宏 观 研 究 "反脆弱"系列 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 08 月 17 日 出口会否持续"超预期"？ ——"反脆弱"系列专题之十三 ⚫ 抽丝剥茧：谁在拉动出口？对新兴国家出口生产资料、对非美发达国家出口消费品 一级分类（国别+商品）：国别中对新兴出口表现较好，商品中生产资料出口表现较好。2 上半年我国出口整体稳中有增；国别结构上，对新兴经济体出口（东盟印度、非洲、中东） 为核心增长引擎，非美发达国家出口（欧盟与英国）也提供适度支撑。具体商品中，电子 设备与零部件、机械制造、部分消费品（玩具、手机、珠宝首饰等）出口表现较好。 二级分类（国别╳商品）：对新兴国家出口改善主要集中于生产资料，消费品出口走弱。 上半年我国对新兴国家出口累计同比上升 1.5pct 至 9.6%。其中，中间品拉动整体增速 2.4 个百分点，资本品拉动 1.0 个百分点，而消费品则拖累整体增速 3.7 个百分点。其中，锂 电池、矿物与金属、化学品、电气设备和机械设备等出口表现较好。 二级分类（国别╳商品）：对非美发达国家改善主要集中于消费品。上半年我国对非美发 达国家出口同比较去年底大幅上升 5.5pc ...

Export Data Insights - In July 2025, China's exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, up from 5.9% in June[7] - The trade surplus reached $98.24 billion, an increase of $12.765 billion compared to the same month last year[7] - Exports to the EU and ASEAN remained strong, while exports to the US saw a significant decline of 21.67%[7] Import Data Insights - Imports rose by 4.1% year-on-year in July, compared to 1.1% in June, with a month-on-month increase of 6.2%[7] - Major commodities like copper and its products showed strong import growth, benefiting from the renewable energy sector[6] - Traditional demand indicators like iron ore and steel continued to experience negative growth[6] Market Trends and Risks - The rebound in export growth is attributed to "export rush" ahead of tariff exemptions and fiscal expansion in Europe[7] - Future export growth may face challenges due to potential policy implementation delays and uncertainties in US-China trade relations[6] - The manufacturing PMIs for the US, Japan, and the Eurozone are below the growth threshold, indicating a cooling global economy[7]

Group 1: Trade Data Overview - In July 2025, exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, up from 5.9% in June, while imports rose by 4.1%, compared to 1.1% previously[2] - The trade surplus reached $98.24 billion, an increase of $12.765 billion compared to the same month last year[2] - The rebound in export growth was primarily supported by the EU, ASEAN, and other regions, despite a decline in direct exports to the US[2] Group 2: Export Dynamics - The July export growth exceeded expectations, rising 1.3 percentage points from June and surpassing the Wind consensus forecast of 5.79%[2] - The month-on-month export change was -1.0%, slightly below the four-year average of -0.4%[2] - Factors contributing to the export surge included "rush exports" ahead of the August 1 tariff exemptions and a 40% export tariff on transshipments[2] Group 3: Regional Export Performance - Exports to the EU rose by 1.65 percentage points to 9.24% year-on-year in July, while exports to the US, ASEAN, and Japan saw declines[2] - The decline in exports to the US was significant, dropping 5.54 percentage points to -21.67%[2] - Other regions showed a notable increase in export growth, rising from 7.78% to 12.56% year-on-year[2] Group 4: Import Trends - July imports increased by 6.2% month-on-month, outperforming the four-year average of -1.24%[2] - Key commodities like copper and related products saw strong import growth, while traditional demand indicators like iron ore and steel remained in negative growth[2] - Integrated circuits maintained double-digit growth, likely influenced by easing US-China trade relations[2] Group 5: Risks and Outlook - Potential risks include domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations and ongoing uncertainties in US-China trade relations[2] - The overall outlook suggests a possibility of export growth slowing down, but the decline may be gradual due to various supportive factors[2]

Funding Sources - Incremental funds since late April have been driven by margin financing and insurance contributions, with significant structural inflows observed since late June[1] - Northbound funds have fluctuated around a market value of CNY 2.3 trillion, with trading activity declining to approximately 6% recently, close to levels seen in early April[1] - Margin financing balance has accelerated since late June, reaching CNY 1.94 trillion by July 24, nearing the historical high of CNY 1.95 trillion from March 2025[1] Market Trends - Market style has shifted from a "barbell" structure to a broader sector expansion, with small-cap stocks showing a steeper upward trend compared to mid and large-cap stocks since mid-July[2] - The average repeat rate of leading concepts from April 7 to July 25 has remained around 16%, indicating a lack of sustained momentum in market hotspots, with rapid rotation of themes occurring every 2 to 3 trading days[2] - Overall market sentiment has improved, with increased trading volume and a more optimistic outlook for the third quarter, despite potential limitations in economic growth compared to the second quarter[2] Sector Selection Strategy - Recommended sectors for investment include those likely to benefit from upcoming policies, such as photovoltaic, coal, and chemical industries, as well as technology sectors like robotics that have shown weaker prior performance[2] - Sectors that have not yet experienced significant upward movement, such as alcoholic beverages, service consumption, and real estate development, are also suggested for balanced investment strategies[2] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include delays in policy implementation, crowded funding risks as margin financing approaches previous highs, and discrepancies between estimated and actual fund positions[2]

