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原油 2510 期货合约
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宝城期货原油早报-20250826
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 03:13
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 is expected to run strongly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of oscillation with a stronger bias [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Time Cycle and View - For the crude oil 2510 contract, the short - term (within one week) and medium - term (two weeks to one month) views are both oscillation, and the intraday view is oscillation with a stronger bias, with a general reference view of strong operation [1] 3.2 Core Logic - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a record supply surplus in the global crude oil market next year due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, even with an upward adjustment of the global crude oil demand for this year and next year, but the demand growth rate has declined. Crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract maintained an oscillation - with - stronger - bias trend in the overnight session on Monday, rising 1.16% to 499.2 yuan/barrel. It is expected to maintain this trend on Tuesday [5] 3.3 Price Calculation and Fluctuation Definition - For varieties with night trading, calculate the price change from the night - trading closing price to the day - trading closing price; for varieties without night trading, calculate from the previous day's closing price to the day - trading closing price [2] - A decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, 0 - 1% a weak oscillation, a rise of 0 - 1% a strong oscillation, and a rise of more than 1% an increase. The concept of strong/weak oscillation only applies to the intraday view, not the short - term and medium - term views [3][4]