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优步(UBER):外卖超预期,保险影响减弱优化盈利
HTSC· 2025-05-11 07:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $93.70 [7][8] Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of $11.5 billion, a year-over-year increase of 13.8%, and a net profit of $1.8 billion, surpassing the expected $1.1 billion due to equity investment revaluation gains [1][2] - The report highlights that the company's core business has significant growth potential globally, particularly in the food delivery segment, which has shown strong profit elasticity [1][2] - The reduction in insurance costs is expected to enhance demand and improve profitability in the ride-hailing segment [2][3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are $51.1 billion, $58.8 billion, and $67.0 billion respectively, with a slight upward revision of 1% for each year [4][12] - Adjusted EBITDA is forecasted to be $8.7 billion, $11.1 billion, and $13.8 billion for the same years, reflecting an acceleration in food delivery profitability [4][12] - Net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are $5.9 billion, $7.5 billion, and $9.5 billion, with a notable increase in 2025 due to non-operating income from equity revaluation [4][12] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has established 18 partnerships in autonomous driving, enhancing its competitive position as a core platform in this emerging sector [3] - The report emphasizes the company's unique platform network scale advantage, which is crucial for providing integrated operations and user traffic in the autonomous driving space [3] Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a valuation multiple of 22x EV/EBITDA for 2025, compared to the industry average of 14.8x, reflecting the company's leading position in the global ride-hailing and food delivery markets [4][15] - The target market capitalization is projected at $195.9 billion, based on the estimated net cash of $5.4 billion [15]