每经记者｜张怀水 高涵 郑雨航 每经编辑｜黄博文 2025年,世界经济在动荡中前行。挑战与机遇、破 坏与重塑、增长与风险、形成全年世界经济冷暖交织的图 景。 对中国而言,2025年既是"十四五"规划收官之年, 也是"十五五"规划谋篇布局之年。从顶层设计的定调到市 场信心的跃升，从法治基石的夯实到海南自贸港封关启 航,这十大新闻,正是解码这一年经济脉动与未来走向的 关键钥匙。 每经记者 | 张怀水 高 涵 郑雨航 中美元首釜山会晤 "十五五"规划建议公布 3 护航 民营经济促进法施行 4 跃升 上证指数站上4000点 5 H H 海 《哪吒2》爆红全球 西部 阿里、美团等即时零售大战 7》新篇 海南自贸港全岛封关 8 % 官或 AI竞赛催生供应链和能源 风暴 でき 美元降息,人民币升值 -10% 名言演观 关键词①：稳定 事件：中美元首釜山会晤 新闻：当地时间10月30日，国家主席习近平在韩国釜山同美国总统特朗普举行会晤。这是习近平主席同特朗普总统时隔6年再度见面，也是特朗普总统新 任期内中美元首首次会晤。两国元首同意加强双方在经贸、能源等领域合作，促进人文交流。在中美关系保持总体稳定之际，两国元首此次会晤达成 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：华夏基金财富家） 发生了什么？当前如何应对？今天聊一聊。 先说向好的一方面： AI业绩不错，关注"外卖大战"何时停止。 港股科技的基本面整体是没啥问题的。以恒生科技为例，它的涨跌基本是以阿里巴巴、腾讯、美团等等 大型科技公司高度相关，这几个要是涨，指数基本不会太差，这几个要是不涨，指数可能就会横住或者 下跌。 （数据来源：Wind，EPFR，华泰证券，2016.09-2025.11，过往数据不代表未来，不作为指数推荐） （数据来源：Wind，2025.01.01-2025.12.05，过往数据不代表未来，不作为指数推荐） 但是近期有一个点需要我们关注，就是日本央行加息。如果日本央行12月19日加息，可能导致借日元投 资港股的资金回流日本，加剧流动性压力。换句话说，不排除近期有国际资金从港股离开，使得指数承 压。此外，现在的11月、12月正好赶上欧美圣诞假期，那边的资金流入港股也可能进一步放缓。 关于资金的另一个消息是美联储降息。今天凌晨，美联储已经宣布降息25个基点。但本次降息预期在至 少此前2周内就已达成普遍共识，所以无论是美股还是港股，反应都比较一般。因此，综合上述的多空 数据来看 ...

Core Insights - The domestic local life service market is entering a nuanced phase with intensified competition among platforms focusing on users, merchants, and instant delivery [1][5] - The third quarter serves as a critical window to observe the resilience and strategic determination of Meituan's core business [1][5] Group 1: Competition and Resource Allocation - The third quarter is typically an active period for local life services, with fierce competition for user attention and spending, particularly impacting Meituan's traditional strength in food delivery [2][6] - To maintain user engagement and spending, platforms are increasing resource investments, including consumer discounts and support for quality merchants, which directly affect short-term financial performance and long-term user loyalty [2][6] - The challenge for Meituan's management is to find a sustainable balance between market share, user experience, and financial health amid this competitive landscape [2][6] Group 2: Ecosystem Interconnectivity and Strategic Considerations - The competition in food delivery is interconnected with Meituan's broader local life service ecosystem, where high-frequency delivery transactions are crucial for attracting and retaining core users [3][7] - The intense competition prompts a reevaluation of resource allocation across the ecosystem, affecting the pace of investment in innovative businesses or long-term projects [3][7] - The ongoing competitive environment tests the unique value of Meituan's established instant delivery network, which is essential not only for food delivery but also for expanding into broader markets like instant retail [3][7] Group 3: Market Environment and Strategic Focus - The third quarter's market conditions act as a pressure test for Meituan's system resilience, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a solid foundation for core business amid ongoing competitive investments [4][8] - The essence of the local life service competition lies in deepening existing markets while exploring new scenarios, suggesting that the answer for Meituan may not solely be about "competition" but also about "integration" [4][8] - The next phase of this endurance race remains to be observed, highlighting the need for continuous improvement in operational efficiency and collaboration across business lines [4][8]

