期内溢利为360万美元，2024年同期为3770万美元。除前述经营溢利减少外，此变动主要原因是2025年 第三季度汇兑亏损净额较2024年同期增加3170万美元，该增加主要受汇率波动影响，尤其是当地货币对 美元之重估变动。 格隆汇11月26日丨特海国际(09658.HK)公布公司及其附属公司截至2025年9月30日止三个月的未经审核 财务业绩(「第三季度业绩」)。收入为2.14亿美元，较2024年同期的1.99亿美元增长7.8%。 海底捞餐厅经营的收入为200.7百万美元，较2024年同期190.9百万美元增长5.1%。该增长主要由于(i)业 务持续扩张和品牌影响力提升；以及(ii)我们在提高客流量和翻台率方面做出的持续努力。外卖业务收 入为4.4百万美元，较2024年同期的2.6百万美元增长69.2%。该增长主要由于(i)根据市场需求持续优化 外卖产品与服务；以及(ii)与当地外卖平台进行战略营销合作。其他业务收入为8.9百万美元，较2024年 同期的5.1百万美元增长74.5%，该增长主要由于(i)火锅调味品在当地客户和零售商中越来越受欢迎；以 及(ii)在「红石榴计划」的业态多元化战略下，不断探索孵化第 ...

摩根大通称，阿里巴巴综合盈利预计在2025年Q3迎来拐点，并于Q4显著复苏。核心驱动力来自外卖业务亏损大幅收窄，预计Q4环比有望收 窄40%至210亿元；同时，云业务在强劲AI需求下加速增长，预计Q4同比有望增长37%。 摩根大通11月26日发布的研报表示，阿里巴巴的战略演变正进入第二阶段，增长模式正从过去的用户规模驱动，转向盈利能力更强的效率驱 动，盈利拐点或已出现。 该行分析师团队"预计阿里巴巴的综合盈利在2025年3季度（2025年9月结束季度）达到拐点，并随着公司从用户规模驱动的增长模式转变为盈利能力 更强的效率驱动模式而于2025年4季度开始显著复苏"。 在市场份额方面，该业务保持稳定，报告指出"外卖业务目前的GMV市场份额仍保持在约40%"。更重要的是，其亏损正在快速收窄。摩根大 通预计，"外卖闪购业务亏损将进一步收窄，从9月结束季度的350亿元收窄至12月结束季度的210亿元"。 阿里巴巴的战略重心正发生根本性转变，从过去"不惜代价的增长"演变为"高效增长"。 报告强调，这项业务的改善并非孤立的，其客户留存率和订单频率的提高，正"与传统电商业务和新兴闪购业务产生强大的跨平台协同效 应，推动流量、 ...

在国补效应逐渐减弱、传统电商流量见顶的大背景下，京东试图用高频的外卖业务来带动整个平台活跃度。为了这场仗，刘强东亲自下场送外卖、站台卖 酒。 文 | 啸 天 京东集团交出了三季度财报。 数据显示，京东三季度实现营收2991亿元，同比增长14.9%，延续了2024年四季度以来连续四个季度的双位数增长态势。然而，这份亮眼成绩单背后，却 潜藏着巨大的隐忧。 深层焦虑可能来自"国补"政策的退坡。过去一年，"国补"为京东优势的电子产品类提供了强劲的增长动力。但随着政策效应边际递减，京东亟需找到新增 长引擎来填补空缺。 尤其是大举进军的"新业务"板块。新业务板块的营收同比暴涨213.7%至155.92亿元，但经营亏损却达到创纪录的157.36亿元。将时间线拉长至今年前九个 月，京东新业务累计亏损已达318.4亿元。一换算，刘强东每天醒来，就要亏掉1.16亿元。 在国补政策效应逐渐减弱、传统电商流量见顶的大背景下，京东试图用高频的外卖业务来带动整个平台的活跃度。为了这场仗，刘强东不惜亲自下场送外 卖、站台卖酒。 然而，巨额投入目前仍未换来回报。在这场关乎京东未来的押注中，刘强东是否正将这家互联网巨头推向未知的深渊？ 外卖" ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 146 / USD 38, indicating a potential upside of 17% for the Hong Kong stock and 24% for the US stock [3][5][6]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 revenue reached RMB 299.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, surpassing market expectations by 1.6%. However, the growth rate of product revenue significantly slowed to 10.5%, primarily due to a high base effect from last year's government subsidies [1][2]. - Service revenue showed strong performance, growing by 30.8%, driven by substantial increases in advertising and logistics revenue, which grew by 23.7% and 35.0%, respectively [1][2]. - The report anticipates that the impact of the high base will be more pronounced in Q4, potentially leading to further deceleration in growth rates [1]. Financial Summary - The adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 decreased by 56% to RMB 5.8 billion, with an adjusted net profit margin of 1.9%, down from 5.1% in the same period last year. This decline was attributed to a 111% increase in marketing expenses related to food delivery subsidies [2][4]. - The overall gross margin for the company was reported at 16.9%, a decline of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The report projects FY25E revenue at RMB 1,337.7 billion, with an adjusted net profit forecast of RMB 29.8 billion [4][8]. Market Performance - The current stock price is HKD 124.4, with a 52-week range of HKD 114.8 to HKD 180.8, and a total market capitalization of HKD 341.2 billion [5]. - The average daily trading volume over the past three months is HKD 1.87 billion [5]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a forward P/E ratio of 13.2x for FY25E and 8.0x for FY26E, indicating a favorable valuation compared to industry peers [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - East Asia Securities has lowered Alibaba's target price from HKD 178 to HKD 196, a decrease of 10%, and downgraded the investment rating from "Buy" to "Hold" [1] Financial Performance - Alibaba is expected to announce its Q2 fiscal results in mid-October, with overall revenue growth anticipated to slow to 4% year-on-year [1] - Cloud business revenue is projected to accelerate growth to over 30%, representing a potential highlight for the company [1] - Revenue from China's e-commerce business is expected to increase by 12% year-on-year, primarily driven by contributions from the flash purchase business [1] Investment Outlook - The forecasted price-to-earnings ratio for Alibaba over the next 12 months is 21.1 times, which is higher than the average since its listing in Hong Kong (19.2 times) by approximately 0.2 standard deviations [1] - Despite this, Alibaba's valuation remains significantly discounted compared to AI cloud companies listed in Europe and the US [1] - As domestic AI applications become more widespread, there is potential for upward adjustments in the valuation of Alibaba's cloud business, supporting a recovery in the company's overall valuation [1] - The target price-to-earnings ratio for the fiscal year 2027 is set at 21.8 times, with an adjusted earnings per share forecast of RMB 8.4 [1]

