Core Insights - The national carbon market in China is developing steadily, with industry expansion, improved methodologies, and mature market operations, but recent declines in carbon emission allowance (CEA) prices have raised concerns [1] - As of June 27, the average transaction price of CEA was 74.96 yuan/ton, a decrease of approximately 30% from the peak in November of the previous year [1] - Multiple factors, including a significant drop in international energy prices and a loosening of policies, have contributed to the recent decline in carbon prices [2] Market Dynamics - Demand for carbon allowances has weakened due to a decline in thermal power generation, which is the main industry in the national carbon market, with total power generation growth of only 0.1% from January to April, significantly lower than the 6.1% growth in the same period last year [2] - The manufacturing PMI fell below 50% after April, leading to a slowdown in industrial electricity growth, while higher temperatures reduced residential electricity demand [2] - The launch of the national voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market (CCER) and the increase in supply expectations have also contributed to the downward pressure on carbon prices [3][4] Future Price Trends - Despite the current decline, experts believe that carbon prices are likely to stabilize and rise in the long term due to the ongoing push for carbon neutrality and the gradual implementation of industry expansion [1][5] - The carbon price is expected to rise as high-emission industries transition and the renewable energy sector grows, with a higher carbon price incentivizing companies to adopt disruptive technologies [5] Global Influences - China's carbon prices may be influenced by other major global carbon markets, such as the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), which will impose fees on certain products based on carbon market price differences starting in 2026 [6] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has suggested that to meet the Paris Agreement goals, the global average carbon price should exceed $85 per ton by 2030, which could also impact China's carbon pricing [6] Market Structure and Regulation - The EU carbon market serves as a reference for improving the financial attributes of carbon markets globally, with a well-established legal framework and a diverse range of trading products [9] - Experts suggest that financial institutions should be gradually introduced into carbon market trading to enhance liquidity and market activity, while ensuring that carbon prices do not rise too quickly [8][10] - There are challenges in the development of carbon finance in China, including the need for clearer legal definitions regarding carbon emission rights and the limitations on financial institutions' direct participation in the carbon market [8]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 4 月 6 日 全国碳市场：CEA 延续弱势，CCER 市场活跃 度下滑 唐惠珽 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021216 tanghuiting029999@gtjas.com 报告导读： ◼ 本周价格走势：CEA 延续弱势，CCER 市场活跃度下滑 本周，全国碳市场综合价格偏弱运行，收盘价 85.4 元/吨，周环比-0.84%。年同比-2.59%。分年份 看，碳配额 21、22 暂无成交，碳配额 19-20、23 环比上周分别下跌 2.34%、1.08%。全国温室气体自愿 减排交易市场最新单日成交均价 93 元/吨，周环比-1.80%。 全国碳市场周度总成交量约 174 万吨，环比上周增加 40%，符合团队前期"强制流通配额加速释放" 的观点；其中，挂牌协议成交约 17 万吨，在周度总成交量中所占比例为 9.9%。分年份看，碳配额 23 成 交热度仍然最高，约占周总成交量比例降至 96%（下滑 3 个百分点）。全国温室气体自愿减排交易市场周 度总成交量约 1 万吨，环比下滑 79%。 全国碳市场周度成交均价 76.76 元/吨，周环比下滑 10.28%，主要受大宗协议成交 ...