CEA-价格季节性分析 元/吨 2026 - 2025 - 2024 - 2023 110 100 90 80 70 60 03/12 04/17 05/25 06/29 08/03 09/07 10/19 11/23 12/28 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 研究员:何颚昀 从业资格号:F03100810 投资咨询号:Z0021074 CEA-累计成交量季节性分析 碳市场数据报告 2026-02-12 中国 恢 门 切 (CEA数据截止:2026年2月11日;CCER数据截止:2026年2月11日) | 碳交易 | 当日最新价 | 当日价格涨幅 | 2026价格累计涨幅 | 当日成交量 | 2026累计成交量 | 2026累计成交量同 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 元/吨 | % | 96 | 八 相 | / 万吨 | 比增幅 % | | CEA: 挂牌 | 78. 70 | -2. 24% | 5. 45% | 20000 | 162. 89 | 57. 05% | | CEA: 大宗 | 78. 63 | 0. 04 ...

Core Insights - The national carbon market in China reported a closing price of 80.50 yuan per ton on February 10, 2026, reflecting a decrease of 0.07% from the previous day [1][4]. Trading Data - The opening price was 80.56 yuan per ton, with a highest price of 81.00 yuan per ton and a lowest price of 80.00 yuan per ton [4]. - The total trading volume for carbon emission allowances today was 432,640 tons, with a total transaction value of 34,068,840.00 yuan [1]. - The volume for listed agreement trading was 32,640 tons, generating a transaction value of 2,628,840.00 yuan, while bulk agreement trading accounted for 400,000 tons and 31,440,000.00 yuan [1][5]. Cumulative Data - From January 1, 2026, to February 10, 2026, the total trading volume of carbon emission allowances reached 12,633,905 tons, with a cumulative transaction value of 928,560,251.80 yuan [1]. - As of February 10, 2026, the cumulative trading volume in the national carbon market stood at 877,500,425 tons, with a total transaction value of 58,591,178,483.37 yuan [1].

Core Viewpoint - The national carbon market in China, established in July 2021, has made significant progress but faces challenges such as insufficient market liquidity and pronounced tidal phenomena. The weak financial attributes of the market are identified as a key reason for this liquidity issue. The article suggests measures to enhance market liquidity and price discovery, including the introduction of financial institutions and carbon financial derivatives, drawing lessons from the EU carbon market experience [1][4][10]. Group 1: National Carbon Market Development - China has built the largest carbon market globally, covering approximately 4.5 billion tons of CO2 emissions from 2,162 key emission units in the power generation sector [3][4]. - The first administrative regulation in the carbon trading sector, the "Interim Regulations on Carbon Emission Trading," will take effect in May 2024, establishing the legal attributes and trading rules for carbon emissions [4]. - By March 2025, the national carbon market will include steel, cement, and aluminum industries, increasing the number of key emission units to about 3,700 and covering over 8 billion tons of CO2 emissions, accounting for more than 60% of China's total emissions [4]. Group 2: Market Liquidity Issues - The national carbon market's trading volume in 2023 was 2.12 million tons, with a turnover rate of approximately 3%, significantly lower than the EU carbon market's 93 billion tons and 417% turnover rate [4][5]. - The market exhibits tidal phenomena, with trading volumes concentrated in the fourth quarter, particularly near compliance deadlines, leading to low activity during non-compliance periods [4][8]. - The lack of financial attributes and the limited participation of financial institutions contribute to the market's low liquidity and price discovery issues [8][9]. Group 3: Recommendations for Improvement - Establish a collaborative regulatory mechanism between environmental and financial authorities to enhance the financial attributes of the carbon market, which could improve liquidity and price discovery [15]. - Gradually introduce financial institutions into the carbon market, starting with a few qualified entities to provide market-making services, followed by expanding the range of eligible investors as the market matures [16]. - Accelerate the development of standardized carbon financial derivatives, such as carbon futures, to improve market liquidity and reduce price volatility [17].

（原标题：沙特拓展自愿碳市场） 沙通社1月27日报道，由沙特公共投资基金（PIF）和沙特证券交易所（Tadawul Group）合资成立 的区域性自愿碳市场公司（Voluntary Carbon Market Company，VCM）宣布与全球碳理事会（Global Carbon Council，GCC）建立战略合作伙伴关系，旨在通过可信赖的标准和机构级交易基础设施拓展自 愿碳市场。 根据合作协议，经GCC认证的碳信用额现已可在VCM位于沙特的交易平台上进行交易。该合作已 展现出强劲的市场势头，在平台上线首月，经GCC认证的碳信用额交易量就超过60万吨。 ----译注：VCM官网显示，2021年9月3日，PIF和Tadawul Group宣布建立一个自愿性碳信用交易平 台，服务致力于减排的企业和机构。 ...

Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for February 2026, indicating expected buy and sell prices for carbon emission allowances and certified voluntary emission reductions [1][2]. Carbon Emission Allowances (CEA) - The expected buy price for CEA in February 2026 is 72.47 CNY/ton, while the sell price is projected at 83.69 CNY/ton, with a midpoint price of 78.09 CNY/ton [1]. - The buy price index for CEA is 181.18, reflecting a 9.59% increase, and the sell price index is 188.83, showing a 12.88% rise, with the midpoint price index at 185.22, up by 11.35% [1]. Certified Voluntary Emission Reductions (CCER) - The expected buy price for CCER in February 2026 is 71.80 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 83.80 CNY/ton and a midpoint price of 77.80 CNY/ton [1]. - The buy price index for CCER is 180.49, up by 8.13%, while the sell price index is 201.59, increasing by 7.99%, and the midpoint price index is 191.27, reflecting an 8.06% rise [1]. Green Electricity Certificates (GEC) - The expected price for green certificates from centralized projects for 2025 is 7.38 CNY/unit, with a price index of 134.18; for distributed projects, the price is 7.05 CNY/unit and a price index of 143.04; and for biomass power generation, the price is 7.04 CNY/unit with a price index of 136.43 [2]. - All three categories of green certificates have seen price increases compared to January 2026, with biomass power generation certificates experiencing the highest increase of 53% [2]. Market Performance - In January, the average closing price for CEA was 77.54 CNY/ton, a significant increase of approximately 22.55% compared to December 2025 [3]. - The average daily trading volume for carbon allowances in January was 62.97 million tons, a decrease of nearly 70% from December, indicating reduced market activity following compliance deadlines [3]. - Globally, carbon markets experienced a decline in trading volumes, with notable drops in the UK and South Korea, while prices remained relatively stable across most markets [3].

首先，规范能源企业纳入碳市场管控的分类标准。唐人虎建议，对北京碳交易试点中发电企业的纳入标 准进行全面梳理，严格按照最新《国民经济行业分类标准》要求细化分类管控规则，区分常规火电、新 能源发电、调节性电源等不同类型企业的碳排放属性，避免因分类不清导致的政策误配，确保碳市场纳 入范围更加科学合理，为鼓励新能源发展、构建新型电力系统给出明确市场引导信号。 同时，他表示，对已纳入的抽水蓄能等调节性电源的能源消费和碳減排属性开展专项核查，充分认可其 绿色调节能源的定位和系统性减排价值，并依据《北京市碳排放权交易管理办法》第二章第九条规定将 其从北京市试点碳市场重点排放单位名单中移出。 其次，明确抽蓄、储能等调节性电源的碳市场定位。他建议，结合北京市碳排放双控目标和国家新型能 源体系建设要求，修订完善北京市碳交易试点相关配套政策，明确抽水蓄能、新型储能等调节性能源主 体的碳市场定位，将其排除在重点排放单位管控范围之外。同时，探索建立抽水蓄能电站的自愿减排市 场机制，参照国际国内碳市场经验和北京市碳普惠市场有关规定，研究制定抽蓄/储能碳普惠减排方法 学，让其系统性减排效益通过自愿减排市场得到合理体现。 2026年是"十五 ...

转自：中国经营报 1月23日，江海证券"碳中和网点"授牌仪式在哈尔滨举行。为深入贯彻习近平生态文明思想，在黑龙江省林业和草原局指导下，黑龙江省林业技术服务中 心、黑龙江自然和生态资源交易中心有限公司、黑龙江森工碳资产投资开发有限公司协同发力，以打造黑龙江省首家"碳中和网点"为引领，创新拓展黑龙 江省林业碳汇品牌"龙江绿碳"消纳场景，为黑龙江省绿色低碳发展贡献力量。 本次活动进行了龙江绿碳转让签约，省林业技术服务中心和自然生态交易中心分别为江海证券颁发了龙江绿碳注销凭证、授牌了"碳中和网点"，通过注销 足量的"龙江绿碳"实现了江海证券办公网点2025年度运营的碳中和。 授牌现场 合影留念 自2024年黑龙江省"龙江绿碳"交易市场启动以来，自然生态交易中心创新构建了包括"碳汇+中和""碳汇+司法""碳汇+金融""碳汇+仓储"四大模式的碳交易 服务体系，成功助力哈尔滨亚冬会、上海进博会实现碳中和，为黑龙江省绿色低碳发展提供全方位全链条服务支撑。下一步，自然生态交易中心将持续优 化服务模式，创新绿色金融产品，提供各类碳中和服务，促进各类主体绿色低碳发展，为"绿色龙江"建设注入新动能。 签约现场 为实现黑龙江省首个"碳 ...

