截至2月13日收盘，美团-W股价为82.15港元/股，总市值约5021亿港元（约合人民币4458亿元）。 今年以来，美团-W股价已下跌20.47%。 美团：2025年预亏233亿元-243亿元 2月13日晚间，美团在港交所发布盈利预警公告称，集团预期于截至2025年12月31日止年度 （2025年度）录得亏损约233亿元至243亿元，相比之下，本集团于截至2024年12月31日止年度 （2024年度）录得溢利约358.08亿元。 美团发布了一份巨亏账单！ 2月13日晚间，美团在港交所发布业绩预告，预计2025年亏损约233亿元至243亿元，并称今年一 季度将延续亏损。 对于2025年度的预期亏损原因，美团表示，主要是由于核心本地商业分部从2024年度约524.15亿 元的经营溢利转为2025年度约68亿元至70亿元的经营亏损，同时本集团进一步加大了海外业务的 投入。 美团还表示，为了应对2025年度行业空前激烈的竞争，该集团已战略性地加大对整个生态体系的 投入，以增强核心优势并推动可持续增长。这些举措主要包括： 1.在消费者端，强化营销推广力度，提升品牌影响力及价格竞争力，持续提高用户交易活跃 度与黏性； 2 ...

Group 1 - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 350.8 billion yuan in Q4 2025, representing a 1% year-on-year growth, while Non-GAAP net profit is projected to be 400 million yuan, primarily impacted by declining retail profits and investments in new businesses [1] - The retail business is showing a stable foundation, but revenue growth is slowing down, with an expected revenue of 298.126 billion yuan in Q4 2025, a year-on-year decline of 2.91%. The performance varies by category, with significant declines in the electric category due to high base effects and depletion of national subsidies, particularly in home appliances [1] - New businesses are expected to reduce losses sequentially, with healthy growth in takeaway orders. The overall performance of new businesses in Q4 2025 is anticipated to exceed expectations, with improved user experience (UE) in the takeaway segment and a slight increase in losses for Jingxi and international businesses, which remain within controllable limits [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2026, the impact of national subsidy policies is expected to weaken, leading to a tightening of the total amount of subsidies for consumer goods. The company's overall profit is anticipated to gradually recover due to the continued reduction in takeaway losses, with healthy growth in takeaway orders and further narrowing of losses [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards from 9.7/12.1/14.6 yuan to 8.3/9.1/11.2 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11.9/10.8/8.8 times for the respective years [2] - Despite the challenges faced by the retail business due to the decline in national subsidies, the company maintains a "buy" rating, considering the clear trend of reduced losses in the takeaway business [2]

| 人大营业收入 机构向称 | 净利润 | 同比。 | 经调整净利润 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 卖方预测区间 2715.47~3830.96 | -11.98~210.83 | -112.2%~114.0% | 1.52~35.85 | -98.7%~-68.3% | | - 3520.27 1.5% | 40.21 | -59.2% | 12.29 | -89.1% | | - 3505.99 | 19.93 | -79.8% | 9.80 | -91.3% | | 东吴证券 2026-02-03 3508.00 1.1% | -- | -- | 4.00 | -96.5% | | 招商证券 2026-02-02 -- -- | -- | -- | 4.52 | -96.0% | | 2026-01-27 3505.99 | -1 | -- | 1.52 | -98.7% | | 2026-01-26 3506.00 | | (1 | 4.00 | -96.5% | | 国联民生证券 2026-01-20 3447.00 | -- | -- | -- ...

