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共价可逆BTK抑制剂EVER001
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云顶新耀(01952):mRNA平台开发稳步推进,可逆BTK膜性肾病数据优异;上调目标价
BOCOM International· 2025-07-02 08:06
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of HKD 72.50, indicating a potential upside of 16.6% from the current closing price of HKD 62.20 [1][27]. Core Insights - The mRNA platform development is progressing steadily, with excellent data on the reversible BTK inhibitor for membranous nephropathy. The target price has been raised to reflect these developments [2][6]. - The company has showcased its fully integrated and localized AI + mRNA platform, highlighting several mRNA tumor drug developments, including personalized and universal therapeutic vaccines [6]. - The reversible BTK inhibitor EVER001 has shown promising results in clinical trials for treating membranous nephropathy, with significant reductions in anti-PLA2R antibody levels and urinary protein levels [6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 126 million - 2024: RMB 707 million - 2025E: RMB 1,660 million - 2026E: RMB 2,552 million - 2027E: RMB 3,752 million - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 884.5% for 2023, 461.2% for 2024, and 134.9% for 2025 [5][28]. - The net profit (loss) is expected to improve from a loss of RMB 844 million in 2023 to a profit of RMB 743 million by 2027 [5][28]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 20.2 billion, with an average daily trading volume of 13.36 million shares [3]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a peak sales estimate for EVER001 exceeding RMB 1.5 billion, with a target valuation of HKD 72.50 corresponding to a market cap of HKD 237 billion and a price-to-sales ratio of 1.8 times at peak revenue [6][24]. - The company’s financial forecasts have been adjusted, reflecting a more cautious outlook on product revenue ramp-up, with slight downward revisions in revenue estimates for 2025-2027 [6][23].