300395.SZ 国防军工 | 证券研究报告 — 最新信息 2025 年 9 月 29 日 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 76.78 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 112.2 (22.9) 54.5 146.1 相对深圳成指 78.9 (30.9) 25.1 88.6 发行股数 (百万) 522.27 流通股 (百万) 513.04 总市值 (人民币 百万) 40,099.71 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) 1,970.54 主要股东 邓家贵 7.53% 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 0% 48% 95% 143% 191% 238% Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 菲利华 深圳成指 以 2025 年 9 月 25 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《菲利华》20250828 《菲利华》20250727 《菲利华》20250718 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 国防军工 ...

Group 1 - Dagan Holdings' shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 3% of the company's shares, totaling approximately 9.52 million shares [1] - China Resources Sanjiu intends to invest up to 10 billion yuan of its own funds in bank wealth management products, with a rolling investment strategy [1] - Xinyu Guoke's shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 1% of the company's shares, totaling approximately 276.76 thousand shares [3] Group 2 - Tianpu Co. has completed the stock trading suspension review and will resume trading after a period of abnormal price fluctuations [5] - Xinhang New Materials' controlling shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 2% of the company's shares, totaling approximately 174.88 thousand shares [6] - Yinbang Co.'s shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 3% of the company's shares, totaling approximately 24.66 million shares [7] Group 3 - Yuanfei Pet's shareholders plan to collectively reduce holdings by up to 3.48% of the company's shares, totaling approximately 565.14 thousand shares [7] - Changchun High-tech's subsidiary will gain exclusive agency rights for three products in mainland China [9] - Hanyi Co.'s controlling shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 3% of the company's shares, totaling approximately 294 thousand shares [10] Group 4 - Zhongcai Energy's subsidiary signed a total contract worth 347 million yuan for a project in Hubei Province [11] - Ruifeng Bank's shareholder reduced holdings by 408.83 thousand shares, decreasing their ownership from 6.10% to 5.89% [12] - Shanghai Construction's gold business revenue is low, accounting for less than 0.5% of total revenue [13] Group 5 - Guanggang Gas's shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 2.63 million shares, approximately 1.9994% of the company's total shares [14] - Kairun Co.'s controlling shareholder has decided to terminate the share reduction plan early [15] - Boyun New Materials' shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 1% of the company's shares, totaling approximately 573 thousand shares [16] Group 6 - Yuanda Environmental's acquisition of assets and fundraising has been approved by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [17] - ST Ningke's stock will be subject to delisting risk warning due to the company's restructuring [18] - Anke Biotech's investee company has received approval for a key II phase clinical trial for a new injection [19] Group 7 - Shuanglu Pharmaceutical's director plans to reduce holdings by up to 37.52 thousand shares, approximately 0.0365% of the company's total shares [20] - Zhongji Xuchuang's specific shareholder's holding ratio changed by more than 1% [21] - ST Nanzhi plans to sell real estate development and leasing business assets for 1 yuan to focus on urban operation [22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [7]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 5.751 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.51%, primarily due to product delivery schedules and adjustments in product structure. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 492 million yuan, down 32.59% year-on-year, mainly due to reduced interest income and decreased foreign exchange gains [1][2]. - In Q2 2025, the company saw a significant improvement with revenue of 3.444 billion yuan, up 11.20% year-on-year and 49.34% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit for the same quarter was 294 million yuan, down 27.50% year-on-year but up 48.74% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 29.27%, a decrease of 1.38 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 10.42%, down 3.50 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Financial Performance - The company reported a period expense ratio of 13.20% for the first half of 2025, an increase of 0.91 percentage points year-on-year. The sales expense ratio increased to 0.86%, management expense ratio to 6.94%, while R&D expense ratio decreased to 4.87% [2]. - As of the end of the first half of 2025, accounts receivable and notes stood at 12.266 billion yuan, an increase of 13.77% from the beginning of the year, and inventory was 5.454 billion yuan, up 9.58% [2]. Order Growth and Market Expansion - The company signed new orders in the first half of 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 9.39%, with a reserve order growth of 9.26%. The product bidding success rate improved by 10.11% compared to the same period last year [3]. - The company made breakthroughs in the shipbuilding sector, signing market orders worth 78.28 million yuan and developing overseas clients, which may contribute to future revenue growth [3]. Future Outlook - The company expects a significant increase in related procurement amounts for 2025, with sales of products and services projected at 5.5 billion yuan, a 31% increase from 4.2 billion yuan in 2024. The procurement of goods and services is expected to exceed 2.7 billion yuan, more than doubling from 1.2 billion yuan in 2024 [4]. - The report anticipates that the company's core capabilities will continue to strengthen, supporting its expansion into various fields, including commercial engines and marine equipment [4]. Financial Projections - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is 1.013 billion yuan, with estimates of 1.135 billion yuan for 2026 and 1.323 billion yuan for 2027. