本报讯(记者李春莲)6月29日，复旦大学可持续发展研究中心(以下简称"研究中心")公布了2025年7月复 旦碳价指数结果。此次公布了2025年7月全国碳排放配额(简称CEA)价格指数、2025年12月全国CEA价 格指数、2025年7月全国CCER价格指数以及2025年7月中国绿色电力证书GEC价格指数。 此外，为进一步丰富复旦碳价指数的服务功能，研究中心在6月份推出了"复旦碳价指数"小程序，涵盖 指数报价、预测趋势可视化、交易意愿填报与公示等多项功能。未来，研究中心将持续优化小程序的服 务范围与功能，扩大使用范围，提供以复旦碳价指数为核心的一揽子碳金融解决方案，提高市场透明度 和效率，为实现"双碳"目标提供强有力的服务和支持工具。 研究中心模型计算得出，2025年7月全国碳排放配额(CEA)的买入价格预期为70.67元/吨，卖出价格预期 为76.67元/吨，中间价为73.67元/吨；买入价格指数为176.66，上涨3.37%；卖出价格指数为172.98，上 涨2.52%；中间价格指数为174.73，上涨2.93%。 在发布环节，研究中心总结了6月份全国碳市场的运行情况：价格方面，6月份碳价持续攀升，除6月1 ...

Core Insights - The national carbon market in China is developing steadily, with industry expansion, improved methodologies, and mature market operations, but recent declines in carbon emission allowance (CEA) prices have raised concerns [1] - As of June 27, the average transaction price of CEA was 74.96 yuan/ton, a decrease of approximately 30% from the peak in November of the previous year [1] - Multiple factors, including a significant drop in international energy prices and a loosening of policies, have contributed to the recent decline in carbon prices [2] Market Dynamics - Demand for carbon allowances has weakened due to a decline in thermal power generation, which is the main industry in the national carbon market, with total power generation growth of only 0.1% from January to April, significantly lower than the 6.1% growth in the same period last year [2] - The manufacturing PMI fell below 50% after April, leading to a slowdown in industrial electricity growth, while higher temperatures reduced residential electricity demand [2] - The launch of the national voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market (CCER) and the increase in supply expectations have also contributed to the downward pressure on carbon prices [3][4] Future Price Trends - Despite the current decline, experts believe that carbon prices are likely to stabilize and rise in the long term due to the ongoing push for carbon neutrality and the gradual implementation of industry expansion [1][5] - The carbon price is expected to rise as high-emission industries transition and the renewable energy sector grows, with a higher carbon price incentivizing companies to adopt disruptive technologies [5] Global Influences - China's carbon prices may be influenced by other major global carbon markets, such as the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), which will impose fees on certain products based on carbon market price differences starting in 2026 [6] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has suggested that to meet the Paris Agreement goals, the global average carbon price should exceed $85 per ton by 2030, which could also impact China's carbon pricing [6] Market Structure and Regulation - The EU carbon market serves as a reference for improving the financial attributes of carbon markets globally, with a well-established legal framework and a diverse range of trading products [9] - Experts suggest that financial institutions should be gradually introduced into carbon market trading to enhance liquidity and market activity, while ensuring that carbon prices do not rise too quickly [8][10] - There are challenges in the development of carbon finance in China, including the need for clearer legal definitions regarding carbon emission rights and the limitations on financial institutions' direct participation in the carbon market [8]