Core Points - The article discusses the increasing prevalence and controversy surrounding non-compete agreements in various industries, particularly in the tech sector, and highlights the impact on employees, especially younger ones [2][4][37] - It emphasizes the disparity in power dynamics between companies and employees regarding the enforcement of non-compete clauses, often leading to severe financial and emotional consequences for the latter [28][47][50] Group 1: Non-Compete Agreement Trends - Non-compete agreements have expanded to include lower-level employees, with 77% of affected individuals being grassroots workers, including security and cleaning staff [3][4] - The internet industry has the highest concentration of non-compete cases, followed by the automotive and manufacturing sectors, with a notable increase in companies that previously did not enforce such agreements now adopting them [4][5][41] - The scope of non-compete agreements has broadened significantly, often covering numerous related companies and industries, effectively limiting employees' future job opportunities [9][10][60] Group 2: Employee Experiences and Legal Implications - Many employees, particularly those in lower positions, are subjected to non-compete agreements despite lacking access to sensitive company information, leading to absurd situations where they face significant penalties for switching jobs [6][8][47] - The compensation for employees under non-compete agreements is often minimal, with some companies offering as low as 10-20% of their salary as compensation, while the penalties for breach can reach multiples of their annual salary [14][15][17] - Legal proceedings related to non-compete agreements often favor companies, as they have more resources and better access to legal representation, creating an uneven playing field for employees [28][36] Group 3: Industry and Legal Developments - Recent judicial interpretations and guidelines from the Supreme Court and the Ministry of Human Resources aim to clarify the legality and enforceability of non-compete agreements, particularly for non-sensitive positions [60] - The article suggests that the current legal framework may evolve to better protect employees and promote fairer practices in the enforcement of non-compete agreements [52][58] - There is a growing recognition that the overuse of non-compete agreements can stifle talent mobility and hinder industry growth, prompting calls for reform [47][49][53]

Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Market Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance in the first half of the year, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 33% and 49% respectively [4] - After a weak performance from mid-June to the end of August, the market rebounded in September, driven by optimism in the AI sector from major internet companies like Alibaba and Baidu [4][6] - Current valuations in the Hong Kong market are not high, with the Hang Seng Index trading at a PE of 12.1x, which is below the historical median and lower than the A-share market [5] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The technology sector in Hong Kong is expected to be the main driver of market performance in the fourth quarter, benefiting from trends in AI and potential foreign capital inflows due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6] - The valuation attractiveness of the technology sector is highlighted, with the Hang Seng Tech Index PE at 24.6x, which is at the 37th percentile historically [5] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Trends - The manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 49.8%, indicating a slight recovery but still below the expansion threshold, suggesting ongoing economic challenges [12] - The overall economic environment remains characterized by stronger supply than demand, with price transmission issues evident in the market [12] Group 4: Global Asset Performance - Major global stock indices showed positive performance leading up to the National Day holiday, with significant gains in Asian markets, including a 5.7% increase in the Nikkei 225 [13] - The bond market also saw a general upward trend, with 10-year U.S. Treasury yields declining by 2.0 basis points to 4.18% [13]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities has issued a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-W (09988), highlighting the company's strategic upgrades and potential for growth in the retail sector [1] Group 1: Business Strategy and Developments - Since February 2025, Alibaba has upgraded its three major platform layouts, entering the instant retail sector through its food delivery business [1] - The food delivery service acts as a high-frequency essential traffic entry point, effectively driving local life and e-commerce businesses, positioning the platform to capture future retail competition [1] - The "One Taobao" strategy has been upgraded, with organizational adjustments and comprehensive integration of member benefits [1] Group 2: User Engagement and Market Position - The launch of flash purchase services has significantly improved user acquisition and retention, with differentiated competition in categories such as apparel, electronics, and beauty products [1] - The rapid replenishment of delivery personnel enhances