本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格。本内容的观点和信息仅供国泰君安期货的专业投资者参考。本内容难以设置访问权限, 若给您造成不便，数请谅解。若您并非国泰君安期货客户中的专业投资者，请勿闻读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本内容不拘成具体业务的维 个，亦不应被视为任何投资、法律、会计或税务建议，且本公司不会因接收人收到本内容而观其为客户。本内容的信息来源于公开资外，本公 司对这些信息的准确性、完整性及未来变更的可能性不作任何保证。请您根据自身的风险承受能力作出我资决定并自主承担投资风险。不应凭 借本内容进行具体操作、本公司不对因使用本内容而造成的损失事担任何责任。除非另有说明。本公司拥有本内容的版权和/或某他相关知识产 权。未经本公司事先书面午可，任何单位或个人不得以任何方式复制、转载、引用、刊登、发表、发行、修改、翻译比报告的全部或部分内容。 国泰君安期货 风险 1、欧盟经济衰退;2、欧盟增加拍卖以筹措资金;3、排放上限弱化 图表1:欧盟排放配额(EUA)最新拍卖行情信息 CBAM证书价格 EUA拍卖量 拍卖收入 EUA拍卖价格 投标覆盖比 (万欧元) (欧元/吨) (欧元/吨) (万吨) 2026-0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - CEA's listed average price decreased slightly, and the CCER premium rate narrowed. The CEA had 7.6 tons listed and 86.0 tons in bulk transactions, with a listed transaction average price of 77.27 yuan/ton (-1.69%). The CCER had a listed agreement trading volume of 0.00 tons and a transaction average price of 80.00 yuan/ton (-5.04%) [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - CEA: 7.6 tons were listed, and 86.0 tons were in bulk transactions. The listed transaction average price was 77.27 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.69%. CCER: The listed agreement trading volume was 0.00 tons, and the transaction average price was 80.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.04% [2] Reasons for Market Fluctuations - Recent market transactions are mostly cross - industry carry - over repurchases. Transaction prices are restricted by repurchase contracts, leading to increased intraday fluctuations in CEA and prices that may deviate from market valuations. Currently, sellers have a low willingness to sell, buyers' purchasing intentions are sporadically shown, the bid - ask spread is high, and market transactions are relatively light [3][4] Market Data Details - CEA: The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, CEA24, and CEA25 are 74.00, 74.52, 76.39 ,70.00, 79.00, and 77.27 yuan/ton respectively. The price of CEA25 decreased by 1.69%. The total trading volumes are 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 22.00, and 71.58 tons respectively. The listed agreement trading volume of CEA last is 7.58 tons [7]. - CCER: The transaction average price is 80.00 yuan/ton, the trading volume is is 0.00 tons , the premium rate is 3.53%, and the price decreased by 5.04% [8]

Core Insights - The article discusses the concept of carbon inclusivity, which transforms everyday low-carbon actions into tangible economic incentives, thereby integrating green practices into daily life [1][2]. Group 1: Carbon Inclusivity Mechanism - Carbon inclusivity is a mechanism that allows individuals to accumulate invisible green assets through daily activities, such as commuting and energy conservation, which can be converted into rewards like discounts and loan rate reductions [1]. - The carbon inclusivity platform "Wutan Jianghu" in Wuhan has over 2 million users, allowing citizens to convert their carbon reduction actions into real discounts and rewards [2][3]. - The platform has recorded over 34 million low-carbon actions, resulting in a total carbon reduction of over 50,000 tons [2]. Group 2: Expansion and Standardization - The carbon inclusivity model has been replicated in 12 cities, with plans to expand its reach and standardize practices across regions [4]. - Experts emphasize the need for a unified standard system to facilitate cross-regional recognition of carbon inclusivity efforts and enhance financial support [1][3]. Group 3: Diverse Applications - Carbon inclusivity is being applied in various sectors, including large sporting events, ecological damage compensation, and green finance, enhancing public engagement and social impact [5][7]. - The 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics engaged 2.7 million participants, generating 19,000 tons of carbon reductions through carbon inclusivity practices [5]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Directions - Current challenges include inconsistent regional standards, insufficient inter-departmental collaboration, and limited market channels for carbon reduction trading [9]. - Future efforts should focus on establishing a national standard system, enhancing data sharing among departments, and expanding market channels for carbon inclusivity [9][10].