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极米科技(688696):盈利能力显著修复
Huaan Securities· 2025-04-30 10:48
Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintain) [3] Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 results: Revenue of 810 million (YoY -1.89%), net profit attributable to shareholders of 63 million (YoY +337.5%), and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 55 million (YoY +583.3%) [6] - Revenue and profit align with expectations [6] - The company has entered a steady recovery phase, with improved profitability in domestic market share and growth in overseas and vehicle-mounted segments [9] Revenue Analysis - Domestic sales are expected to stabilize despite a slight decline, with the Chinese projection market showing a revenue/sales increase of 0.3%/-0.8% YoY in Q1 2025 [11] - The company is expected to launch new products in the 3k+ price range to further enhance gross margin recovery [11] - International sales are projected to continue double-digit growth, with expansion into Europe, the US, Japan, and Southeast Asia [11] Profit Analysis - Q1 net profit margin improved by 6 percentage points YoY, while it decreased by 6.6% QoQ, primarily due to gross margin improvements [8] - Q1 gross margin was 34% (YoY +6 percentage points, QoQ -2 percentage points), benefiting from structural changes and cost reductions [8] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 4.16 billion, 4.92 billion, and 5.82 billion respectively, with YoY growth rates of +22.2%, +18.1%, and +18.4% [9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 400 million, 530 million, and 650 million for the same period, with YoY growth rates of +230%, +35%, and +22% [9] - Corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 23, 17, and 14 [9] Key Financial Metrics - Major financial indicators for 2025E include revenue of 4.16 billion, net profit of 397 million, and gross margin of 34.3% [12] - Return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise to 12.1% by 2025 [16]