2025Q4 业绩前瞻：零售承压见底，新业务亏 损收窄 买入（维持） 证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) 京东集团-SW（09618.HK） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1,084,662 | 1,158,819 | 1,307,627 | 1,380,807 | 1,466,767 | | 同比（%） | 3.67% | 6.80% | 12.84% | 5.60% | 6.23% | | 归母净利润（百万元） %） 净利润（百万元） 同比Non-（GAAP | 35,200 | 47,827 | 26,305 | 28,935 | 35,590 | | 同比（%） | 24.73% | 35.90% | -45.00% | 10.00% | 23.00% | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 11.1 | 15.0 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 11.2 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） PE ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to experience short-term revenue pressure in Q4 2025 due to high base effects and holiday timing issues, but a recovery is anticipated in 2026 as the consumption environment improves and base effects diminish [1][3]. Group 1: Revenue and Growth - In December 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales slowed to 0.9%, primarily due to a high base in 2024 [1]. - The cumulative retail sales of social consumer goods in 2025 reached 50.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.7% compared to the previous year [1]. - Online retail sales in 2025 amounted to 15.9722 trillion yuan, growing by 8.6%, with physical goods online retail sales at 13.0923 trillion yuan, up by 5.2%, accounting for 26.1% of total retail sales [1]. Group 2: Category Performance - The retail performance of home appliances, audio-visual equipment, and communication devices showed significant growth, with retail sales reaching 1.1695 trillion, 1.0076 trillion, and 0.8675 trillion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 11%, 20.9%, and 6.3% [1]. - The company anticipates a decline in retail sales for electric products like home appliances and computers due to the impact of national subsidies and holiday timing, while daily necessities are expected to maintain double-digit growth driven by subcategories in supermarkets, health, and fashion [1][2]. Group 3: Business Strategy and Outlook - The company is focusing on optimizing its retail structure, with daily necessities and third-party (3P) ecosystem contributions expected to enhance revenue [2]. - The company’s commission and advertising revenues are projected to maintain double-digit growth due to increased activity from 3P merchants and higher marketing investments [2]. - The new business segment is on a clear path to reducing losses, with improvements in user experience (UE) for the food delivery service and controlled overall losses [2]. Group 4: Financial Projections - For Q4 2025, the company expects a revenue decline of 0.7% to 344.7 billion yuan, with short-term revenue fluctuations anticipated [1][3]. - Long-term revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.3015 trillion, 1.3678 trillion, and 1.4336 trillion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.3%, 5.1%, and 4.8% respectively [3]. - Adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 are forecasted at 26 billion, 28 billion, and 31.3 billion yuan, with corresponding adjusted PE ratios of 13, 12, and 10 times [3].

Market Overview - Global stock markets experienced a widespread decline, with the S&P 500 dropping 2.1% and erasing all gains for the year[3] - The Dow Jones fell by 1.8%, closing at 48,488.6 points, while the Nasdaq dropped 2.4% to 22,954.3 points[8] Commodity and Forex - Oil prices rose due to supply disruptions in Kazakhstan and geopolitical tensions, with WTI crude oil increasing by 1.51% to $60.34 per barrel[26] - Gold prices surged past $4,700 per ounce, closing at $4,765.8, marking a 3.71% increase[26] - The US Dollar Index fell 0.8% to 98.64, dropping below the 99 level for the first time in two weeks[26] Fixed Income - Japanese government bonds faced significant selling pressure, with 30-year yields rising over 25 basis points[28] - US Treasury yields increased by 1-8 basis points, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.29%[28] Banking Sector Insights - Over 40 trillion in long-term deposits are expected to face yield gaps by 2026, potentially leading to outflows[6] - The shift in deposits is likely to favor short-term products and smaller banks, with a portion moving to wealth management and insurance products[6] Individual Stock Highlights - JD.com projected a revenue of 350.4 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of only 1.0%[9] - Anta Sports is expected to face pressure on profit margins due to increased marketing costs for upcoming events[13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for JD Group (9618.HK) [2][8] Core Views - The fourth quarter performance is expected to stabilize, with policy benefits and business optimization contributing to a recovery in 2026 [2][8] - Revenue for Q4 2025 is projected to decline by 0.7% year-on-year to 344.7 billion RMB, influenced by high base effects and the timing of the New Year festival [8] - The retail business structure is being optimized, with growth supported by daily necessities and service revenues, while new business losses are on a clear reduction path [8] Financial Forecasts - Projected revenues for JD Group from 2025 to 2027 are 1,301.5 billion RMB, 1,367.8 billion RMB, and 1,433.6 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 12.3%, 5.1%, and 4.8% respectively [7][8] - Adjusted net profits for the same period are expected to be 25.98 billion RMB, 28.05 billion RMB, and 31.32 billion RMB, with growth rates of -46%, 8%, and 12% respectively [7][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) based on adjusted net profits are forecasted to be 8.15 RMB, 8.80 RMB, and 9.83 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][8] Business Performance Insights - The online retail sector is expected to show resilience, with a projected growth of 8.6% year-on-year in online retail sales for 2025, while physical goods online retail sales are expected to grow by 5.2% [8] - The daily necessities category is anticipated to maintain double-digit growth, driven by strong performance in supermarkets, health, and fashion segments [8] - The report highlights that the new business segments are on a path to reduce losses, with improvements in user experience and customer retention in the food delivery service [8]

