Market Overview - On July 10, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.5%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.5%, the STAR 50 fell by 0.3%, the CSI 1000 rose by 0.3%, the ChiNext Index increased by 0.2%, and the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.6% [5][7] - The best-performing sectors on July 10 were real estate (+3.2%), oil and petrochemicals (+1.5%), steel (+1.4%), non-bank financials (+1.4%), and coal (+1.1%). The worst-performing sectors were automobiles (-0.6%), media (-0.5%), defense and military industry (-0.4%), electronics (-0.3%), and utilities (-0.3%) [5][7] - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1,494.1 billion yuan, with a net inflow of southbound funds amounting to 2.902 billion HKD [2][7] Important Recommendations - The report recommends the company "Sanqi Interactive Entertainment" (002555) based on the potential for valuation recovery driven by major games like "Douluo Dalu: Hunting Soul World" [3][8] - The expected revenue for the company from 2025 to 2027 is projected to be 19,140 million yuan, 21,949 million yuan, and 25,260 million yuan, with growth rates of 9.74%, 14.68%, and 15.08% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2,758 million yuan, 3,276 million yuan, and 3,788 million yuan, with growth rates of 3.17%, 18.80%, and 15.62% respectively [8] Key Insights - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth rate was 0.1%, better than the previous value of -0.1%, primarily influenced by the rise in industrial consumer goods prices. The Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year growth rate recorded -3.6%, lower than market expectations [9][11] - The carbon market trading price in the first half of 2025 fell nearly 30%, from 97 yuan/ton to below 68 yuan/ton, mainly due to energy price fluctuations and policy easing. However, the price began to recover in June, exceeding 75 yuan/ton, driven by rising crude oil prices and seasonal demand [11][12]

上海环境能源交易所6月30日发布公告称，全国碳排放权交易系统启用单向竞价交易方式。 单向竞价可以采用统一价成交或者申报价成交的成交价格模式。竞价申报结束后，交易系统按照"价格 优先、时间优先"的原则对所有有效申报进行排序。采用统一价成交的，以意向卖出总量内最低申报价 作为统一价成交；采用申报价成交的，以意向卖出总量内各意向买入方申报价逐一成交。 根据上海环境能源交易所公告，意向卖出方单笔单向竞价最小申报数量应当不小于10万吨二氧化碳当 量。意向卖出方可以选择竞价日期前1个交易日指定年度碳排放配额的收盘价或者收盘价的-10%作为底 价。意向买入方最高申报价格不得超过竞价日期前1个交易日指定年度碳排放配额收盘价的+10%。 复旦大学可持续发展研究中心近日发布的碳价指数显示，7月份，全国碳市场价格预计将全面上涨。具 体来看，2025年7月全国碳排放配额的买入价格预期为70.67元/吨，卖出价格预期为76.67元/吨，中间价 为73.67元/吨；买入价格指数为176.66，上涨3.37%；卖出价格指数为172.98，上涨2.52%；中间价格指 数为174.73，上涨2.93%。 6月最后一个交易日，全国碳市场综合价格 ...