GDP Performance - In Q2, China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, while nominal GDP growth was only 3.9%, indicating a mismatch between supply and demand[3] - The deflator index further expanded to -1.3%, highlighting weak price levels[3] Production Insights - Industrial value-added growth was 6.8% in June, with a Q2 average of 6.4%, driven by strong exports[14] - The service sector maintained stable growth, with a cumulative production index increase of 5.9%[14] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 2.8% in Q2, down 1.4 percentage points from Q1[22] - Infrastructure investment growth was 8.9%, while real estate investment saw a significant decline of -12.9% in June, with a cumulative decline of -11.2%[24] Consumption Patterns - Retail sales grew by 4.6% year-on-year in Q2, a decrease from Q1, with durable goods consumption supported by "old-for-new" policies[39] - Restaurant consumption weakened significantly, with June's growth plummeting to 0.9%[39] Outlook and Policy Recommendations - To meet the annual GDP target of 5%, a growth rate of at least 4.7% is required in the second half of the year[42] - Continued policy support is essential to boost domestic demand, particularly in real estate and manufacturing sectors[42] Risk Factors - Potential risks include domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations and unexpected changes in overseas policies[43]

Group 1: Export Performance - June export growth rate was 5.9%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, exceeding the Wind consensus forecast by 2.7 percentage points[3] - Cumulative export growth for the first half of the year was 5.9%, slightly higher than last year's full-year growth of 5.8%[3] - Trade surplus for the first half of the year reached $585.95 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34.52%, surpassing last year's growth of 20.7%[3] Group 2: Regional Export Trends - Exports to the U.S. decreased by 16.1%, but the decline narrowed by 18.4 percentage points from the previous month, with U.S. exports accounting for 12% of total exports[4] - Exports to ASEAN countries maintained high growth at 16.9%, with Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines showing growth rates of 23.8%, 27.9%, and 10.2% respectively[4] - Exports to the EU grew by 7.6%, down 4.4 percentage points from the previous month, with Germany's export growth slowing to 3.5%[4] Group 3: Product-Specific Insights - Labor-intensive product exports showed improvement, with declines narrowing to -7.1% for bags, -1.6% for textiles, and -4.0% for footwear[5] - Mechanical and high-tech product exports grew by 8.2% and 6.9% respectively, with integrated circuits, automobiles, and ships showing high growth rates of 24.2%, 23.1%, and 23.6%[5] - The contribution of mechanical products to export growth was 4.8 percentage points, while high-tech products contributed 1.6 percentage points[5] Group 4: Import Trends - Import growth returned to positive territory at 1.1%, a significant rebound of 4.5 percentage points from the previous month[6] - Mechanical and high-tech products were the main drivers of import growth, with rates of 6.4% and 10.0% respectively[6] - Energy product imports faced declines, with coal, crude oil, and natural gas showing decreases of -44.7%, -15.0%, and -5.9% respectively due to falling prices[6] Group 5: Future Outlook - Short-term export resilience is expected to continue, supported by tariff exemptions and ongoing "export grabbing" strategies[7] - However, medium to long-term pressures may build due to the expiration of tariff exemptions and potential demand exhaustion[7] - Risks include unexpected changes in overseas policies and slower-than-expected economic recovery abroad[8]

