在2025年，俄罗斯在面对西方国家加大制裁力度的情况下，选择以大幅折扣的方式向中国供应石油和天然气。这看似是经济上的让步，实则隐藏着深远的战 略考量。西方国家通过层层封锁俄罗斯的能源出口渠道，意图削弱其财政收入，但俄罗斯则转向加深与中国的能源合作，这不仅使其能源出口得以持续，还 为俄罗斯在全球地缘政治中找到了一个可靠的支撑点。作为全球最大的能源进口国，中国在此过程中不仅获得了稳定的低价能源资源，还坚定地展示了对西 方单边制裁的反对态度。在严峻的制裁环境下，俄罗斯的石油出口面临着重重障碍。 2025年10月，美国对俄罗斯的两大石油公司实施了全面的金融隔离，这使得其国际结算渠道受到了严重阻碍，全球大多数买家纷纷避开与俄罗斯的交易。此 举导致俄罗斯的原油价格大幅下跌，降至每桶约59美元，远低于布伦特基准价格，这直接压缩了其出口收入。印度作为俄罗斯的传统买家，由于高额关税的 影响，减少了采购量，从每日180万桶降至110万桶，并转向使用本地货币进行结算，这使得俄罗斯的灵活性进一步受到限制。相比之下，中国继续以每桶比 市场价低7到8美元的价格购买俄罗斯的ESPO原油。 这种折扣机制在2025年得到了进一步扩大，折扣幅度 ...

Core Insights - The Arctic LNG 2 project in Russia has faced significant challenges due to U.S. sanctions, leading to no sales from its launch in December 2023 until August 2024 [1] - The project, operated by Novatek, was expected to produce 19.8 million tons annually, but sanctions have severely impacted its profitability [1] - In August 2024, Novatek began selling sanctioned cargoes at discounts of 30% to 40% to Chinese buyers, with prices dropping to between $28 million and $32 million per shipment [1] - The shift in energy exports from Europe to Asia, particularly China, has become a critical strategy for Russia amid ongoing sanctions [3] Group 1: U.S. Sanctions and Their Impact - U.S. sanctions on the Russian energy sector have intensified since the Ukraine conflict began in 2022, with significant measures announced in January 2025 [3] - Despite sanctions, Chinese buyers have continued to import LNG from the Arctic project, as they are not included in the U.S. sanctions list [3] - The sanctions have led to a slowdown in Russia's economic growth, with a projected growth rate of only 1.3% in 2024 [3] Group 2: Russia-China Energy Cooperation - The energy cooperation between Russia and China has strengthened, with both countries emphasizing that their relationship is not a military alliance [5] - During a meeting in November 2025, Russian President Putin and Chinese Premier Li Qiang discussed enhancing cooperation in investment, energy, and agriculture [5] - By 2024, 40% of Russia's natural gas exports were directed towards Asia, indicating a significant shift in export strategy [5] Group 3: Market Adjustments and Future Outlook - The Arctic LNG 2 project's modules were assembled in a Chinese shipyard, which has also faced U.S. sanctions, highlighting the ongoing energy trade dynamics among the U.S., China, and Russia [8] - Despite new sanctions from the UK in October 2025, the trade of Russian LNG appears to remain largely unaffected, leading to slight adjustments in the global LNG market [8] - The overall impact of sanctions has not completely stifled Russia's economic growth, with a projected growth rate of 1.8% in 2025 [5][7]