2025 年 10 月 9 日， 深圳大学 李清泉 院士、 杨超 助理教授等 ， 在国际顶尖学术期刊 Science 上发表了题为： Tropical forest carbon offsets deliver partial gains amid persistent over-crediting 的研究论文。 该研究分析了来自南美洲、非洲和东南亚 12 个国家的 52 个 REDD+ 避免意外毁林项目， 发现这些项目的气候效益高于以往研究，但总体成效仍然较低 ，仅有 19% 的项目达到了它们自 己报告的减排目标， 且 项目成功情况和高估程度在各国之间差异很大。 撰文丨王聪 编辑丨王多鱼 排版丨水成文 森林退化 是 温室气体排放 的一个主要来源， 因此，通过保护森林的碳补偿项目，例如 REDD+ （ 减少毁林和森林退化所致排放量增强版 ） ， 来抵消其他地区 的温室气体排放，并在 自愿碳市场 中进行交易。然而，这些项目的有效性近期 受到了质疑 ， 导致碳补偿价值下降。 REDD+ （ Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation Plus ） ， ...

在发布环节，研究中心总结了9月全国碳市场的运行情况：第一，价格方面，本月CEA的日均收盘价为 62.94元/吨，相较于8月的日均收盘价71.12元/吨大幅下降11.5%。本月碳价呈震荡下行走势，从月初的 69.41元/吨逐步走低至月末的59.16元/吨，跌下60元价格平台。第二，成交量方面，本月碳配额日均成 交量为136.78万吨，相较8月的71.95万吨增加约90%。本月市场交易的活跃度和稳定均明显提升，四分 之三的交易日成交量破百万吨，单日成交最高峰为9月26日的318.29万吨，反映出履约期将近的碳市场 交投热度大幅跃升。 据研究中心介绍，9月份，全球主要碳市场成交量整体回升，韩国碳市场出现下跌。同时，全球主要碳 市场月内走势分化，成交价环比涨跌不一。 研究中心模型计算得出，2025年10月全国碳排放配额(CEA)的买入价格预期为55.39元/吨，卖出价格预 期为60.63元/吨，中间价为58.00元/吨；买入价格指数为138.48，下跌19.09%；卖出价格指数为136.80， 下跌16.23%；中间价格指数为137.57，下跌17.64%。2025年12月全国碳排放配额(CEA)的买入价格预期 为6 ...

《全国碳市场发展报告（2025）》透露，下一步，中国将坚持碳市场作为控制温室气体排放政策工具的 基本定位，持续完善全国碳市场相关政策配套制度，分阶段、有步骤扩大碳排放权交易市场覆盖行业范 围和温室气体自愿减排交易市场支持领域，不断丰富全国碳市场交易品种、交易主体、交易方式，营造 更加公平公开透明的市场环境，努力实现碳排放资源配置效率最优化和效益最大化。同时，中国还将进 一步深化多领域多渠道气候务实合作，加强与相关国家、地区和国际组织在碳市场领域技术、方法、标 准等方面的互认，推动基于自愿减排交易的双边和多边合作，加快建成更加有效、更有活力、更具国际 影响力的碳市场。 （文章来源：证券时报网） "本月碳市场的交易活跃度明显提升，四分之三交易日成交量破百万吨，反映出履约期将近的碳市场交 投热度大幅跃升。"复旦大学可持续发展研究中心表示。 业内普遍预计，碳价仍将继续下行。复旦大学可持续发展研究中心发布的最新碳价指数显示，2025年10 月，CEA买入价格预期为55.39元/吨，卖出价格预期为60.63元/吨，中间价为58.00元/吨；买入价格指数 为138.48，下跌19.09%；卖出价格指数为136.80，下跌1 ...

