月9日联合发布《关于调整光伏等产品出口退税政策的公告》。根据公 告，自4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。此次政策调整涉及的产品清单中，明确包含了PVC 粉、未塑化PVC及已塑化PVC。公告发布后，海外需求方采购中国货源的积极性明显提升，国内PVC生 产企业周度接单量维持高位，出口待交付量也不断走高。然而，近期国内PVC出口签单量呈现阶段性回 落态势，这一变化引发了行业的广泛关注。 对此，浙江嘉悦氯碱化工有限公司总经理助理沈健炜在接受期货日报记者采访时表示，当前出口签单量 回落是正常调整，主要受价格空窗期、物流放缓与订单饱和三重因素叠加影响，并非行业基本面发生逆 转，市场无需过度恐慌。 "近期出口签单量回落的核心原因主要集中在两个方面。"沈健炜解释说，一方面，国内PVC签单价格近 期快速上涨，而2月初正处于台塑3月船货报价公布前的价格空窗期，海外市场对高价PVC的投机性采购 意愿趋于谨慎，多数采购商选择持币观望，等待台塑报价发布后重新锚定全球PVC交易基准，这直接导 致国内PVC出口签单量出现下滑。另一方面，国内春节假期期间，物流运输行业进入停滞状态，货物发 运周期拉长 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Yida Co., Ltd. (300721) clarified on its interactive platform that the company does not have TMP products, which helps to eliminate potential market misunderstandings [1] - The epoxy propylene sector experienced a significant price increase in January due to adjustments in export tax policies, with Yida Co., Ltd. seeing a stock price increase of 37.78% in January [1] - However, in early February, industry prices began to correct, leading to market concerns regarding changes in supply and demand dynamics [1] Group 2 - In the recent stock performance, Yida Co., Ltd. showed notable volatility over the past week (February 5 to February 11, 2026), with a slight decline of 0.12% and a fluctuation range of 12.45% [2] - On February 9, the stock price rose by 3.95% to 17.39 yuan, with a trading volume of 436 million yuan; however, it fell by 4.03% to 16.69 yuan on February 10 and further decreased by 1.98% to 16.36 yuan on February 11, indicating a net outflow of 4.5485 million yuan in principal funds [2] - The turnover rate remained high, indicating active short-term trading [2]

Group 1: Shareholder Changes - The controlling shareholder, Jiuyuan Group, plans to transfer part of its shares through a public solicitation of transferees, which may lead to a change in control, pending approval from state-owned asset supervision authorities [2][6] Group 2: Project Development - The cyanide project at the Jingzhou base is still in the preliminary preparation stage, with specific implementation awaiting board approval, and the outcome of this project may impact the company's capacity layout [3] Group 3: Business Progress - The company, as the largest producer of glyphosate raw materials in China, will continue to promote the registration and market expansion of glyphosate in multiple overseas countries to seize growth opportunities. Additionally, the 20,000 tons/year enzymatic glyphosate project at the Hunan Jinshi base has been put into production and is operating normally [4] Group 4: Industry Policy and Environment - Following adjustments to the export tax rebate policy, market orders and prices for glyphosate may experience fluctuations. The company notes that product prices are influenced by multiple factors, including supply and demand and competition. Furthermore, the company supports the industry's anti-"involution" initiative and is committed to promoting sustainable development [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current price of lithium carbonate fluctuates greatly. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, attention should be paid to position risks, and short - term trading should be mainly range - based. However, the fundamentals of lithium carbonate remain good. If the callback is too large, consider going long at low prices after the holiday [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Market Analysis - On February 9, 2026, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 139,500 yuan/ton and closed at 137,000 yuan/ton, with a 3.55% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 305,321 lots, and the open interest was 344,071 lots (the previous day's open interest was 328,575 lots). The current basis was - 3,000 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 34,597 lots, a change of 820 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 131,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton, a change of 1,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 128,000 - 136,000 yuan/ton, also a change of 1,000 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,965 US dollars/ton, a change of 15 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1]. - The downstream material factories' inventory preparation for February is almost over. Most enterprises are turning to cautious waiting and watching, with a low psychological purchase price. Only a few manufacturers still maintain just - in - time purchases. Overall, the market inquiry and trading situation are a bit light [1]. Inventory - According to SMM statistics, the spot inventory was 105,463 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,019 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory was 18,356 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 647 tons; the downstream inventory was 43,657 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,058 tons; other inventories were 43,450 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,430 tons [2]. - The demand market in February is in the traditional off - season. Although the medium - and long - term expectations for energy - storage demand remain optimistic, and there is "rush - export" support due to the adjustment of export tax - refund policies in the first quarter, the short - term purchase demand has slowed down [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range trading. If the callback is large, consider going long at low prices [3]. - Inter - period: None [4] - Inter - variety: None [4] - Spot - futures: None [4] - Options: None [4]