Group 1: Export Performance - June exports showed a slight year-on-year increase of 5.8%, up from 4.8%, exceeding market expectations of 3.2%[4] - Direct "export grabbing" to the U.S. was a major driver in June, with exports to the U.S. seeing a reduced year-on-year decline of -16.1%, compared to -34.5% previously[4] - Consumer goods exports to the U.S. rebounded significantly, as over 45% of U.S. imports from China are consumer products[4] Group 2: Future Outlook - The "export grabbing" effect is nearing its end, leading to potential increased pressure on exports in the second half of the year[4] - Indirect trade through regions like South Korea and Latin America has begun to cool, with June's year-on-year export growth to these regions at -6.7% and -2.1% respectively[4] - The expiration of tariff exemptions on July 9 is expected to further impact export growth rates for intermediate goods[4] Group 3: Sector Insights - High-tech sectors are likely to maintain growth despite challenges, with June exports of automobiles and ships showing year-on-year increases of 8.2% and 18.6% respectively[4] - The ongoing tight supply chain connections between China, Japan, and South Korea indicate strong foreign investment in "export grabbing" activities[4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent economic data in China, highlighting the growth in consumer spending supported by policies like "trade-in for new" and the stabilization of the real estate market. It raises questions about sustaining this growth amid potential pressures from declining export growth and real estate price fluctuations. Group 1: Consumer Spending - In May, China's total retail sales reached 41,326 billion yuan, growing by 6.4% year-on-year, with accelerated growth in consumer goods, particularly in home appliances and mobile phones, driven by the "trade-in for new" policy [1][3] - The "trade-in for new" policy has significantly supported consumption, contributing 1.3 percentage points to the retail sales growth in the first five months of the year [4] - The internal growth momentum for consumer spending has improved due to a decrease in unemployment rates and an increase in disposable income [4][5] Group 2: Economic Growth Forecast - The GDP growth rate for the second quarter is expected to be around 5.3%-5.4%, with retail sales growth also projected at approximately 5.4% [6] - However, there are concerns that internal consumption growth may face pressures from declining export growth and fluctuations in real estate prices in the second half of the year [6] Group 3: Export and Trade - China's total import and export value in the first five months was 17.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5%. Exports to ASEAN and the EU increased, while exports to the US declined [8] - The diversification of export destinations has effectively mitigated geopolitical risks, with ASEAN becoming China's largest export market [8][9] Group 4: Real Estate Market - The real estate market is still in an adjustment phase, with new housing sales showing significant variation across cities. First-tier cities have shown resilience, while second-hand housing prices continue to decline [12][15] - Policies aimed at increasing the supply of quality housing are seen as crucial for stabilizing the real estate market, with expectations for further relaxation of restrictive policies in major cities [15]

Export Performance - In May, export growth was 4.8%, down 3.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in momentum[3] - Cumulative export growth for May was 6.0%, higher than the annual growth rate from last year, suggesting continued resilience[3] - Exports to the US fell sharply by 34.5%, a decline of 13.5 percentage points compared to the previous month[4] Regional Export Trends - Exports to the EU increased by 12.0%, up 3.7 percentage points from the previous month, with Germany contributing a growth rate of 21.5%[4] - Exports to Canada rose by 20.3%, indicating a continuation of transshipment trade[4] - ASEAN exports showed resilience with a contribution of 2.5 percentage points to overall export growth, accounting for 52.6% of the total[4] Product-Specific Insights - Labor-intensive products like bags, textiles, and footwear saw declines in export growth rates of -10.3%, -2.0%, and -5.6% respectively, dragging down overall export growth by 0.3 percentage points[5] - High-tech products, particularly integrated circuits, saw a significant increase in export growth of 33.4%[5] - Automotive exports improved significantly with a growth rate of 13.7%, up 9.3 percentage points from the previous month[5] Import Trends - Import growth fell by 3.4%, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to declining prices of bulk commodities like coal and crude oil[7] - Agricultural imports showed recovery with a growth rate of 0.7%, up 17.96 percentage points from the previous month, driven by soybeans and grains[7] Future Outlook - Export resilience is expected to continue in the short term, supported by adjustments in shipping capacity to the US and sustained demand from ASEAN[8] - However, potential pressures on exports are anticipated in the second half of the year due to changes in US tariff policies and the expiration of exemptions on certain goods[8]

Trade Data Overview - In May, China's exports amounted to a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, below the expected 6.2% and previous value of 8.1%[3] - Imports decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, significantly lower than the expected increase of 0.3%[8] Trade Slowdown Signals - The slowdown in trade is indicated by three main factors: 1. Preceding demand from the U.S. led to a front-loading of imports, which has since declined significantly since May[4] 2. The weakening of demand from the U.S. has reduced the support from ASEAN and Latin America for Chinese exports, with a marginal decline of 2.4 percentage points in export growth to these regions[6] 3. The negative year-on-year change in imports reflects the need for domestic demand recovery, which remains insufficient[5] U.S.-China Trade Dynamics - China's exports to the U.S. saw a further decline of 34.5% year-on-year, contrasting sharply with rising container shipping rates, indicating a lag in the impact of tariff adjustments[5] - The tariff "de-escalation" effects on U.S.-China trade have not yet fully manifested in May's data, suggesting potential improvements in June[5] Sector-Specific Insights - The export growth of mechanical and high-tech products has been consistently slowing, with integrated circuits benefiting from tariff exemptions[6] - The overall structure of exports is becoming increasingly differentiated, with significant variations in performance across different product categories[18] Domestic Demand and Import Trends - Domestic demand remains weak, as reflected in the CPI data, which shows a further drag from consumer goods compared to April[21] - The decline in imports is indicative of the ongoing challenges in domestic consumption recovery, with May's import figures falling short of expectations[8]