环球智投风险预警模型指出： 环球智投2025年特别报告解析后石油时代增长逻辑 一、数据透视：收入结构的历史性转变 环球智投最新监测数据显示，迪拜2025年H1人均收入达12.8万美元(约合47万迪拉姆)，其中数字资产交 易员、AI训练师等新兴职业收入占比达41%，较2020年增长300%。值得注意的是，传统能源行业从业 者收入占比已降至历史最低点5.2%，标志着迪拜经济转型进入质变阶段。 二、新经济三大支柱 1、元宇宙经济特区建设迪拜元宇宙战略已吸引全球73%的Web3企业设立区域总部，虚拟地产交易额突 破80亿美元。环球智投发现，元宇宙相关岗位平均薪资达传统行业3.2倍，其中数字策展人年薪中位数 突破35万美元。 2、生物科技走廊崛起依托迪拜生物科技自由区，基因治疗、长寿医学等前沿领域研发投入年增45%。 环球智投调研显示，生物医药研究员收入增速连续18个月领跑全行业。 3、绿色金融枢纽成型碳交易市场规模扩大至1200亿迪拉姆，ESG分析师成为最紧缺人才。环球智投统 计显示，该领域从业者年收入涨幅达28%，远超金融业平均水平。 三、隐忧与破局之道 ● 技术性失业风险：AI替代率预计2030年达22% ● 资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of the "Opinions on Promoting Green and Low-Carbon Transition and Strengthening National Carbon Market Construction" marks a significant step towards the comprehensive deepening and acceleration of the national carbon market, providing direction for institutional innovation and operational optimization, which is crucial for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals [1] Group 1: Carbon Market Structure - The national carbon trading market consists of a mandatory carbon trading market and a voluntary emission reduction market, which are interconnected through quota clearing and offset mechanisms, each with its own focus and independent operation [2] - The carbon pricing mechanism is central to the carbon trading market policy, with quota allocation being a key factor influencing carbon pricing [2] Group 2: Quota Allocation and Control - Currently, carbon quotas are primarily allocated for free, based on carbon emission intensity and actual production, to avoid limiting production and impacting economic growth [2] - As more carbon emitters are included in the market, the focus will gradually shift from controlling carbon intensity to controlling total carbon emissions, transitioning from free allocation to a combination of free and paid allocation methods [2] Group 3: Monitoring and Verification - A robust monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) system is essential for accurately determining historical carbon emissions and their changes over time, which supports the effective implementation of the carbon market [3] - Improving the quality of carbon emission data through comprehensive regulation and automated monitoring is a key direction for enhancing carbon accounting and reporting management [3] Group 4: Green Technology and Economic Transition - Companies can promote green technology research and application through low-carbon production methods, creating a virtuous cycle of emission reduction, revenue generation, and reinvestment in research [4] - The transition to low-carbon industries can be facilitated by eliminating outdated production capacity and fostering the development of clean energy, low-carbon equipment manufacturing, and carbon consulting [4] - The establishment of a comprehensive voluntary certification methodology for emission reduction projects will provide stronger momentum for achieving green and low-carbon goals in the future [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report released by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment highlights the progress and future direction of China's carbon market, emphasizing its importance in achieving national climate goals and enhancing the carbon pricing mechanism [1][3]. Group 1: Market Development - The national carbon emissions trading market has shown increased vitality, with a 43.55% rise in average daily trading volume compared to the previous compliance cycle, totaling 1.89 million tons for the year [2]. - The annual trading value of carbon emission allowances reached 18.114 billion yuan, marking a new high since the market's launch in 2021 [2]. - As of August 2025, the cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances reached 69.6 million tons, with a total transaction value of 47.826 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Compliance and Performance - The compliance rate for the 2023 carbon allowance was 99.98%, achieving a historical high, with 28 provincial regions completing their compliance work at 100% [2]. - This represents a significant improvement compared to the previous compliance cycles [2]. Group 3: Future Directions - The Chinese government aims to enhance the carbon market as a key policy tool for controlling greenhouse gas emissions, with plans to gradually expand the market's coverage and improve related policies [3]. - There is a focus on diversifying trading products, participants, and methods to create a more equitable and transparent market environment [3].