Core Viewpoint - The epoxy propylene sector has experienced a significant price surge since January, with various companies seeing substantial stock price increases, driven by supply-demand dynamics and market speculation [2][3][4]. Price Increase - In January, stock prices of companies related to epoxy propylene saw remarkable increases, with Meibang Technology rising by 67.45% and Hongbaoli by 68.92% [3]. - The benchmark price of epoxy propylene reached 8200.00 yuan/ton by January 30, marking a 6.03% increase from the beginning of the month, with some periods seeing nearly a 10% rise [4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The price increase is attributed to changes in the supply-demand landscape, with reduced operating loads in northern regions and a positive outlook in the downstream market leading to increased purchasing activity [4][5]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates for certain products is expected to drive a surge in orders before the April deadline, further boosting demand for epoxy propylene [5]. Market Trends - Despite the price surge, there are signs of a cooling market as purchasing sentiment declines due to high prices, leading to a potential downward adjustment in prices [6]. - The epoxy propylene industry is currently experiencing an oversupply situation, with low operating rates and expected new capacity additions by 2026 [6][7]. Demand Growth - Although there is oversupply, demand for epoxy propylene is showing slight growth, particularly in the appliance and export sectors, which is helping to sustain overall demand [7]. - The market is expected to experience fluctuations in February, with potential price rebounds later in the month as downstream factories resume operations [8].

第三方行业分析机构InfoLink Consulting认为，当前硅料市场缺乏大宗新单成交，下游采购情绪偏观望，部分硅片企业暂缓采购并期 待价格进一步下探。硅片方面，整体成交价格持续下移，高价成交逐步消失，低价区间不断扩大，库存累积迹象开始显现。在终端需求 偏弱、电池片排产下修的背景下，硅片价格短期内难言企稳，涨价预期相对有限。 中游博弈 光伏产业链价格走势出现阶段性分化。 ▲ 图片由AI生成 光伏产业链价格走势出现阶段性分化。在出口退税政策调整、原材料成本波动以及市场需求结构变化等多重因素作用下，组件及电池片 价格呈现上行态势，而硅料、硅片等上游环节价格承压下行，产业链不同环节的价格传导逻辑和节奏出现明显差异。 道琼斯公司发布的监测数据显示，受白银价格快速上涨、"抢出口"需求集中释放等因素影响，TOPCon组件价格已连续三周上涨，涨 幅超30%，远期合约价格同步抬升。与此同时，多晶硅库存高企、硅片去库压力加大，上游价格重心持续走低。 上游承压 从产业链上游看，多晶硅与硅片环节仍处于明显的去库存周期，价格整体延续下行态势，成为当前光伏供应链中承压最突出的部分。 第三方行业研究机构TrendForce集邦咨询旗 ...

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of the new energy export tax rebate policy has led to a significant decrease in inquiries from overseas customers, particularly price-sensitive clients from the Middle East, causing challenges for small and medium-sized photovoltaic companies in pricing and order acquisition [1][4]. Group 1: Impact of Policy Changes - The adjustment of the export tax rebate policy has resulted in reduced inquiries from overseas clients, particularly those sensitive to price increases [1]. - The price of photovoltaic components has surged due to rising metal prices, with component prices increasing from approximately 0.6 yuan/watt to 0.9 yuan/watt within a month, marking a nearly 50% increase [4]. - The dual impact of policy changes and market conditions is forcing small and medium-sized photovoltaic companies to reassess their survival strategies [4][10]. Group 2: Cost Structure Changes - The cost structure of photovoltaic components has shifted, with silver prices rising over 200% since 2025, leading to silver paste costs becoming the largest cost component, increasing from 17% to 30% of total costs [7][8]. - The average price of silver reached 30,900 yuan/kg by January 29, 2026, reflecting a significant increase from approximately 7,600 yuan/kg at the beginning of 2025 [8]. - Copper and aluminum prices have also risen, with copper prices increasing by 22.1% and aluminum prices rising by 10% in January 2026 compared to the previous year [8][9]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Strategies - The current market dynamics have led to a breakdown in pricing mechanisms, resulting in transaction failures and credit losses among companies [4][10]. - Companies are shifting their inventory strategies, opting to clear stock rather than stockpiling, due to fears of price declines that could lead to significant losses [10]. - Some companies are exploring new materials to reduce costs, such as using fiberglass instead of aluminum for component frames, although acceptance in the market remains low [11]. Group 4: Profitability and Business Diversification - With the main business of photovoltaic components nearing zero profit margins, companies are increasingly relying on inverter and energy storage businesses as key profit drivers [11]. - The profitability of energy storage batteries is relatively high, and companies are leveraging foreign trade operations to mitigate the impact of domestic export tax policy changes [11]. - Long-term sustainability for small and medium-sized photovoltaic companies will require developing their own brands and core technologies rather than relying solely on profit from processing and trading [11].

