内贸航空及衍生产品

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航发科技(600391):内贸订单波动影响短期业绩,看好军用、商发、外贸发展
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-09-02 14:11
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next six months [5][16]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 1.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.5%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 10 million yuan, down 33.2% year-on-year. The decline in performance is primarily attributed to fluctuations in domestic trade product orders, but the company is expected to benefit from growth in military, commercial aviation, and foreign trade sectors [1][2]. - The company has significantly improved its operating cash flow, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 250 million yuan in the second quarter of 2025, compared to a negative 1.54 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - The report highlights the company's focus on military and commercial aviation markets, with significant progress in the development of engine components and participation in large aircraft engine projects. The foreign trade segment is also expected to grow due to increasing demand in the global aviation market [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, domestic aviation and derivative products generated revenue of 1.05 billion yuan, down 23.5% year-on-year, while foreign trade revenue was 80 million USD, up 8.3% year-on-year. The gross margin for domestic products increased by 6.08 percentage points to 18.5% [2]. - The company forecasts revenues of 4.48 billion yuan, 5.45 billion yuan, and 6.85 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-sales ratios of 2.23, 1.84, and 1.46 [3][4]. - The report projects a net profit attributable to the parent company of 109.07 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 58.54% [4][10]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from the recovery of domestic equipment demand and the expanding market for commercial aircraft, which is expected to drive rapid growth [3]. - The report emphasizes the company's unique asset attributes in the aviation engine sector, which are scarce in the market, further supporting the positive investment outlook [3].