新华财经北京6月12日电 近半年以来，全国碳排放权交易市场（以下简称全国碳市场）价格持续回落。 市场数据显示，截至6月11日，碳排放配额（CEA）收于68.48元／吨，较去年11月创下的历史高点约 105元／吨累计下降约35%。业内人士表示，本轮碳价下行主要由需求趋弱、供给预期增加及市场情绪 转弱等因素叠加所致，但从长期看，随着政策收紧、产业升级及国际联动深化，我国碳价仍有望保持稳 中有升态势。 针对今年碳价持续下行，AEX（香港）控股有限公司创始人兼首席执行官黄杰夫表示市场无需过度担 忧。"碳价的涨跌本身并不关键，碳配额交易的核心价值在于帮助控排企业以较低成本完成履约义务。 碳市场通过总量控制和高效的定价与交易机制，助力实现'双碳'目标。"黄杰夫指出，要实现这一目 标，需提升碳市场的数据透明度和信息清晰度，特别是提高电力行业中控排企业对"碳、电、煤"组合的 远期定价效率。 金融创新碳期货与挂钩产品护航企业稳价避险 需求放缓叠加供给预期增加多重因素拉低价格 "火电是现阶段碳市场最大的需求方，发电量下滑直接削弱了碳配额购买动力。"中国银行研究院高级研 究员赵廷辰表示，今年1-4月，包括火电在内的全国总发电量累计 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the environmental protection industry [1][30]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the investment opportunities arising from the resolution of hidden local government debts, which is expected to improve the balance sheets of environmental companies. Since 2018, risks associated with local government hidden debts have been alleviated, with a target to completely resolve these debts by the end of 2028, involving an increase of 6 trillion yuan in local government debt limits to replace existing hidden debts [4][9][11]. Summary by Sections Weekly Investment Perspective - The report highlights the ongoing efforts to limit new local government debt while addressing existing hidden debts, focusing on the investment opportunities this creates for environmental companies. The goal is to resolve all hidden debts by the end of 2028, with a total of 6 trillion yuan in new debt limits to facilitate this process [4][8][9]. Environmental Sector Performance - The environmental sector experienced a slight increase of 0.46% in the week of June 3 to June 6, 2025. In comparison, the gas and water sectors rose by 1.95% and 0.79%, respectively. The report also lists the top five gainers and losers among environmental stocks during this period [12][13][14]. Carbon Neutrality Tracking - The report provides data on carbon market transactions, noting that the national carbon emissions trading quota (CEA) saw a transaction volume of 2.22 million tons, a 5% increase from the previous week, with an average transaction price of 67.21 yuan per ton. Local trading exchanges saw a significant drop in transaction volume, down 74% [16][21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies within the environmental sector based on their potential for growth due to the ongoing debt resolution policies. Key recommendations include: - Solid Waste: China Everbright International, Sanfeng Environment, Green Power, and Hanlan Environment - Water Services: Beijing Enterprises Water Group and Guangdong Investment - Engineering Services: Delin Hai - Environmental Monitoring Equipment: Xuedilong [11][12].

复旦大学可持续发展研究中心统计的数据显示，5月全国碳排放配额（CEA）日均收盘价为70.30元/ 吨，相较于4月的日均收盘价80.87元/吨下跌约13%，同时，5月碳价呈波动下降态势，从月初的71.35元/ 吨逐步下行至月末盘中的最低价67.91元/吨。截至5月底，全国碳排放配额较去年11月历史最高价106.02 元/吨降幅已达35%，其中仅今年以来的降幅也约30%。（证券时报） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The carbon quota trading prices in the European and American carbon markets decreased last week, while the KAU24 spot price in the South Korean market increased. The trading volumes in the American and South Korean carbon markets rose, and the cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances in the national carbon market in China increased significantly. The weekly trading volume in domestic pilot carbon markets also increased [2]. - Two important events occurred in the field of international green development cooperation: China and CELAC reached a cooperation plan, and RE100 unconditionally recognized Chinese green certificates, which shows China's continuous improvement in green rule - guiding ability and technology export capacity [2]. Summary by Directory 1. International Carbon Trading Market Tracking 1.1 European Carbon Quota Price and Volume - EUA spot price dropped from 72.31 euros/ton on May 12 to 69.94 euros/ton on May 16, a weekly decline of 3.28%. The trading volume was 7.1 tons last week, a 44.96% decrease from the previous week. EUA futures price fell from 73.41 euros/ton to 70.99 euros/ton, a 3.3% decline, and the trading volume was 279.1 tons, a 35.94% decrease [6]. 1.2 American Carbon Quota Price and Volume - EUA futures price decreased from 73.41 euros/ton on May 12 to 70.99 euros/ton on May 16, a 3.3% weekly decline. The total trading volume of EUA futures was 180.02 million tons, a 15.03% increase from the previous week. UKA futures price dropped from 52.71 pounds/ton to 48.36 pounds/ton, an 8.25% decline [10]. 1.3 South Korean Carbon Quota Price and Volume - KAU24 spot price rose from 8810 won/ton on May 12 to 8910 won/ton on May 16, a 1.14% weekly increase. The trading volume was 47.48 tons, a 107.79% increase from the previous week [16]. 2. Domestic Carbon Market Tracking 2.1 National Carbon Market Carbon Quota Volume and Average Transaction Price - The cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances (CEA) in the national carbon market last week was 3.672 million tons, and the cumulative transaction amount was 265.7224 million yuan, with increases of 212.14% and 222.83% respectively from the previous week. As of May 16, the average daily transaction price of CEA last week was 71.16 yuan/ton, a 1.71% increase [19]. 2.2 Weekly Average Transaction Price of Carbon Quotas in Domestic Pilot Provincial and Municipal Carbon Markets - Except for Guangdong Province, the weekly average transaction prices of carbon quotas in domestic pilot carbon markets showed a downward trend last week, with the largest decline of 5.66% in Fujian's FJEA. Compared with the same period last month, except for Beijing, Tianjin, Hubei, and Shenzhen, the prices in other pilot markets declined, with the largest decline of 28.69% in Chongqing's CQEA [23]. 2.3 Carbon Quota Volume and Transaction Amount in Domestic Pilot Provincial and Municipal Carbon Markets - The carbon quota trading in domestic pilot carbon markets last week was mainly concentrated in Chongqing, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Shanghai, accounting for 96.47% of the total weekly trading volume and 94.90% of the total weekly transaction amount. The total weekly trading volume in domestic pilot carbon markets was 181,600 tons, a 71.19% increase from the previous week [25]. 3. Double - Carbon Frontier Technology Tracking 3.1 China - CELAC Cooperation Plan: Exploring Cooperation and Investment Opportunities in Energy Transition and Advanced Energy Storage Technology - On May 13, China and CELAC jointly formulated a cooperation plan (2025 - 2027), emphasizing cooperation and investment opportunities in energy transition and advanced energy storage technology to promote green and low - carbon energy transformation [28]. 3.2 RE100 Announces Unconditional Recognition of Chinese Green Certificates - Recently, RE100 announced unconditional recognition of Chinese green certificates. This is a major achievement of China's green certificate system improvement, which will boost confidence in Chinese green certificate consumption, expand demand, and enhance the green competitiveness of Chinese enterprises [28].

