卓越“元语宙”

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卓越教育集团(03978):K12素质教育转型标杆,深耕华南行稳致远
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-04 09:58
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time [5]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a benchmark for K12 quality education transformation, focusing on the South China market and achieving steady growth [1][13]. - The company has completed its K9 transformation post "double reduction" policy, with a projected revenue of 1.102 billion RMB in 2024, representing a 125% increase [1][24]. - The company benefits from a comprehensive licensing system and local reputation, with a significant market share in Guangzhou [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in K12 extracurricular education services in South China, with a focus on quality education and a diversified business model [13]. - It has established a strong brand presence and operational experience over 20 years, adapting to regulatory changes and market demands [13][22]. Revenue Structure - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 1.102 billion RMB, with the revenue breakdown being 64.8% from quality education, 18.8% from full-time review, and 16.4% from tutoring projects [26][29]. - The quality education segment saw a remarkable growth of 411.7%, driven by innovative course offerings [29][30]. Growth Drivers - High retention rates support enrollment growth, with a projected retention rate of 91% for the spring of 2025 [2][3]. - There is significant potential for expansion in surrounding areas of Guangzhou, with plans to open new outlets [2][3]. - The introduction of programming courses aligns with the growing demand for AI education, potentially creating new revenue streams [2][3]. Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts revenues of 1.974 billion RMB in 2025, with a net profit of 329 million RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 79.1% and 70.8% respectively [4][24]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 0.23 RMB in 2024 to 0.39 RMB in 2025 [4][24]. Investment Recommendations - The company is positioned to benefit from the rigid demand in the K12 education sector, with a focus on regional deepening strategies and shareholder returns [3][4]. - The report suggests a valuation correction is likely due to the company's strong local reputation and licensing advantages, with a target market capitalization of 5.37 to 5.73 billion HKD [3][4].