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are 25.27, 22.55, and 19.36, respectively [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next six months [5][16]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 1.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.5%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 10 million yuan, down 33.2% year-on-year. The decline in performance is primarily attributed to fluctuations in domestic trade product orders, but the company is expected to benefit from growth in military, commercial aviation, and foreign trade sectors [1][2]. - The company has significantly improved its operating cash flow, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 250 million yuan in the second quarter of 2025, compared to a negative 1.54 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - The report highlights the company's focus on military and commercial aviation markets, with significant progress in the development of engine components and participation in large aircraft engine projects. The foreign trade segment is also expected to grow due to increasing demand in the global aviation market [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, domestic aviation and derivative products generated revenue of 1.05 billion yuan, down 23.5% year-on-year, while foreign trade revenue was 80 million USD, up 8.3% year-on-year. The gross margin for domestic products increased by 6.08 percentage points to 18.5% [2]. - The company forecasts revenues of 4.48 billion yuan, 5.45 billion yuan, and 6.85 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-sales ratios of 2.23, 1.84, and 1.46 [3][4]. - The report projects a net profit attributable to the parent company of 109.07 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 58.54% [4][10]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from the recovery of domestic equipment demand and the expanding market for commercial aircraft, which is expected to drive rapid growth [3]. - The report emphasizes the company's unique asset attributes in the aviation engine sector, which are scarce in the market, further supporting the positive investment outlook [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [4]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 19.42 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 690 million yuan, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year [1]. - The growth in performance is attributed to the expansion of orders for new aircraft components, cost reduction, and high-quality development initiatives [1][2]. - The company is focusing on the development of the civil aircraft industry and aims to extend its business into future aircraft and high-end manufacturing applications [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 10.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5%, with a net profit of 400 million yuan, an increase of 4.0% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 7.3%, an increase of 1.38 percentage points year-on-year, indicating significant improvements in quality and efficiency [1]. - The company’s R&D expenses increased by 17.2% year-on-year, reflecting a commitment to enhancing research and development [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 1.135 billion yuan, 1.350 billion yuan, and 1.601 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 69.63, 58.53, and 49.36 [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][18]. Core Views - The company has shown a significant increase in contract liabilities, which rose by 113% compared to the beginning of the year, suggesting improving downstream demand [1][2]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the rapid development of national defense equipment and the proactive expansion of overseas military trade markets [1][4]. - The company has completed a fundraising of 4 billion yuan through a private placement to support the development of aviation weaponry and modern industrial systems [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 14.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.4%, and a net profit of 1.14 billion yuan, down 29.8% [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 8.79 billion yuan, a decline of 27.5% year-on-year, while the net profit was 710 million yuan, down 21.8% [1]. - The company's gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 12.3%, a decrease of 0.27 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased by 0.27 percentage points to 7.7% [1]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 48.17 billion yuan, 56.25 billion yuan, and 66.26 billion yuan respectively [4]. - The forecasted net profit for the same period is adjusted to 3.71 billion yuan, 4.56 billion yuan, and 5.48 billion yuan respectively [4]. - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is projected to be 47.11, 38.31, and 31.82 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]. Key Financial Metrics - The company reported a significant improvement in operating cash flow, with 3.09 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, compared to a negative 5.89 billion yuan in the same period last year [2]. - As of the end of Q2 2025, the company had total liabilities of 39.21 billion yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 69.43% [7][13]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.31 yuan in 2025, increasing to 1.93 yuan by 2027 [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][5] - The previous rating was also "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the company's fundamentals are in line with expectations, and the incremental demand for quartz fiber materials is promising [3] - The company is one of the few manufacturers globally capable of mass-producing quartz fiber, which is expected to break the overseas monopoly in the low dielectric electronic cloth market and provide technical support for domestic copper-clad board manufacturers [3][8] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the anticipated growth in demand for quartz electronic cloth driven by AI infrastructure hardware upgrades [5] Summary by Sections Stock