Summary of Haidilao Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Haidilao International Holding Ltd. - **Industry**: Restaurant and Food Service Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In 2025, Haidilao's restaurant revenue experienced a slight decline, but overall group revenue increased due to growth in the Pomegranate series restaurants and takeout business, with an average selling price (ASP) slightly up compared to 2024 [2][4] - Profit in the second half of 2025 is under pressure due to rising raw material costs and table turnover rate challenges, impacting both profit margins and absolute profit figures [2][5] - The overall revenue for the group saw a small increase driven by the growth of the Pomegranate series and takeout services [4] 2026 Outlook - The outlook for 2026 is characterized as stable and conservative, with a slight increase in the number of stores and adjustments to closures based on actual performance [2][6] - The company aims to stabilize the table turnover rate based on 2025 levels and continue advancing the Pomegranate plan and smart middle platform construction [6][7] Management Changes - A management team adjustment was made to focus on the Pomegranate plan and smart middle platform development, with founder Zhang Yong returning as CEO, which will not alter the company's long-term strategy or existing policies [2][8] Takeout Business - Haidilao's takeout business saw a 100% increase in both revenue and profit in 2025, with plans to operate takeout as independent satellite stores and increase SKUs to enhance profitability [2][9] Brand Development and Competition - The expansion speed of the Yanjing barbecue brand has slowed due to intense market competition, lack of unique flavors and products, and customer dissatisfaction with service [2][10] - The company is exploring new areas through franchising, particularly in lower-tier markets, with good performance from franchise stores [3][18] Store Model Changes - The store model has changed, with a slowdown in the opening of new Yanjing stores due to unmet operational expectations and increased competition in the barbecue sector [11] - The average breakeven table turnover rate remains at approximately 2.5 times [16] Employee Costs and Marketing - Employee costs are expected to remain stable in 2026, with plans to optimize labor efficiency through kitchen upgrades [12] - Marketing expenses have increased significantly due to various promotional activities, and this trend will continue into 2026 [12] Innovation and New Brands - Innovative store types have performed well, with themes like fresh-cut and night snack showing increased customer engagement [13] - The "Pomegranate plan" focuses on developing new brands, with a shift towards collaboration with experienced external operators to reduce failure rates [19][20] Franchise Impact - The franchise business will contribute to the 2026 opening targets, although transitioning from direct to franchise operations may negatively impact overall revenue [21] - The franchise fee structure is generally fixed at over 10%, with adjustments based on individual store performance [22] Additional Important Information - The company plans to continue exploring partnerships with franchisees to enhance market coverage and brand influence [3][18] - The management is focused on maintaining a balance between direct and franchise operations to optimize revenue streams and minimize risks [21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [2][5][11] Core Views - The upcoming Q4 2025 financial report is expected to show revenue under pressure due to the reduction of national subsidies, with a projected revenue of CNY 348.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of only 0.5% [4][6] - The Non-GAAP net profit margin is anticipated to decline by 3 percentage points to 0.2% in Q4 2025, primarily due to the impact of subsidy reductions and an increase in the proportion of supermarket sales [4][7] - Revenue growth for JD Retail is expected to decrease by 3%, with significant declines in the sales of electronic products and home appliances, while the daily necessities category is projected to maintain double-digit growth [4][6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to CNY 1,305.6 billion, CNY 1,396.9 billion, and CNY 1,494.3 billion, reflecting adjustments of -2.2%, -2.5%, and -4.1% respectively [5][11] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are CNY 26.5 billion, CNY 29.6 billion, and CNY 33.3 billion, with adjustments of -11.9%, -28.6%, and -42.0% respectively [5][11] Operational Insights - The overall GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) for Q4 is expected to show low single-digit negative growth, influenced by the reduction of national subsidies and high base effects [4][6] - Active purchasing users and purchase frequency in e-commerce remain strong, although the decline in high-ticket items due to subsidy reductions is expected to impact average transaction prices and GMV growth [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - JD.com is expected to see a revenue growth of 1.2% year-on-year in Q4 2025, reaching 351.014 billion yuan, with a Non-GAAP net profit of 1.501 billion yuan, resulting in a net profit margin of 0.43%, down from 3.25% in the same period last year [1][2] Revenue and Profit Forecast - For Q4 2025, JD.com’s revenue is projected to grow by 1.2% year-on-year, while JD Retail's revenue is expected to decline by 2.7% [1] - The company anticipates a significant recovery in profits for 2026, influenced by the reduction of losses in the takeaway business and increased investments in overseas and other new businesses [2] Business Segment Performance - The daily necessities category continues to show strong performance with double-digit growth, although the growth rate has slightly decreased due to the timing of the Spring Festival [1] - The electric products category is experiencing a significant decline, with double-digit negative growth attributed to high base effects from government subsidies [1] New Business Developments - The takeaway business has notably reduced its losses, while losses from JD's other businesses, including JD X and international operations, have slightly increased [2] - The adjusted operating profit for JD Retail is expected to be around 8 billion yuan for the quarter, with a profit margin of approximately 2.7%, down from 3.3% in the previous year [2] Long-term Projections - Revenue forecasts for JD.com are 1.3078 trillion yuan and 1.3881 trillion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 12.86% and 6.14% [2] - Non-GAAP net profits are projected to be 27.449 billion yuan and 36.761 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, with year-on-year changes of -42.61% and 33.93% [2]