Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's report indicates that Meituan's unit economics (UE) for its food delivery business showed significant quarter-on-quarter improvement in Q4 of last year, with expectations for further enhancement in Q1 of this year, driven by a strategic focus on high average order value (AOV) and quality users [1] Group 1 - Meituan's execution in overseas markets has been validated, with Keeta achieving profitability in Hong Kong, and expectations for unit economics in Saudi Arabia to turn positive by the end of 2026 [1] - Citigroup forecasts that core local e-commerce (CLC) will return to profitability in Q3 of this year, with the possibility of narrowing losses occurring as early as Q2, which could support the stock price [1] - Citigroup has raised its total revenue forecasts for Meituan for this year and next, increasing the target price from HKD 94 to HKD 110, and upgraded the rating to "Buy/High Risk" [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Green Tea Group [2][14]. Core Insights - Green Tea Group is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 5.89 billion, RMB 7.16 billion, and RMB 8.46 billion for 2026-2028, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.7%, 21.6%, and 18.1% respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at RMB 641 million, RMB 779 million, and RMB 963 million, with corresponding growth rates of 31.7%, 21.6%, and 23.7% [3][14]. - The company reported strong performance in 2025, with revenue reaching RMB 4.76 billion (+24.1% YoY) and adjusted net profit at RMB 509 million (+41.0% YoY). Same-store sales resumed growth from Q2 2025, and the company added 157 new stores, bringing the total to 609 [4][15]. - The overseas expansion is becoming a significant growth driver, with overseas revenue exceeding RMB 140 million in 2025, representing a 15-fold increase year-on-year. The company aims to add over 15 overseas stores in 2026, targeting a total of over 30 stores [6][18]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for Green Tea Group are as follows: RMB 4,763 million for 2025, RMB 5,892 million for 2026, RMB 7,164 million for 2027, and RMB 8,463 million for 2028, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 24.1%, 23.7%, 21.6%, and 18.1% [9][12]. - The net profit for the same years is projected to be RMB 486 million, RMB 640 million, RMB 779 million, and RMB 963 million, with net profit margins of 10.2%, 10.9%, 10.9%, and 11.4% respectively [9][12]. - The company maintains a gross profit margin of 68.3% across the forecast period [9][12]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding into lower-tier cities, with over 60% of new stores planned for tier-2 and below, where profit margins are higher. The target for 2026 is approximately 30% store growth, equating to 180-190 new stores [5][17]. - Delivery services have increased to 25.3% of total revenue, with a significant year-on-year growth of 66.5% in delivery revenue. The company aims to keep the delivery mix below 30% to protect the dine-in experience [5][16]. - The company is actively adjusting its store formats and enhancing menu innovation to adapt to changing consumer preferences, particularly the shift from business dining to family dining [19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a 41% year-on-year increase in adjusted net profit for 2025, aligning with expectations. Revenue is projected to reach 4.763 billion HKD, representing a 24.1% increase [1][10]. - The restaurant and takeaway segments are expected to generate revenues of 3.54 billion HKD and 1.2 billion HKD respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.2% and 66.5% [1][10]. - The company plans to accelerate store expansion in 2026, with a total of 609 stores by the end of 2025, marking a 31% increase year-on-year [2][14]. - The average cash recovery period for new store models is 12.6 months, with significant revenue growth expected from new openings in shopping centers [2][14]. - The company has seen a stabilization in same-store sales growth, with a slight decline of 0.8% year-on-year, but an improvement in net profit margin due to enhanced operational efficiency [3][21]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to have a revenue of 4.763 billion HKD and an adjusted net profit of 508 million HKD, with a net profit margin of 10.7% [5][21]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.72 HKD in 2026, with a projected PE ratio of 7.6x for 2026 [5][22]. - The company anticipates a dividend payout of 0.52 HKD per share [1][10]. - The financial forecasts indicate a steady growth trajectory, with revenues expected to reach 8.38 billion HKD by 2028 [5][22].