"1月8日调整新能源出口退税政策出台后，海外客户尤其是中东客户的网络询价减少了许多，他们是价 格敏感型，一听涨价就不买了。"1月29日，一元电气科技有限公司(以下简称一元电气)常驻义乌新能源 市场的销售人员小王(化名)说。 一元电气的主营产品逆变电源(INV)、储能锂电池受到政策影响还不算大。主营光伏组件的苏州乐能光 伏电力股份有限公司(以下简称乐能光伏)销售经理大余(化名)称，如今组件价格涨幅已远远超出税率变 化，背后原因是辅材中的金属价格大涨。 "现在是组件价格跟着金属期货走，上午银价涨了，下午组件就涨价，而且过去客户询价后一周内基本 会下单，现在今天定的价，明天可能就亏了，导致客户观望情绪严重。"大余说。 1月28日起，《每日经济新闻》记者走访了义乌国际商贸城二区东的新能源市场，了解到在出口退税政 策调整叠加银、铜、铝等金属价格大涨的背景下，中小光伏企业陷入报价接单两难困境，这场政策与市 场的双重冲击，正倒逼其重新审视生存策略。 毁约情形愈发严重 小王表示，目前公司没有备货，当前客户下单需等到三、四月份才能完成生产交货，所以公司只涨价 5%~10%，造成的影响是海外客户询价减少了很多。 "目前国内市场供 ...

Price Movement - The lithium carbonate 2605 contract experienced a "first suppression then rise, strong rally at the end" trend, with prices soaring from 147,600 RMB/ton to 181,520 RMB/ton, an increase of approximately 24.16% [2][8] - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose from 151,000 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week (January 19) to 164,500 RMB/ton by Thursday (January 22), a total increase of 13,500 RMB/ton [2][8] - The average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate increased from 147,500 RMB/ton to 161,000 RMB/ton, also a total increase of 13,500 RMB/ton [2][8] Supply Side - According to SMM statistics, some lithium salt manufacturers have begun to schedule maintenance, which is expected to lead to a reduction in output [3][9] - The total weekly output of lithium carbonate was 22,217 tons, down from 22,605 tons the previous week [3][9] - Specific outputs included spodumene-derived lithium carbonate at 13,914 tons (down from 14,124 tons), mica-derived at 2,882 tons (down from 2,936 tons), salt lake-derived at 3,115 tons (down from 3,145 tons), and recycled lithium carbonate at 3,115 tons (down from 3,145 tons) [3][9] Consumption Side - Data from Baichuan indicates that the production of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 20.00% month-on-month, while ternary materials fell by 1.37% [3][9] - The demand for downstream production has increased compared to early month forecasts, but remains down month-on-month [3][9] - The energy storage sector maintains optimistic demand expectations, while the seasonal downturn in power batteries and maintenance schedules at some positive electrode material factories have constrained current procurement demand [3][9] Inventory and Profitability - Current spot inventory stands at 108,896 tons, a decrease of 783 tons month-on-month [4][10] - Smelter inventory is at 19,834 tons (up 107 tons), while downstream inventory is at 37,592 tons (up 1,940 tons), and other inventory is at 51,470 tons (down 2,830 tons) [4][10] - Despite a generally sufficient total import of lithium ore, miners' willingness to maintain prices is strong, leading to rising costs for companies relying on external raw materials, which supports lithium carbonate prices [4][10] Market Strategy - The current price increase relies on supply disruptions and demand front-loading; if supply recovers or demand is overstretched, prices may easily adjust [5][11] - A range-bound trading strategy is recommended, focusing on consumption and inventory turning points, with considerations for selling high to hedge [5][11]

图为我国光伏新增装机容量及同比变化 图为我国硅片市场进出口数量及环比变化 图为我国多晶硅产能和产量变化 近日，财政部、税务总局联合发布公告，自2026年4月1日起，取消包括光伏在内的部分产品增值税出口退税。这是我国一年多 来对光伏等产品出口退税政策实施的第二次重要调整，引发产业链上下游高度关注。公告发布后，市场迅速作出反应，部分企 业开始重新评估生产与出口节奏，行业对短期出口波动及中长期产业影响展开密集研判。 我国光伏行业出口退税政策始于2013年10月，最近两年退税率逐步下降，2024年12月1日起，光伏硅片、电池及组件的出口退税 率从13%降至9%，在当时被视为出口退税取消的过渡。 出口退税曾是光伏企业的重要利润来源之一，目前上游硅料、硅片、电池片等价格持续上涨，但下游组件价格涨势相对滞后， 导致终端利润空间被挤压。取消出口退税意味着"补贴出海"的时代彻底终结，其将重塑光伏行业格局。 多晶硅：短期需求前置长期基本面承压 取消光伏等产品出口退税，对多晶硅市场而言，短期使得需求前置，长期导致基本面承压。自2026年4月1日起，光伏等产品出 口退税全面取消，标志着光伏等产品出口成本结构发生根本性转变，直接推高组 ...