operational capacity [1] Group 3: Market Outlook and Financial Projections - CITIC Securities anticipates a dual oligopoly market structure centered around Alibaba and Meituan, driven by a dual-model approach to develop a full range of businesses [1] - The firm projects that from FY2026 to FY2028, Alibaba could contribute an additional 1 trillion GMV [1] - With a focus on scaling and efficiency optimization, the flash purchase business is expected to achieve stable profitability contributing up to 18.3 billion yuan, with a potential market value increase of nearly 200 billion yuan by 2026 under optimistic valuation scenarios [1]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities has issued a "buy" rating for Alibaba-W (09988), highlighting the company's strategic upgrades and potential for growth in the retail sector [1] Group 1: Business Strategy - Alibaba has upgraded its three major platform layouts since February 2025, entering the instant retail market through its food delivery service [1] - The food delivery business serves as a high-frequency traffic entry point, effectively driving local life and e-commerce operations, positioning the platform to capture future retail competition [1] - The "One Taobao" strategy has been upgraded, with organizational adjustments and comprehensive integration of member benefits [1] Group 2: Market Position and Competition - The launch of flash purchase services has significantly improved user acquisition and retention, with differentiated competition in categories such as apparel, electronics, and beauty products [1] - The rapid replenishment of delivery personnel enhances operational capacity [1] - The report anticipates a dual oligopoly market structure centered around Alibaba and Meituan, driven by a dual-model approach to develop a full range of services [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - The firm estimates that Alibaba could contribute an additional 1 trillion GMV from FY2026 to FY2028 [1] - With a focus on scaling and efficiency optimization, the flash purchase business is projected to achieve stable profitability contributing up to 18.3 billion yuan [1] - In an optimistic valuation scenario, the potential market value increase for Alibaba could reach nearly 200 billion yuan by 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The focus of the market has shifted from basic competition in subsidies and order volume to a comprehensive assessment of the long-term strategic determination and financial strength of companies like Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com as their financial results are released [1] Financial Performance - Alibaba's free cash flow has shown a significant net outflow due to substantial investments in high-tech areas like cloud services, with a reported free cash flow outflow in Q2 2025 [2] - Meituan's free cash flow is expected to turn into a net outflow as its food delivery business enters the traditional peak season in Q3 2025, potentially increasing subsidy amounts [2][3] Cash Reserves and Liquidity - As of mid-2025, Meituan has a total of approximately 189 billion RMB in cash and cash equivalents, indicating a strong liquidity position [2] - In extreme stress tests, Meituan's monetary assets can cover short-term debts of about 93.5 billion RMB, leaving a cash reserve of approximately 98.6 billion RMB [2][3] Future Cash Flow Projections - Meituan's EBITDA for the full year of 2025 is projected to be -4.5 billion RMB, with a significant outflow of free cash flow expected in the second half of 2025, exceeding 20 billion RMB [2][3] - If subsidies for food delivery and flash purchase businesses cease by the end of 2025, Meituan would still have sufficient cash reserves to manage large cash outflows during peak seasons [3] Competitive Landscape - Taobao Flash Purchase has announced a 50 billion RMB subsidy over the next 12 months, which could intensify competition with Meituan's core business [4] - If competition remains intense in 2026, Meituan may face cash outflows of 10 to 20 billion RMB, potentially reducing its cash reserves to between 50 and 70 billion RMB [4] Asset Structure Optimization - Meituan has shown signs of optimizing its asset structure, with long-term investments totaling 43.4 billion RMB as of mid-2025, down from 48.8 billion RMB at the end of 2024 [5][7] - The company has actively reduced long-term financial investments to increase cash reserves, indicating a strategic shift to support core business development [7] Investment Portfolio - Meituan holds significant stakes in companies like Li Auto and Maoyan Entertainment, with the potential for divesting from Li Auto to generate cash flow [9][10] - The fair value of Meituan's investment in Li Auto is estimated at around 22 billion RMB, indicating a potential floating profit of approximately 8 billion RMB [9][11] Market Impact - Any potential divestment from Li Auto could exert short-term pressure on its stock price, although the long-term value is expected to reflect its fundamentals [12]