尽管代理了无数竞业限制案件，律师崔灿一直记得一位女孩的故事。 她30岁出头，此前在杭州某大厂工作，几乎每天凌晨两三点下班。一次，她请假去拍婚纱照，没多久就 被公司召回，穿着婚纱跑回去加班。她觉得这样的生活很没有意义，选择了离职。 对竞业限制并无概念的她，入职了竞争对手公司，很快被前公司派的侦探拍到了证据。 当年的大年二十九前后，她因为得了严重的气胸在病床上等待手术时，收到了前司的传票。她被索赔两 倍年薪，一百五六十万。 女孩经常半夜痛哭，已经确诊重度抑郁。目前案件在一审过程中。崔灿感叹：一个传票轻飘飘的，其实 它重量很大。 近些年，竞业协议争议不断。某种程度上，它在职时是管理手段，离职时可以成为围猎普通人的工具。 崔灿长期代理竞业限制相关的案件，去年从团队独立之后，开始只接劳动者一方的竞业限制案件。我们 还请来一位互联网行业资深猎头，一起聊了有关竞业协议存在的七个争议，以及被竞业限制困住的普通 人的故事。 我们也会讨论，最高法最新的司法解释，以及人社部最新印发的"竞业限制合规指引"能为行业带来怎样 的改变？从公司角度，为什么要求员工签竞业？员工又该如何保护自己？ 以下是镜相工作室与律师崔灿、猎头杜康的对话： ...

每周 一 景：湖南衡阳衡山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【 海外策略】"秋日胜春朝"——四季度港股市场展望 上半年港股明显占优， 6 月后表现偏弱， 9 月以来已经重拾升势。 今年上半年，港股表现优异，涨幅在全球市场中居于前列，恒生指数、恒生科技指数最大 涨幅分别达到 33% 、 49% 。 6 月中旬至 8 月底港股股指阶段性表现弱于 A 股，港股科技板块跑输现象更为明显，这一现象或与港股权重科技稀缺资产表 现不佳存在一定关联。一方面，海内外科技巨头持续加码算力资本开支，对算力硬件端提振较大。另一方面阿里、京东和美团在外卖业务加大补贴，科技巨头 盈利增速一致预期持续下修，叠加近期 AI 应用软件端的催化相对较少，使得港股权重科技龙头股表现不佳。进入 9 月以来，伴随阿里巴巴、百度等互联网大 厂在 AI 领域的乐观情绪发酵，互联网叙事逐步转向" AI 赋能"，港股指数表现明显回暖，其中科技板块弹性更大。 当前港股估值其实并不高，科技板块性价比更加突出。 港股自 2024 年初后已处于牛市氛围中，今年以来也维持了震荡上行的格局。尽管港股市场前期积累 的涨幅已经较为可观，但目前估值仍不算高。尤其港股科技板块低估优 ...

中信证券发布研报称，予阿里巴巴-W(09988)"买入"评级。2025年2月以来，公司三大平台布局升级，以 外卖切入即时零售赛道。外卖业务作为高频刚需流量入口，能够有效拉动本地生活及电商业务，助力平 台占领未来零售业态竞争制高点。阿里巴巴"一个淘宝"战略升级，组织架构协同调整，会员权益全面打 通。闪购上线后，用户拉新与粘性提升效果显著，品类供给依托电商商家优势，在服饰、电子产品及美 妆个护领域形成差异化竞争，同时骑手运力快速补给。 该行表示，考虑阿里资金优势突出，认为中期预计形成以阿里、美团为核心的双寡头竞争格局。依靠双 模式发展全品类业务，该行预计FY2026-FY2028有望贡献1万亿增量GMV。公司强调提升规模后优化效 率，UE改善趋势明确下，该行预计闪购业务稳态盈利贡献可达183亿元，乐观估值情境下，基于远期估 值折现，2026年潜在市值提升空间近2,000亿元。 ...

该行表示，考虑阿里资金优势突出，认为中期预计形成以阿里、美团为核心的双寡头竞争格局。依靠双 模式发展全品类业务，该行预计FY2026- FY2028有望贡献1万亿增量GMV。公司强调提升规模后优化效 率，UE改善趋势明确下，该行预计闪购业务稳态盈利贡献可达183亿元，乐观估值情境下，基于远期估 值折现，2026年潜在市值提升空间近2,000亿元。 智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，予阿里巴巴-W(09988)"买入"评级。2025年2月以来，公司三 大平台布局升级，以外卖切入即时零售赛道。外卖业务作为高频刚需流量入口，能够有效拉动本地生活 及电商业务，助力平台占领未来零售业态竞争制高点。阿里巴巴"一个淘宝"战略升级，组织架构协同调 整，会员权益全面打通。闪购上线后，用户拉新与粘性提升效果显著，品类供给依托电商商家优势，在 服饰、电子产品及美妆个护领域形成差异化竞争，同时骑手运力快速补给。 ...

