证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2025 08 24 年 月 日 计算机 互金再迎全球政策加持 美联储降息概率提升，全球流动性有望迎来拐点。1）当地时间 22 日，鲍威尔指 出，美国劳动力市场与经济增长已出现显著放缓，7 月就业数据不及预期，劳动力 供需呈现"双降"局面。目前美联储面临两难，一方面通胀有抬头迹象，另一方面 劳动力市场面临下行的风险，分析认为，鲍威尔称两者的"风险平衡正在发生变 化"，是在暗示美联储关注的重心从"控制通胀"转向"保就业"。也就是说在通胀 存在上行风险的情况下，美联储仍"可能需要"降息，鲍威尔在谨慎地为 9 月降 息铺路。鲍威尔发表讲话后，芝商所"美联储观察工具"预计，市场对美联储 9 月 降息 25 个基点的概率从本周早些时候的 75%升至 84%。2）截至收盘，道指涨幅 为 1.89%；标普 500 指数涨 1.52%；纳指涨 1.88%。大型科技股集体上涨，英伟 达收涨 1.72%，Meta 涨幅超 2%，特斯拉股价涨超 6%。3）8 月 22 日，央行发 布公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，将于 8 月 25 日以固定数量、利率招标、 多重价位中标方式 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in new A-share account openings, with a year-on-year growth of 70.5% by July 2025, signaling a peak period for the capital market [9][10]. - The total scale of bank wealth management products reached 31.3 trillion yuan by the end of June, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.7%, indicating a recovery to pre-redemption levels [10]. - Leading internet financial platforms are expected to benefit from increased user engagement and regulatory support, with major apps like Tonghuashun, Dongfang Caifu, and Dazhihui maintaining high monthly active users [2][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Internet Finance Trends - The trend of residents moving their financial assets is accelerating, with internet finance leaders poised to share in the benefits [9]. - By mid-2025, the wealth management scale of state-owned and joint-stock banks reached 24.19 trillion yuan, accounting for over 80% of the market [10]. 2. Securities App Activity - The activity level of securities apps has become a core driver for attracting users, with Tonghuashun leading with an average of 32.46 million monthly active users in 2024 [2][16]. - Regulatory bodies are actively supporting the market, ensuring that there will not be a large-scale expansion of IPOs, which helps maintain market stability [19]. 3. Business Models of Leading Platforms - Major internet finance platforms are expanding their monetization strategies based on traffic and licensing barriers, with specific models outlined for each platform: - Tonghuashun focuses on AI investment robots and ETF guidance [20]. - Dongfang Caifu generates revenue through brokerage commissions and fund sales, with significant transaction volumes reported [23]. - Dazhihui is enhancing its service offerings with terminal information and quantitative systems [36]. - JiuFang ZhiTou is innovating with a stock learning machine that integrates hardware and AI [40]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on securities and IT companies such as Tonghuashun, Dazhihui, and Dongfang Caifu, as well as digital currency infrastructure and cross-border payment firms [4][41].