Group 1: Economic Impact of "Spring Festival Displacement" - The "Spring Festival displacement" is expected to elevate economic data for January and February while suppressing March data, primarily affecting the supply side more than the demand side [9][10] - Historical analysis indicates that the "Spring Festival displacement" can cause significant fluctuations in quarterly economic data, with some years seeing changes of up to 40 percentage points [9] - This year's earlier return home phenomenon may amplify the impact of the "Spring Festival displacement," potentially increasing export growth by 8.4 percentage points in January and February while decreasing it by 18.6 percentage points in March [9][10] Group 2: Production and Export Trends - Production across upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors has shown improvement, with industrial production levels better than those at the end of December 2025 [9][10] - Export data for January and February indicates a significant recovery, with port cargo throughput increasing by 7.4 percentage points compared to December 2025 [9][10] - The internal demand shows a mixed performance, with consumer spending recovering while investment indicators display varied results [9][10] Group 3: Investment Outlook - Fixed investment growth is expected to improve compared to December 2025, although the rebound may be limited due to ongoing pressures in the real estate sector [11][12] - The decline in special refinancing bonds and the gradual formation of investments from policy financial tools are anticipated to support infrastructure investment [11][12] - Overall, the investment landscape remains cautious, with manufacturing investment constrained by previous profit declines and equipment renewal cycles [11][12] Group 4: Shipping and Transportation Industry Insights - The oil shipping market is experiencing high demand, with VLCC spot rates reaching historical highs, leading to increased orders in the shipbuilding sector [19][20] - The shipping market's high demand is expected to positively influence the overall shipbuilding market, with oil tankers becoming the primary new order source [19][20] - The second-hand ship prices have been rising for 13 consecutive months, indicating a potential upward trend in overall ship price indices [19][20] Group 5: Export Data Analysis - The customs data for January and February shows a significant increase in exports, with a year-on-year growth of 21.8%, driven by the "Spring Festival displacement" and improved external demand [22][23] - Labor-intensive industries such as textiles and furniture have seen substantial export rebounds, reflecting the direct impact of the "Spring Festival displacement" [22][23] - The outlook for exports remains positive, with expectations of sustained growth throughout the year despite potential declines in March due to the "Spring Festival displacement" effects [22][23]

Report Title - Overseas Equity (Hong Kong and US Stocks) Weekly Strategy Report [1] Report Date - March 8, 2026 [2] Analyst Information - Analyst: Dai Lu (Z0021475), Contact: Yang Teng (F03151619) [2] US Stocks Market Performance - This week, the "geopolitical situation" remained unresolved, and the US stock market continued its defensive and wait - and - see stance. The energy sector led the gains, while the three major US stock indexes declined. The rise in oil and gas prices reignited stagflation concerns, causing the consumer sector to perform weakly [3][5] - The VIX index soared to its highest level since April last year [4] Investment Strategy - Short - term: Maintain a certain defensive position (military/energy) and appropriately reduce the overall risk appetite of the portfolio. Wait for the situation to become clearer and then enter the market at low levels. Also, pay attention to the potential fluctuations brought by Oracle's earnings report and February CPI data next week [5][9] - Medium - to - long - term: US stock investment will return to fundamental endogenous factors. Hardware + HALO assets are favored [9] Key Events to Watch - Oracle will release its latest earnings report on March 11th. Last December, Oracle's earnings report with higher - than - expected CAPEX and lower - than - expected revenue triggered a pulse adjustment in the US stock market [6] Chinese - funded Stocks Market Performance - This week, the A - share and Hong Kong stock markets oscillated and closed lower. The trading theme was centered around "geopolitical games", with sectors such as petroleum and petrochemicals, shipping, and dividends leading the gains [10][11] Investment Strategy - Short - term: Maintain a balanced allocation of defensive sectors and wait for the situation to become clearer before buying at low levels [11] - Medium - term: A - shares are considered better than Hong Kong stocks. Adopt a balanced allocation strategy of technology + physical cycle, with a focus on the contraction of the technology circle (upstream infrastructure (domestic and foreign demand chains) > mid - stream cloud computing > downstream application software) [16] Hong Kong Stocks Market Performance - On Friday, the Hang Seng Technology Index rebounded strongly. This was due to JD.com signaling a reduction in takeaway investment. JD.com's Q4 conference call announced that the investment scale of its takeaway business in 2026 would be lower than the previous year, triggering a large - scale short - covering in the Hang Seng Technology Index [13][16] Investment Strategy - Short - term: Keep a certain defensive position (energy, military, and dividends) to hedge risks and wait for the situation to become clearer before buying at low levels [16] - Medium - term: A - shares are preferred over Hong Kong stocks. Hong Kong stocks face potential headwinds, such as VAT rumors, the threat of software business models being disrupted by large - scale models, and weak liquidity. HALO assets are more concentrated in A - shares [16]

