Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 40% increase in adjusted EBITDA year-to-date compared to the same period in 2024, with an adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 370 basis points [10][12] - Third quarter EBITDA improved by 28%, with a margin expansion of approximately 300 basis points [14] - Free cash flow in the quarter increased sequentially to $150 million, driven by strong growth in operating cash flow [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The packaging solutions business in North America grew EBITDA sequentially by 28%, reflecting the progress made with the 80/20 implementation [11] - In EMEA, adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $209 million, with a sequential margin expansion despite soft demand [28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American box industry shipments are now expected to decline approximately 1%-1.5% for the full year, down from an initial expectation of a 1%-1.5% increase [12] - EMEA box volume expectations have also been revised down to closer to 1% from an initial 2%-3% range [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a transformation plan to reinforce its leadership in sustainable packaging solutions, emphasizing cost initiatives and customer experience [5][6] - The strategy includes simplifying the organization by exiting select businesses and markets, with a focus on becoming exclusively a sustainable packaging business [6][8] - The company is implementing the Lighthouse model to improve operational efficiency and service levels across its North American box system and is beginning to roll it out in EMEA [7][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged challenging macro conditions in North America and EMEA but expressed confidence in the company's ability to control its destiny through a customer-centric approach [5][12] - The company expects continued EBITDA improvement in North America, building on strong first-half momentum, while also addressing market softness in EMEA [12][24] Other Important Information - The company plans to close the sale of GCF by year-end, pending regulatory approval, and intends to reinvest the proceeds into its Packaging Solutions businesses [13][18] - The company has adjusted its 2025 and 2027 targets due to market softness, now expecting $24 billion in net sales and adjusted EBITDA of $3 billion for 2025 [36] Q&A Session Summary Question: Differences in EMEA vs North America Opportunities - Management noted that EMEA does have excess box capacity and that the complexity in Europe differs from North America, where there was significant excess mill capacity [41][42] Question: Volume Growth Assumptions for 2027 Target - The company expects volume growth of 1%-1.5% in North America and 1%-2% in Europe over time, reflecting a soft market outlook [58][59] Question: EBITDA Benefit from Mill Closures - Management indicated that the closure of Savannah would have an effectively neutral EBITDA impact, while Riceboro's closure would provide modest positive benefits [88][92] Question: Free Cash Flow Movement - The decline in free cash flow guidance was primarily due to a slowdown in the market, with an expected $500 million profit loss impacting cash flow [66][68] Question: Drivers of Box Shipments Increase - The increase in box shipments in September and October was attributed to strategic customer engagement and a focus on attractive markets [73][76]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 40% increase in adjusted EBITDA year-to-date compared to the same period in 2024, with an adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 370 basis points [8][10] - Third quarter revenue showed slight sequential improvement, driven by strong price realization and stable volumes, with EBITDA improving by 28% and margin expanding by approximately 300 basis points [11][12] - Free cash flow increased sequentially to $150 million, primarily due to strong growth in operating cash flow, despite $60 million in direct cash costs related to transformation [12][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The packaging solutions business in North America grew EBITDA sequentially by 28%, reflecting the progress made with the 80/20 implementation [9][10] - In EMEA, adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $209 million, with price and mix contributing $13 million of improvement, although volume was lower than expected due to market softness [25][26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American box industry shipments are now expected to decline approximately 1 to 1.5% for the full year, down from an initial expectation of growth [10] - EMEA box volume expectations have also been revised down to approximately 1% from an earlier forecast of 2 to 3% [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a transformation plan to reinforce its leadership in sustainable packaging solutions, emphasizing cost initiatives and customer experience [4][5] - The strategy includes simplifying the organization by exiting select businesses and markets, with a commitment to exclusively operate as a sustainable packaging business [5][6] - The company is implementing the Lighthouse model to improve operational efficiency and service levels across its North American box system and is beginning to roll it out in EMEA [6][9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged challenging macro conditions in North America and EMEA but expressed confidence in the company's ability to control its destiny through a customer-centric approach [4][10] - The company expects continued EBITDA improvement in North America, building on strong first-half momentum, while also preparing for a challenging environment in EMEA [20][30] - Management adjusted targets for 2025 and 2027 due to market softness, with revised full-year 2025 targets set at $24 billion in net sales and adjusted EBITDA of $3 billion [32] Other Important Information - The company plans to close the sale of Global Cellulose Fibers by year-end, pending regulatory approval, and intends to reinvest proceeds into its Packaging Solutions businesses [14][15] - The company is taking aggressive cost-out actions in response to market challenges, including mill closures and outsourcing IT services [23][28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Differences in EMEA vs North America Opportunities - Management noted that EMEA has excess box capacity and a complex above-country structure that requires addressing, while North America had more straightforward opportunities to eliminate excess capacity [38][40] Question: Volume Growth Assumptions for 2027 Target - Management expects volume growth of 1 to 1.5% in North America and 1 to 2% in Europe over time, acknowledging the need to adjust targets due to market conditions [60] Question: EBITDA Benefits from Mill Closures - Management clarified that the closure of Savannah would have a neutral EBITDA impact, as it was primarily serving a low-value export market, while Riceboro's closure would provide modest positive benefits [95][103]

Core Insights - Amcor's share price has decreased by 17.0% since the beginning of 2025, while BHP's share price is 14.3% below its 52-week high, suggesting potential investment opportunities in both companies [1] - Amcor is a global leader in packaging solutions, operating over 200 sites in 40 countries, focusing on innovation and sustainability [2] - BHP Group, a diversified natural resources company, has a long-standing reputation as a reliable dividend-paying investment and is a significant player in the Australian market [3][5] Amcor (AMC) Overview - Amcor's debt/equity ratio for FY24 is reported at 187.0%, indicating a leveraged position with more debt than equity, which necessitates stable returns and sufficient cash flow to manage interest payments [7] - The company has delivered an average dividend yield of 4.4% per year over the last five years, appealing to income-focused investors [7] - Amcor's return on equity (ROE) for FY24 is 18.4%, exceeding the typical benchmark of 10% for mature businesses [8] BHP Group Overview - BHP's debt/equity ratio for FY24 stands at 45.3%, reflecting a stronger equity position compared to debt [8] - The company has achieved an average dividend yield of 6.9% per year since 2019, making it attractive for dividend-seeking investors [8] - BHP reported an ROE of 19.7% for FY24, indicating strong profitability relative to equity [8] Investment Considerations - Both Amcor and BHP are considered mature or blue-chip businesses, with metrics such as debt/equity ratio, average yield, and ROE being critical for evaluating their financial health and investment potential [6]