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学会这一招,让你坦然应对市场下跌!穿越牛熊
雪球· 2025-11-23 13:00
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of position management in investment, likening it to a "rudder" that helps navigate through market volatility, focusing on risk control and psychological strategies [3][4]. Group 1: Essence of Position Management - Position management is fundamentally about balancing "returns" and "risks," addressing how to allocate funds across different assets and how to dynamically adjust positions based on market conditions [5]. - A well-structured position management strategy can mitigate losses during market downturns while allowing for opportunities during market upswings, as illustrated by the example of maintaining a 60% stock and 40% bond allocation during the COVID-19 pandemic [5]. Group 2: Three Core Principles of Position Management - The first principle is "defensive priority," which emphasizes the importance of preserving capital and setting initial positions based on risk tolerance, such as a conservative 3:7 stock-to-bond ratio [6]. - The second principle is "dynamic rebalancing," which involves selling overperforming assets and buying undervalued ones to maintain a balanced portfolio [7][8]. - The third principle is "layered decision-making," distinguishing between strategic positions (60%-70% of total funds) for long-term holdings and tactical positions (30%-40%) for short-term opportunities [9][10]. Group 3: Practical Position Control Strategies and Cases - The "pyramid adding method" allows investors to accumulate positions gradually in volatile markets, reducing the risk of a single failed bottom-fishing attempt [11]. - The "volatility-weighted model" adjusts positions based on market volatility indicators like the VIX, allowing for strategic increases or decreases in stock holdings depending on market conditions [12][13][14]. - The "Kelly formula" helps determine the optimal investment proportion for individual stocks, ensuring that no single investment exceeds a calculated risk threshold [15][16]. Group 4: Responding to Extreme Markets - In bear markets, maintaining at least 20% cash for living expenses and opportunities, along with hedging assets, is crucial for risk management [17]. - In bull markets, retaining 10%-20% cash and implementing a phased profit-taking strategy can help lock in gains while avoiding the pitfalls of overexposure [18]. Group 5: Conclusion - Position management is portrayed as both an art and a science, focusing on rationality to counter greed and discipline to combat fear, ultimately aiming for long-term survival rather than quick wealth [19].