4月23日，生态环境部印发《关于做好2025年全国碳排放权交易市场有关工作的通知》（以下称"《通 知》"），这是全国碳市场扩围后首次印发相关重点工作通知，对发电、钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业的重 点排放单位名录管理、碳排放数据质量管理、碳排放配额分配清缴管理等全环节全流程工作任务及完成 时限作出明确要求，持续增强市场预期，加快推动有关行业绿色低碳转型，助力新质生产力发展。 《通知》要求，全国碳市场重点排放单位名录按年度分行业制定。发电、钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业年度 直接排放量达到2.6万吨二氧化碳当量的单位，应当列入重点排放单位名录。重点排放单位纳入全国碳 市场管理后，不再参与地方碳市场相同行业和相同种类温室气体管理，避免重复管控。各省级生态环境 主管部门按照生态环境部制定的相关规范，组织当地按时完成有关工作。 在活跃度提升同时，全国碳市场价格依然持续走低。根据研究中心统计，4月全国碳市场CEA日均收盘 价为82.26元/吨，相较于3月的日均收盘价87.90元/吨下跌6.42%，且呈波动下降态势。 研究中心预计，5月份全国碳市场价格仍将走低。该中心公布的2025年5月复旦碳价指数显示，2025年5 月CEA买入价格预 ...

本报讯 （记者李春莲） 4月29日，复旦大学可持续发展研究中心（以下简称"研究中心"）公布了2025年5月复旦碳价指数结果。此次公布了2025年 5月全国碳排放配额（简称CEA）价格指数、2025年12月全国CEA价格指数、2025年5月全国CCER价格指数以及2025年5月中国 绿色电力证书GEC价格指数。 研究中心模型计算得出，2025年5月全国碳排放配额（CEA）的买入价格预期为78.37元/吨，卖出价格预期为82.66元/吨， 中间价为80.52元/吨；买入价格指数为195.92，下跌7.70%；卖出价格指数为186.51，下跌7.32%；中间价格指数为190.97，下跌 7.51%。 研究中心还公布了2024年和2025年生产的集中式项目、分布式项目与生物质发电三类国内绿证价格。 市场预期2025年5月交易的2024年生产的集中式项目绿证价格为2.49元/个，价格指数为50.25；分布式项目绿证价格为2.24 元/个，价格指数为42.82；生物质发电绿证价格为2.05元/个，价格指数为45.66。市场预期5月交易的2025年生产的集中式项目 绿证价格为5.20元/个，价格指数为94.55；分布式项目 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 4 月 6 日 全国碳市场：CEA 延续弱势，CCER 市场活跃 度下滑 唐惠珽 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021216 tanghuiting029999@gtjas.com 报告导读： ◼ 本周价格走势：CEA 延续弱势，CCER 市场活跃度下滑 本周，全国碳市场综合价格偏弱运行，收盘价 85.4 元/吨，周环比-0.84%。年同比-2.59%。分年份 看，碳配额 21、22 暂无成交，碳配额 19-20、23 环比上周分别下跌 2.34%、1.08%。全国温室气体自愿 减排交易市场最新单日成交均价 93 元/吨，周环比-1.80%。 全国碳市场周度总成交量约 174 万吨，环比上周增加 40%，符合团队前期"强制流通配额加速释放" 的观点；其中，挂牌协议成交约 17 万吨，在周度总成交量中所占比例为 9.9%。分年份看，碳配额 23 成 交热度仍然最高，约占周总成交量比例降至 96%（下滑 3 个百分点）。全国温室气体自愿减排交易市场周 度总成交量约 1 万吨，环比下滑 79%。 全国碳市场周度成交均价 76.76 元/吨，周环比下滑 10.28%，主要受大宗协议成交 ...