Core Viewpoint - Meituan is expected to report a significant loss of approximately 23.3 billion to 24.3 billion yuan for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, contrasting with a profit of about 35.8 billion yuan for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024 [2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - Meituan anticipates a loss of around 23.3 billion to 24.3 billion yuan for 2025, primarily due to a shift from an operating profit of approximately 52.4 billion yuan in 2024 to an operating loss of about 6.8 billion to 7 billion yuan in 2025 for its core local commerce segment [2] - The company's stock price has declined by 20.47% since the beginning of the year, closing at 82.15 HKD per share, with a total market capitalization of approximately 502.1 billion HKD (about 445.8 billion yuan) as of February 13 [1][2] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - To address the anticipated losses and intense competition in 2025, Meituan plans to increase investments across its ecosystem, focusing on enhancing core advantages and promoting sustainable growth [2] - Key initiatives include strengthening marketing efforts to boost brand influence and user engagement, increasing incentives for delivery personnel to improve service quality, and supporting merchants in enhancing operational efficiency and expanding consumer reach [2][3] Group 3: Recent Acquisitions - Meituan has acquired 100% of the Chinese business of Dingdong Maicai for approximately 717 million USD (about 4.98 billion yuan), which aligns with its long-term development strategy in the grocery retail sector [5] - The acquisition is expected to enhance Meituan's supply chain capabilities and operational efficiency, as Dingdong Maicai operates over 1,000 front warehouses and has a monthly purchasing user base exceeding 7 million [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - Despite the recent decline in the Hang Seng Tech Index, which fell by 6.26% in February, some institutions view this as a favorable opportunity for investment, citing the potential for a rebound due to attractive valuations and improving fundamentals [6][7] - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions present a "golden layout window" for investors, emphasizing the importance of strategic positioning in the tech sector [6][7]

Group 1 - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 350.8 billion yuan in Q4 2025, representing a 1% year-on-year growth, while Non-GAAP net profit is projected to be 400 million yuan, primarily impacted by declining retail profits and investments in new businesses [1] - The retail business is showing a stable foundation, but revenue growth is slowing down, with an expected revenue of 298.126 billion yuan in Q4 2025, a year-on-year decline of 2.91%. The performance varies by category, with significant declines in the electric category due to high base effects and depletion of national subsidies, particularly in home appliances [1] - New businesses are expected to reduce losses sequentially, with healthy growth in takeaway orders. The overall performance of new businesses in Q4 2025 is anticipated to exceed expectations, with improved user experience (UE) in the takeaway segment and a slight increase in losses for Jingxi and international businesses, which remain within controllable limits [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2026, the impact of national subsidy policies is expected to weaken, leading to a tightening of the total amount of subsidies for consumer goods. The company's overall profit is anticipated to gradually recover due to the continued reduction in takeaway losses, with healthy growth in takeaway orders and further narrowing of losses [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards from 9.7/12.1/14.6 yuan to 8.3/9.1/11.2 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11.9/10.8/8.8 times for the respective years [2] - Despite the challenges faced by the retail business due to the decline in national subsidies, the company maintains a "buy" rating, considering the clear trend of reduced losses in the takeaway business [2]

Core Viewpoint - JD Group is expected to report a mixed performance in Q4 2025, with revenue forecasts ranging from 271.55 to 383.10 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -21.7% to 10.4% [1][6][8] - The net profit is projected to be between -1.20 to 21.08 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change of -112.2% to 114.0% [1][6][8] - Adjusted net profit is anticipated to be between 0.15 to 3.58 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year change of -98.7% to -68.3% [1][6][8] Revenue Forecast - The revenue forecast for JD Group in Q4 2025 is between 271.55 billion and 383.10 billion yuan, with a significant range indicating uncertainty in performance [1][6][8] - Specific predictions include a revenue of 350.80 billion yuan, representing a 1.1% increase year-on-year [2][8] Profitability Insights - The expected net profit range indicates a potential