作者丨周慧 编辑丨巫燕玲 "烧"了多少钱？ 外卖大战从今年4月份京东的加入开局，二季度末，阿里淘宝闪购加入。 到了三季度，以美团、阿里、京东为代表的"外卖三国杀"进入了最疯狂的竞争补贴阶段，行业一度出 现"零元购"的补贴力度。 由于行业竞争进一步加剧，三季度美团核心本地商业经营利润转负，亏损141亿元。 2025年夏天，美团、阿里、京东三家平台，在利润率不高且并不时髦的外卖行业，贡献了一场全民参与 的商战。 从外卖"零元购"，奶茶店挤满等单的外卖骑手，再到监管点名和行业呼吁"反内卷"，三家外卖平台 的"参战"成绩如何？ 从财务数据来看，外卖业务补贴都给平台带来了亏损，公司整体盈利水平下降。三季报显示，仅三季 度，美团、阿里、京东三家平台的销售和市场费用就分别增加了163亿元、111亿元和340亿元，一共多 花了614亿，而增加的原因多与外卖业务有关。 而对于参与的商家而言，外卖大战对堂食产生了不利影响，导致外卖行业利润变薄。事实上，即便一些 以外卖为主的快餐品类订单量大涨，利润也在变薄，有些商家还会出现"订单越多，亏得也越多"的情 况。 平台已在反思。美团CEO王兴在财报电话会上表示，"过去六个月已证明这种竞 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5][37]. Core Insights - The report analyzes the recent financial performance of major players in the food delivery sector, including Meituan, JD Group, Alibaba, and Bawang Chaji, highlighting the impact of the ongoing delivery battle on their operations and profitability [1][2][3]. - It emphasizes that the low-frequency, low-ticket order subsidies are the primary reason for the significant losses in the instant retail business, which includes food delivery [2][19]. - The report suggests that the platforms are likely to return to a more rational subsidy strategy, focusing on high-ticket orders to improve unit economics [2][19]. Summary by Sections Meituan - In Q3 2025, Meituan reported revenues of 954.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, but faced an adjusted net loss of 160.1 billion yuan, shifting from profit to loss [1][6]. - The core local business revenue was 674.5 billion yuan, down 2.8%, with an operating loss of 140.7 billion yuan [8][10]. - The food delivery segment is expected to see a 15% increase in order volume, but a 13% decline in revenue due to a decrease in average order value (AOV) and lower monetization rates [8][10]. JD Group and Alibaba - JD Group's Q3 2025 new business losses reached 157 billion yuan, while Alibaba's instant retail business incurred losses of approximately 361 billion yuan, with a per-order loss of about 5.3 yuan [2][17]. - Both companies are experiencing significant pressure on their overall performance due to the losses in their instant retail segments [2][19]. Bawang Chaji - Bawang Chaji reported a revenue of 32.08 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a decrease of 9.4%, with an adjusted net profit of 5.03 billion yuan, down 22.2% [3][21]. - The company has chosen a cautious approach to the delivery battle, avoiding price wars to maintain brand integrity and product strategy [3][32]. - The report notes that Bawang Chaji's same-store GMV declined by 27.9% in the Greater China region, reflecting the competitive pressures in the market [21][32]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading restaurant brands that are likely to benefit from increased subsidy efforts and are in a strong operational season, such as Guoquan, Haidilao, Yum China, and Xiaocaiyuan [3][37]. - It also highlights the potential of tea brands like Guming and Mixue Group, which are actively expanding their product offerings and private traffic strategies [3][37].

Core Insights - Meituan's 3Q25 performance slightly missed expectations, with management anticipating a narrowing of core local commerce (CLC) operating losses in 4Q25 [3][4] Financial Performance - 3Q25 revenue reached RMB 95.5 billion, a 2% year-over-year increase but 2% below market consensus [3] - CLC revenue declined by 2.8% year-over-year to RMB 67.4 billion, while new initiatives revenue rose by 16% year-over-year to RMB 28 billion [3] - CLC operating loss widened to RMB 14.1 billion, compared to a consensus loss of RMB 13 billion, with an operating margin of -21% [3][4] - Adjusted net loss was RMB 16 billion, slightly larger than the expected RMB 14 billion loss [3] Market Dynamics - Competitive intensity in food delivery has decreased since Singles' Day, allowing Meituan to recover market share in order value while maintaining a leading gross transaction value (GTV) share [4] - The company expects the food delivery segment to incur notable operating losses in 4Q25, depending on competition levels in December [4] New Initiatives and Growth - Management indicated that the operating loss for Instashopping may slightly widen in 4Q25 due to increased investments in user experience during promotional campaigns [5] - The launch of Branded Flagship InstaMart in October has shown potential, with hundreds of partner brands achieving over 300% year-over-year sales growth during Singles' Day [5]