"《意见》印发，推动建设更加有效、更有活力、更具国际影响力的全国碳市场。其中，《意见》 提出，统筹好全国碳排放权交易市场和有关地方试点开展的碳市场。不再新建地方或区域碳排放权交易 市场。"张希良补充道，"当然，全国碳市场建设仍然面临如何进一步提高效率和活力的问题，现有的试 点省市碳市场可以继续发挥先行先试的作用，特别是在丰富市场参与主体和发展基于碳市场的金融产品 方面作出相关探索。" 人民日报记者 张晔 何宇澈 核心阅读 我国建成全球规模最大的碳排放权交易市场并稳定运行；截至8月底，全国碳排放权交易市场累计 成交量近7亿吨……全国碳市场建设迈入新阶段。 如何推动建设更加有效、更有活力、更具国际影响力的全国碳市场？记者采访专家对此进行了解 读。 9月24日，"2025年中国碳市场大会"在上海举行。会议介绍，截至8月底，全国碳排放权交易市场累 计成交量近7亿吨。 近期，国务院新闻办公室"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会介绍，我国建成全球规模 最大的碳排放权交易市场并稳定运行，覆盖全国60%以上的碳排放量。我国碳市场领域第一份中央文件 ——《中共中央办公厅国务院办公厅关于推进绿色低碳转型加强全国碳市场建 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 164, 2025) [1] - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures [2] - Release date: September 25, 2025 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Views - CEA price rebounds, with daily trading volume increasing by 16.5% compared to the previous day [5] - From September, key emission - control units will formulate trading plans based on the allocation of verified allowances, accelerating the release of mandatory circulation allowances, and carbon prices may face downward pressure. By the end of October, as compliance pressure gradually emerges and the release of mandatory circulation allowances nears completion, upward momentum is expected to accumulate, and carbon prices may enter a stage of trend - based recovery [8] - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances may be a real support for carbon price reversal. It is expected that the mandatory circulation allowances will be exhausted by October, but anticipatory trading may occur, and signs of carbon price reversal may be seen as early as September [7] - It is recommended that enterprises with allowance gaps make phased purchases at low prices before the end of October [6] Group 4: Market Conditions Summary CEA Market - CEA24 shows weak and stable operation, while other targets show slight rebounds. The volume of listed allowances is 813,000 tons, and the volume of bulk transactions is 845,000 tons [6] - CEA19 - 20 closes at 65.00 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change; CEA21 closes at 59.00 yuan/ton with a 5.36% increase; CEA22 closes at 60.00 yuan/ton with a 3.43% increase; CEA23 closes at 57.13 yuan/ton with a 2.62% increase; CEA24 closes at 57.65 yuan/ton with a - 0.36% change [10] - The total trading volume of CEA19 - 20 is 0.00 tons; CEA21 is 0.00 tons; CEA22 is 18,500 tons; CEA23 is 646,100 tons; CEA24 is 993,100 tons [10] - The total trading amount of CEA19 - 20 is 58,991,100 yuan; CEA21 is 1,108,400 yuan; CEA22 is 41,935,500 yuan; CEA23 is 0.00 yuan; CEA24 is 60,000 yuan [11] CCER Market - The volume of listed agreement transactions of CCER is 139,800 tons, and the average transaction price is 78.30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.14%. The trading amount is 10,948,500 yuan, and the cumulative trading volume is 3,160,500 tons [12]

Core Insights - The national carbon market in China has become the largest carbon trading market globally, covering a significant portion of greenhouse gas emissions [1][4] - The cumulative transaction volume of the carbon market has exceeded 49 billion yuan, with nearly 720 million tons of carbon allowances traded [2] - The market has expanded its coverage to include industries such as steel, cement, and aluminum, effectively managing over 60% of the country's carbon dioxide emissions [2] Group 1: Market Performance - The carbon market's trading scale reached a historical high since 2024, indicating increased market vitality [2] - The "waste-to-energy" system implemented in the cement industry can consume over 150,000 tons of solid waste annually, reducing carbon emissions by approximately 300,000 tons [2] Group 2: Policy and Strategic Development - A central document was issued in August to accelerate the construction of a unified national carbon market, outlining key tasks and action plans [3] - The national carbon market conference serves as a platform to share China's experiences with emerging economies, promoting the adoption of carbon market mechanisms for green development [3] Group 3: International Recognition - The achievements of China's carbon market have been recognized by international guests, highlighting its role in optimizing resource allocation and guiding industry emissions reductions [4] - The European Union has expressed admiration for China's leadership in green transformation and renewable energy deployment [5] - International organizations acknowledge China's positive experiences in green development, which inspire confidence in global emission reduction efforts [6]

Group 1: Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) Goals - China announced new NDC goals aiming for a 7%-10% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 compared to peak levels, with a target for non-fossil energy consumption to exceed 30% of total energy consumption [1] - The total installed capacity for wind and solar power is expected to reach over 360 million kilowatts, which is more than six times the capacity in 2020 [1] - The NDC goals are seen as a strong commitment to reducing global greenhouse gas emissions and will enhance the efficiency of the national carbon market [1] Group 2: Carbon Market Development - The national carbon market has been operational for over four years, covering more than 2,200 key emission units in the power sector, making it the largest carbon market globally in terms of greenhouse gas emissions coverage [2] - As of August 2024, the cumulative trading volume in the carbon market reached nearly 700 million tons, with a transaction value of approximately 48 billion yuan [2] - The carbon market is expected to expand to include the steel, cement, and aluminum industries by 2025, adding over 1,300 new key emission units and increasing the controlled carbon emissions by about 3 billion tons [7] Group 3: Future Plans and Recommendations - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment plans to steadily expand the carbon market's coverage and enhance trading varieties and methods [3] - A central document was released outlining a roadmap for the carbon market's development, aiming for comprehensive coverage of major industrial sectors by 2027 [4] - Experts suggest establishing a total control system for carbon emissions and setting net-zero growth targets for the 14th Five-Year Plan period [5][6] Group 4: International Cooperation and Standards - China is actively working to enhance its international influence in carbon markets and is exploring cross-border carbon trading mechanisms [10] - The upcoming COP30 in Brazil is seen as a critical point for advancing the implementation of the Paris Agreement, with expectations for increased international cooperation [9] - China's carbon market has been recognized as a model for emerging economies, with its innovative carbon intensity control being referenced by countries like Turkey, Brazil, and Indonesia [11]