Core Insights - The national carbon market in China is developing steadily, with industry expansion, improved methodologies, and mature market operations, but recent declines in carbon emission allowance (CEA) prices have raised concerns [1] - As of June 27, the average transaction price of CEA was 74.96 yuan/ton, a decrease of approximately 30% from the peak in November of the previous year [1] - Multiple factors, including a significant drop in international energy prices and a loosening of policies, have contributed to the recent decline in carbon prices [2] Market Dynamics - Demand for carbon allowances has weakened due to a decline in thermal power generation, which is the main industry in the national carbon market, with total power generation growth of only 0.1% from January to April, significantly lower than the 6.1% growth in the same period last year [2] - The manufacturing PMI fell below 50% after April, leading to a slowdown in industrial electricity growth, while higher temperatures reduced residential electricity demand [2] - The launch of the national voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market (CCER) and the increase in supply expectations have also contributed to the downward pressure on carbon prices [3][4] Future Price Trends - Despite the current decline, experts believe that carbon prices are likely to stabilize and rise in the long term due to the ongoing push for carbon neutrality and the gradual implementation of industry expansion [1][5] - The carbon price is expected to rise as high-emission industries transition and the renewable energy sector grows, with a higher carbon price incentivizing companies to adopt disruptive technologies [5] Global Influences - China's carbon prices may be influenced by other major global carbon markets, such as the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), which will impose fees on certain products based on carbon market price differences starting in 2026 [6] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has suggested that to meet the Paris Agreement goals, the global average carbon price should exceed $85 per ton by 2030, which could also impact China's carbon pricing [6] Market Structure and Regulation - The EU carbon market serves as a reference for improving the financial attributes of carbon markets globally, with a well-established legal framework and a diverse range of trading products [9] - Experts suggest that financial institutions should be gradually introduced into carbon market trading to enhance liquidity and market activity, while ensuring that carbon prices do not rise too quickly [8][10] - There are challenges in the development of carbon finance in China, including the need for clearer legal definitions regarding carbon emission rights and the limitations on financial institutions' direct participation in the carbon market [8]

每经记者｜杨弃非 每经编辑｜杨欢 在今年4月举行的气候和公正转型领导人峰会上，我国再次向全球发起承诺：我国将于11月举行的联合 国气候变化贝伦大会前，宣布覆盖全经济范围、包括所有温室气体的2035年国家自主贡献目标。 面对迫近的"双碳"目标，我国下一步发力重点何在？6月12日，在成都举行的第二届"一带一路"科技交 流大会上，中国工程院院士、天府永兴实验室学术委员会主任、清华大学碳中和研究院院长贺克斌指 出，技术问题仍然是实现"双碳"目标最大的障碍之一。 根据他引用的数据，现有碳中和技术体系下技术成熟度处于实验和示范阶段的技术最多，50%左右的技 术尚未进入应用阶段，其中，低碳燃料、原料替代技术和固碳、存碳、负碳技术成熟度最低，面临未来 技术发展挑战。 碳价仍有提升空间，以市场化方式解决工业减碳难题 在各类技术问题中，工业碳中和技术又格外难突破。 据贺克斌所说，在7大类45项工业碳中和技术清单中，有70%尚处于示范、实验甚至理论阶段。 但要最终走向氢能炼钢，除了目前已经取得的技术突破之外，还需解决成本问题。 事实上，技术驱动减碳的一大阻碍正来自成本。在贺克斌看来，必须要通过市场机制来平衡，那么现在 其中最关键的 ...

本报讯 （记者李春莲） 4月29日，复旦大学可持续发展研究中心（以下简称"研究中心"）公布了2025年5月复旦碳价指数结果。此次公布了2025年 5月全国碳排放配额（简称CEA）价格指数、2025年12月全国CEA价格指数、2025年5月全国CCER价格指数以及2025年5月中国 绿色电力证书GEC价格指数。 研究中心模型计算得出，2025年5月全国碳排放配额（CEA）的买入价格预期为78.37元/吨，卖出价格预期为82.66元/吨， 中间价为80.52元/吨；买入价格指数为195.92，下跌7.70%；卖出价格指数为186.51，下跌7.32%；中间价格指数为190.97，下跌 7.51%。 研究中心还公布了2024年和2025年生产的集中式项目、分布式项目与生物质发电三类国内绿证价格。 市场预期2025年5月交易的2024年生产的集中式项目绿证价格为2.49元/个，价格指数为50.25；分布式项目绿证价格为2.24 元/个，价格指数为42.82；生物质发电绿证价格为2.05元/个，价格指数为45.66。市场预期5月交易的2025年生产的集中式项目 绿证价格为5.20元/个，价格指数为94.55；分布式项目 ...