Core Insights - The recent earnings reports from JD, Alibaba, and Meituan reflect the impact of the intense competition in the food delivery sector, indicating a shift in strategy as companies reassess their investments and profitability boundaries [1][3][5] Group 1: Company Strategies - Meituan's CEO Wang Xing firmly opposes price wars in the food delivery sector, stating that they do not create value for the industry [1] - Alibaba's e-commerce CEO Jiang Fan highlighted improvements in unit economics for instant retail, indicating a significant reduction in short-term losses and a notable decrease in overall investment in flash purchase business for the next quarter [1][3] - JD has quietly reduced its investment in food delivery services in the third quarter, signaling a strategic retreat from aggressive competition [1][3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The food delivery market is entering a more complex phase where companies express a desire to avoid price wars but feel compelled to continue competing [2][5] - The competitive landscape has shifted, with Meituan capturing 47.1% of the market share, Alibaba at 42.3%, and JD at 8.4%, indicating a significant change from previous perceptions of a more balanced market [5] - The reduction in subsidies has led to a noticeable decline in order volumes for both consumers and merchants, with reports of a 20% drop in sales for some businesses [4][5] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumers have adjusted their habits, with many now favoring Meituan and Alibaba's flash purchase services, noting that flash purchase prices are often lower while Meituan offers more reliable delivery speeds [3][4] - The decrease in subsidies has been felt by consumers, with many reporting a reduction in the frequency of low-priced promotions [3][4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The next phase of competition will focus on efficiency rather than capital expenditure, with companies expected to adapt their strategies based on market dynamics [6][8] - Both Meituan and Alibaba are exploring new strategies, such as Meituan's focus on high-value orders and Alibaba's emphasis on "explosive product groups" to enhance customer engagement and reduce decision-making time [7][8] - The ongoing challenges from previous low-price competition will require platforms to innovate in supply chain and operations to emerge successfully from the current market conditions [8]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent developments in the food delivery industry, particularly focusing on the financial reports of major players like JD.com, Alibaba, and Meituan, highlighting the impact of the "delivery war" on their business strategies and financial performance [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The food delivery battle has led to significant financial strain, prompting companies to reconsider their investment strategies and operational efficiency [2][7]. - Meituan's CEO Wang Xing emphasized the unsustainable nature of the price war, indicating a shift towards efficiency-driven competition rather than capital-driven growth [7][9]. - The market share dynamics have shifted, with Meituan holding 47.1%, Alibaba at 42.3%, and JD.com at 8.4% as of Q3 2025, indicating a significant change from previous perceptions of market distribution [6]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Strategy Adjustments - Alibaba's CFO Xu Hong noted that Q3 represented a peak in investment for flash purchase services, with expectations for significant reductions in the following quarter [3][5]. - Meituan and JD.com have already begun to reduce their subsidies, with Meituan's delivery volume and rider earnings declining as a result of the reduced promotional activities [4][6]. - The article highlights a trend where consumers are noticing a decrease in delivery subsidies, impacting their purchasing behavior and the overall market dynamics [4][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategic Shifts - The next phase of competition will focus on operational efficiency and innovation, with companies like Alibaba and Meituan exploring new strategies such as "explosive product groups" and "meal sharing" to attract consumers [10][11]. - Both companies are adjusting their focus towards higher-value orders, with Meituan reporting that over 70% of its orders exceed 30 yuan, indicating a strategic pivot towards more profitable segments [10][11]. - The article concludes that the ability to innovate and enhance supply chain operations will be crucial for companies to navigate the post-subsidy landscape and emerge successfully from the current market challenges [12].

Core Insights - Teh Hai International (09658.HK) reported a revenue of $214 million for Q3, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, but the operating profit decreased by 15.4% to approximately $12.6 million, although it showed a quarter-on-quarter improvement of 240.5% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders fell dramatically by 90.4% to $3.609 million, primarily due to a significant increase in exchange losses compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Revenue Breakdown - The core revenue driver remains the dining operations, contributing $201 million in Q3, a 5.1% increase year-on-year, driven by store expansion and increased customer traffic and table turnover [2] - The average customer spending decreased to $24.6, down from $25.8, reflecting a 4.6% decline, attributed to pricing adjustments and marketing strategies aimed at increasing customer frequency and traffic [3][4] Customer Traffic and Store Expansion - The total customer traffic for Q3 exceeded 8.1 million, a 9.5% increase from 7.4 million in the same period last year, with an average table turnover rate of 3.9 times per day, slightly up from 3.8 times [4] - The company opened 10 new restaurants this year, bringing the total to 126, with plans for more openings despite some delays due to property handover and construction timelines [5] Delivery and Other Revenue Streams - The delivery business showed significant growth, achieving $4.4 million in revenue, a 69.2% increase year-on-year, as the company expanded its delivery channels and product offerings [6] - Other business segments generated $8.9 million in revenue, up 74.5%, driven by increased sales of hot pot condiments and contributions from the "Pomegranate Plan" which incubates new restaurant brands [7] Brand Development and Localization - The "Pomegranate Plan" aims to develop independent new brands outside of the hot pot segment, with successful launches in Canada and ongoing projects in Indonesia, Vietnam, and Japan [8] - The localization rate of customers has been steadily increasing, with over 90% in Asian markets like Korea and Indonesia, while North America shows a localization rate of 40%-50% [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Meituan believes the industry's losses have peaked, but the takeaway food business will still face pressure in the fourth quarter [1] - The company plans to make necessary investments to maintain its leadership position but will not engage in price wars [1] - Meituan will dynamically adjust resources based on competitive conditions and continue to enhance service experience and operational efficiency advantages [1]