作者 | 范亮 编辑 | 张帆 8月底，随着美团、阿里、京东的财报相继落地，市场对外卖大战的关注焦点，从初级的补贴与单量竞争，升级为对企业 长期战略定力和财务实力的综合考验。 从自由现金流的角度看，阿里巴巴因持续在云业务等高科技领域投入大量资金，其25Q2自由现金流已经呈现大幅净流出状 态。美团方面，随着外卖业务在25Q3进入传统旺季，单量提升可能带来补贴金额的进一步增加，美团的自由现金流大概率 也会转为净流出。 作为对比，阿里巴巴近期已有出售资产回笼资金的举措，那么，美团会有相应的措施吗？ 美团资金：短期充裕 截至2025年上半年，美团账面现金及现金等价物合计1017亿元，受限制现金179亿元，以及短期理财投资694亿元。这三项 合计约1890亿元，表明美团从资产端拥有充足的流动性储备。 进一步对美团的资金偿付能力进行极限压力测试：假设美团需动用其货币性资产（包括现金、短期理财投资及应收款项） 来偿还短期债务（包括各类应付款项、借款及应付票据）。在这种极限情境下，美团的货币性资金总额约为1921亿元，在 偿还主要短期债务约935亿元后，仍能保持约986亿元的现金储备，财务安全垫依然比较深厚。 就未来经营层面 ...

Core Viewpoint - The focus of the market has shifted from basic competition in subsidies and order volume to a comprehensive assessment of the long-term strategic determination and financial strength of companies like Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com as their financial reports are released [1] Financial Performance - Alibaba's free cash flow has shown a significant net outflow due to substantial investments in high-tech areas like cloud services, with a free cash flow of negative figures in Q2 2025 [1] - Meituan is expected to see a similar trend, with its free cash flow likely turning into a net outflow as its food delivery business enters the traditional peak season in Q3 2025 [1] Cash Reserves and Liquidity - As of mid-2025, Meituan has a total of 101.7 billion yuan in cash and cash equivalents, with restricted cash of 17.9 billion yuan and short-term investments of 69.4 billion yuan, totaling approximately 189 billion yuan, indicating strong liquidity [2] - In extreme stress tests, Meituan's monetary assets can cover its short-term debts of about 93.5 billion yuan, leaving a cash reserve of approximately 98.6 billion yuan, suggesting a solid financial cushion [2] Future Cash Flow Projections - Meituan's EBITDA for the full year of 2025 is projected to be negative 4.5 billion yuan, with a significant cash outflow expected in the second half of 2025, potentially exceeding 20 billion yuan [2][3] - If the high subsidy expenditures for food delivery and flash purchase businesses continue, Meituan's cash reserves could decrease to between 50 billion and 70 billion yuan by the end of 2026 [3] Asset Optimization Strategies - Meituan has shown signs of optimizing its asset structure, with long-term investments totaling 43.4 billion yuan as of mid-2025, down from 48.8 billion yuan at the end of 2024, indicating a strategy to increase cash reserves [4][5] - The company has also reduced its long-term financial investments by 6.4 billion yuan and short-term financial investments by 2.8 billion yuan, reflecting proactive measures to bolster cash reserves [5] Potential Asset Liquidation - Meituan's significant holdings in listed companies, particularly in Li Auto, may be considered for liquidation to support core business development if necessary [6][8] - The potential sale of Li Auto shares could provide substantial cash flow and significantly enhance the company's net profit, given the floating profit of approximately 8 billion yuan from this investment [8] Market Impact on Li Auto - If Meituan decides to reduce its stake in Li Auto, it may exert downward pressure on Li Auto's stock price, although the impact may be limited if Li Auto maintains strong fundamentals and competitive products [9]