Performance - The company's stock has shown significant absolute performance with a 155.2% increase year-to-date and a 219.8% increase over the past 12 months [2] - The market price is currently at RMB 92.32, with a total market capitalization of approximately RMB 48.22 billion [1][2] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company show a growth from RMB 2,091 million in 2023 to RMB 5,202 million by 2027, with a notable growth rate of 75.4% in 2026 [7] - The estimated EPS is projected to increase from RMB 1.03 in 2023 to RMB 2.54 in 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [7][10] Business Segments - The company reported a revenue of RMB 9.08 billion in the first half of 2025, with a gross margin of 49.2% [8] - The semiconductor segment is showing steady growth, while the aerospace segment is recovering, and the photovoltaic segment has seen a significant decline [8] - The quartz electronic cloth product is currently in the testing phase with clients, indicating potential for future revenue growth [8] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the global switch market is transitioning from 200G/400G to 800G/1.6T, with significant demand expected for quartz electronic cloth [8] - The company is positioned to benefit from the competitive landscape shift in the low dielectric electronic cloth market, as it possesses the full production chain from quartz sand to quartz fiber [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.817 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.07%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 63.81 million yuan, a significant decline of 64.52% year-on-year [1][8] - The decline in net profit is primarily attributed to the volatility in raw material prices and the price reductions of some products entering mass production [8] - The company has made strategic moves to enhance its core capabilities in high-temperature alloys, including a directed issuance of shares to its controlling shareholder and an investment in a new forging base [8] Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 3.408 billion yuan in 2023 to 5.294 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.44% [1][9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 319.13 million yuan in 2023 to 375.87 million yuan in 2027, with a notable recovery in growth rates after 2025 [1][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.40 yuan in 2023 to 0.47 yuan in 2027, reflecting an improving profitability outlook [1][9] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 17.90 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 14.27 billion yuan [5] - The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 46.18 for the current price and latest diluted earnings [1][5] Operational Insights - The company’s gross margin decreased from 31.90% in the previous year to 24.05% in the first half of 2025, primarily due to rising raw material costs and price concessions [8] - The company’s operating cash flow showed a net outflow of 267 million yuan in the first half of 2025, which is a narrowing of 39.43% year-on-year, indicating improved sales collection [8][9]

Market Overview - On August 25, A-shares experienced a significant upward trend, with all three major indices reaching new highs, and the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 3900 points. The market turnover exceeded 3 trillion yuan, marking a historical peak [1][4]. Defense and Military Industry - The defense and military sector showed heightened activity ahead of the upcoming September 3 military parade, with the "August 1" defense and military ETF (512810) surging by 2% and reaching its highest price since January 10, 2022 [1][4]. - The ETF recorded a total trading volume of 184 million yuan, indicating strong buying interest and potential large capital inflows [1]. Satellite Internet Sector - The satellite internet concept stocks saw a significant surge, with companies like Zhongke Xingtu and Huafeng Technology rising approximately 12%, while Shanghai Hantong and China Satellite hit the daily limit [3]. - A senior technical expert indicated that the issuance of satellite internet licenses marks a significant step towards commercial operations in China, although it may take 2-3 years to achieve services comparable to Starlink [3]. Event Catalysts - The upcoming military parade is expected to create short-term opportunities in the defense and military sector, with historical data showing that major parades often lead to significant price increases in related stocks [4]. - The "August 1" military ETF (512810) encompasses various themes, including commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, large aircraft, deep-sea technology, military AI, and controllable nuclear fusion, making it an efficient tool for investing in core defense and military assets [4].

Core Viewpoint - The defense and aerospace industry in China is expected to experience significant growth potential driven by multiple catalysts, including the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the "100th Anniversary of the Army" [1] Group 1: Industry Growth Potential - The defense and aerospace sector is projected to see substantial growth in both domestic and international demand from 2025 to 2027 due to various stimulating factors [1] - The military industry sector has been on a continuous upward trend since the end of June 2025, although there has been a slight recent pullback [1] - Upcoming events such as the September 3 military parade and the "15th Five-Year Plan" are expected to further boost industry performance [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - There has been a net inflow of leveraged funds for five consecutive weeks, indicating optimistic market expectations regarding the recovery of industry demand [1] - The military ETF (512660) tracks the CSI Military Industry Index (399967), which selects listed companies involved in defense sectors such as aerospace, shipbuilding, and weaponry [1] - The index employs a weighted methodology to reflect the overall performance of Chinese military-themed listed companies [1]