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需求结构寻景气,模式转型升级可期待
Soochow Securities· 2025-02-20 01:08
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the home improvement and building materials industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The demand structure is expected to stabilize, with potential for transformation and upgrades in the industry by 2025 [1] - Despite pressure on new housing demand, the existing housing market is expected to support demand for home improvement materials, aided by policies promoting renovation and upgrades [3][6] - The concentration of leading companies in the industry is anticipated to increase, as smaller firms exit the market, enhancing the stability of leading companies' profitability and cash flow [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Demand - The new housing market is under pressure, but policies are expected to stabilize the market, with a projected 14.3% year-on-year decline in new housing sales area in 2024 [6] - The existing housing market is showing signs of recovery, with a 1.1% year-on-year increase in second-hand housing transactions in the first ten months of 2024 [19] - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to boost demand for home improvement materials, with subsidies likely to continue into 2025 [32][39] 2. Industry Structure - The industry is undergoing repair and adjustment, with an expected increase in market concentration as smaller companies exit [3][4] - The performance of leading companies remains stable, with a focus on maintaining market share and improving cash flow [40][41] 3. Development - Companies are accelerating diversification and integration to seek growth, with a focus on breaking regional and category boundaries [3][4] - The trend towards integrated services is becoming more prominent, with leading companies exploring one-stop sales and service models [3][4] 4. Investment Recommendations - Continuous support from real estate policies and the stabilization of sales indicators are expected to improve market sentiment towards home improvement demand [3][4] - Key companies to watch include Beixin Materials, Tubao, Weixing New Materials, and others that are actively adjusting their business models and expanding their product categories [3][4]