Core Viewpoint - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset has increased due to multiple factors, including the U.S. government shutdown and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a significant rise in gold prices and ETF inflows [4][5][6]. Group 1: Gold ETF Performance - As of October 14, 2025, the gold ETF fund (159937) has risen by 2.35%, with a latest price of 9.05 yuan [3]. - Over the past two weeks, the gold ETF fund has accumulated a rise of 7.27% [3]. - The fund's latest share count reached 3.816 billion, marking a new high in nearly a month [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - On October 13, gold prices surged past the $4,100 mark, achieving the largest single-day increase in five months, with COMEX gold futures rising by 3.24% to $4,130 per ounce [4]. - The average daily trading volume for the gold ETF fund over the past month was 1.1 billion yuan, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [4]. - The market is experiencing heightened risk aversion due to the U.S. government shutdown and increased macroeconomic uncertainties, which are expected to continue driving gold prices upward [4]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Expectations - There is a 96% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and an 87% probability in December, reinforcing expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4]. - The recent volatility in U.S. economic data has strengthened market bets on earlier interest rate cuts, supporting upward momentum for gold prices [5]. - The dual drivers of risk aversion and shifting monetary policy are expected to create new upward space for gold prices following the technical breakthrough above $4,100 [5].