Core Viewpoint - JD.com management emphasizes that the core goal of its food delivery business is to achieve synergy with traditional e-commerce, enhance user engagement, and drive cross-selling opportunities [1][2][3] Group 1: Business Strategy - JD.com will not engage in reckless spending to capture market share in the food delivery sector, remaining unaffected by competitors' aggressive short-term strategies [2][5] - The food delivery business is positioned as a strategic extension of the e-commerce platform rather than merely a tool for market share acquisition [3][5] Group 2: User Conversion and Cross-Selling - Data shows that 40% of new users acquired through food delivery by March 2025 converted to e-commerce users by July [6] - Cross-selling primarily focuses on categories such as supermarkets, electronic accessories, and lifestyle service coupons [6] Group 3: Revenue Model - The long-term profitability of the food delivery business relies on three revenue pillars: fulfillment revenue to offset rider costs, and commission and advertising revenue to cover subsidies and other operating expenses [7][8] - Management anticipates that fulfillment revenue will eventually cover rider costs as the market stabilizes [7] Group 4: Market Challenges - The management acknowledges that achieving breakeven in the food delivery business is becoming more challenging due to increased competition and rising operational costs [9] - The breakeven order volume is expected to be higher than in previous years, with a typical breakeven point previously around 20 million daily orders [10] Group 5: Future Focus - In the short term, JD.com will continue necessary investments to maintain market positioning, focusing on improving subsidy efficiency, achieving breakeven through operational efficiency, and increasing monetization efforts [10]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan's report indicates that JD.com is not willing to engage in a costly battle for market share in the food delivery sector, reflecting that competitors' short-term actions will not affect the company's overall strategy [1] Group 1: Business Strategy - The company aims to achieve synergy with its traditional e-commerce business through food delivery services, enhancing cross-selling on its platform and increasing user stickiness [1] - Management emphasizes a focus on healthy growth in order volume and user base, along with improvements in unit economics (UE) [1] Group 2: User Conversion and Sales - In March, 40% of new users acquired through the food delivery service converted to e-commerce users by July [1] - Key product categories for cross-selling include supermarket goods, electronic accessories, and lifestyle service coupons, which have lower order values [1] - Management anticipates that it will take an additional 1 to 2 years for new users to contribute significantly to gross merchandise volume (GMV) and revenue [1] Group 3: Travel Platform Business - The company views its travel platform as a value-added service to meet user needs, noting that the frequency of travel orders is significantly lower than that of food delivery and e-commerce [1] - The company is not in a hurry to develop the travel business and plans to gradually build capacity and supply over a longer period [1]

交银国际研究 行业更新 互联网行业月报 8 月电商增长稳健；本地生活服务竞争拓展至到店 谷馨瑜,CPA connie.gu@bocomgroup.com (86)10 8393 5330 孙梦琪 mengqi.sun@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5333 赵丽, CFA 估值概要 | | | 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM 或 https://research.bocomgroup.com 2025 年 9 月 15 日 行业与大盘一年趋势图 资料来源 : FactSet 9/24 1/25 5/25 9/25 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 行业表现 MSCI中国指数 zhao.li@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5332 蔡涵 hanna.cai@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5334 行业评级 领先 2025 年 8 月实物电商网上零售额调整后同比增 7.1%（对比 7 月/2 季度增 8.3% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [6][25]. Core Views - The report indicates that increased subsidies have negatively impacted operational performance, with a significant decline in adjusted profit by 89% year-on-year for Q2 2025. Revenue reached 91.84 billion yuan, up 11.7% year-on-year, but operating profit fell to 230 million yuan, down 98% [1][8]. - The core local commerce segment remains the primary source of profit, generating 65.35 billion yuan in revenue, a 7.7% increase year-on-year. However, operating profit in this segment dropped by 75.6% [2][11]. - New business losses have narrowed sequentially, with revenue of 26.49 billion yuan, up 22.8% year-on-year, and an operating loss of 1.88 billion yuan, showing improvement from previous quarters [3][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, adjusted profit decreased by 89% to 1.49 billion yuan, with an adjusted net profit margin of 1.6%, down 14.9 percentage points year-on-year [1][8]. - The core local commerce segment's revenue was 65.35 billion yuan, with a significant decline in operating profit margin to 5.7%, down 19.4 percentage points year-on-year [2][11]. - New business revenue reached 26.49 billion yuan, with a narrowed operating loss of 1.88 billion yuan, improving from previous quarters [3][12]. Revenue Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are as follows: 370.34 billion yuan in 2025, 423.48 billion yuan in 2026, and 485.09 billion yuan in 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 9.7%, 14.3%, and 14.5% [5][22]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are -7.71 billion yuan in 2025, 31.76 billion yuan in 2026, and 46.57 billion yuan in 2027 [5][22]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the competitive landscape is intensifying, leading to increased strategic investments by the company to maintain market leadership and brand recognition [3][20]. - The company plans to focus on core areas and expand its supermarket business while exiting underperforming regions [3][12].