loss, with estimates showing a drastic decline compared to the previous year [1][6][8] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be negatively impacted by declining retail profits and investments in new business ventures [2][9] Business Segment Analysis - Retail business revenue is projected to reach 298.13 billion yuan, down 2.91% year-on-year, with significant declines in the sales of electronic products [3][9] - New business losses are expected to narrow, with improvements in user experience (UE) and healthy growth in order volume for the food delivery segment [4][9] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in profits in 2026, driven by improvements in the food delivery business and manageable losses in JD's new ventures [4][11] - The implementation of national subsidy policies in 2026 is expected to enhance retail demand, particularly for home appliances and digital products [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report anticipates that JD Group's retail business is under pressure but is expected to reach a bottom, while losses from new businesses are narrowing [1] - Revenue for Q4 2025 is projected to be CNY 350.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1%, with Non-GAAP net profit expected to be CNY 400 million, primarily impacted by declining retail profits and ongoing investments in new businesses [9] - The retail business is expected to see a revenue decline of 2.91% year-on-year, with significant pressure on the home appliance category due to high base effects and the depletion of government subsidies [9] - New businesses are showing improved performance with reduced losses, particularly in the food delivery segment, which is experiencing healthy growth in order volume [9] - For 2026, profits are expected to recover as the trend of reduced losses in the food delivery business continues, although the impact of government subsidy policies will diminish [9] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for JD Group are as follows: - 2023: CNY 1,084.66 billion - 2024: CNY 1,158.82 billion - 2025: CNY 1,307.63 billion - 2026: CNY 1,380.81 billion - 2027: CNY 1,466.77 billion - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are projected at 3.67% for 2023, 6.80% for 2024, 12.84% for 2025, 5.60% for 2026, and 6.23% for 2027 [1] - Non-GAAP net profit projections are as follows: - 2023: CNY 35.20 billion - 2024: CNY 47.83 billion - 2025: CNY 26.31 billion - 2026: CNY 28.94 billion - 2027: CNY 35.59 billion - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at 24.73% for 2023, 35.90% for 2024, -45.00% for 2025, 10.00% for 2026, and 23.00% for 2027 [1] - The latest diluted EPS projections are: - 2023: CNY 11.10 - 2024: CNY 15.00 - 2025: CNY 8.30 - 2026: CNY 9.10 - 2027: CNY 11.20 [1] Valuation Metrics - The report adjusts the EPS (Non-GAAP) forecasts for 2025-2027 to CNY 8.30, CNY 9.10, and CNY 11.20 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.9, 10.8, and 8.8 times [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to experience short-term revenue pressure in Q4 2025 due to high base effects and holiday timing issues, but a recovery is anticipated in 2026 as the consumption environment improves and base effects diminish [1][3]. Group 1: Revenue and Growth - In December 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales slowed to 0.9%, primarily due to a high base in 2024 [1]. - The cumulative retail sales of social consumer goods in 2025 reached 50.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.7% compared to the previous year [1]. - Online retail sales in 2025 amounted to 15.9722 trillion yuan, growing by 8.6%, with physical goods online retail sales at 13.0923 trillion yuan, up by 5.2%, accounting for 26.1% of total retail sales [1]. Group 2: Category Performance - The retail performance of home appliances, audio-visual equipment, and communication devices showed significant growth, with retail sales reaching 1.1695 trillion, 1.0076 trillion, and 0.8675 trillion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 11%, 20.9%, and 6.3% [1]. - The company anticipates a decline in retail sales for electric products like home appliances and computers due to the impact of national subsidies and holiday timing, while daily necessities are expected to maintain double-digit growth driven by subcategories in supermarkets, health, and fashion [1][2]. Group 3: Business Strategy and Outlook - The company is focusing on optimizing its retail structure, with daily necessities and third-party (3P) ecosystem contributions expected to enhance revenue [2]. - The company’s commission and advertising revenues are projected to maintain double-digit growth due to increased activity from 3P merchants and higher marketing investments [2]. - The new business segment is on a clear path to reducing losses, with improvements in user experience (UE) for the food delivery service and controlled overall losses [2]. Group 4: Financial Projections - For Q4 2025, the company expects a revenue decline of 0.7% to 344.7 billion yuan, with short-term revenue fluctuations anticipated [1][3]. - Long-term revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.3015 trillion, 1.3678 trillion, and 1.4336 trillion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.3%, 5.1%, and 4.8% respectively [3]. - Adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 are forecasted at 26 billion, 28 billion, and 31.3 billion yuan, with corresponding adjusted PE ratios of 13, 12, and 10 times [3].