Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in Trump's tariff policy as of April 9, moving from comprehensive retaliatory tariffs on trade deficit countries to using tariffs as leverage in negotiations, particularly with economies outside of China. This shift has created an opportunity for "transshipment" to mitigate the impact of tariffs on exports [1][2]. Group 1: Export Dynamics - The export landscape in Q2 presents a duality; while high tariffs have brought China and the U.S. close to "untradeable" status, a 90-day tariff suspension provides a buffer for domestic exports [1][2]. - The cumulative new tariffs have reached 145%, with some Chinese goods facing tariffs as high as 245%, leading to a potential 14.6% year-on-year decline in Chinese exports if the U.S. market is lost [2][5]. - The container shipping rates from China to the U.S. East Coast have dropped to their lowest levels since 2020, indicating weakened export signals [2]. Group 2: Counteracting Forces - Two main counteracting forces are expected to support exports in Q2: the 90-day tariff suspension and a $100 billion list of tariff exemptions, which could collectively boost exports by approximately 5 percentage points [5][9]. - Demand for "transshipment" to the EU and ASEAN has already been reflected in March data, with exports to these regions exceeding seasonal levels by 9.7% and 8.9% respectively [5][9]. - The U.S. importers are showing signs of preemptive stocking due to tariff concerns, as evidenced by a record high in container imports at the Port of Los Angeles [7]. Group 3: Tariff Exemptions - The recent tariff exemptions, particularly those affecting around $100 billion worth of products, are expected to increase overall exports by 2.8 percentage points in Q2 [9][12]. - The exemption list includes several electronic products, which may facilitate "transshipment" and is already reflected in the export trends from South Korea [12].