投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-08-26 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，原油震荡偏强 | 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期国际能源署（IEA）发布能源展望报告，由于需求增长缓慢且供应激增，在 OPEC+产 油国扩增产量的背景下，预计明年全球原油市场将面临创纪录供应过剩局面。虽然 IEA 同步上调了 今明两年的全球原油需求数据，但需求增速有所下滑，甚至不到 2023 年的一半。由此导致原油库存 将以 296 万桶日的速度累积，甚至超过 2020 年疫情期间的平均累积速度。随着美联储降息预期升温， 在偏多氛围支撑下，本周一夜盘国内原油期货 2510 合约维持震荡偏强的走势，期价小幅收涨 1 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-26原油早报 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2510： 1.基本面：乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，他计划与美国特使凯洛格讨论与俄罗斯总统普京可能的会晤的 准备工作；匈牙利油气集团MOL表示，如果没有德鲁日巴管道供应，中欧可能在短期内面临燃料短 缺，可能导致燃料价格上涨，匈牙利和斯洛伐克周五表示，在乌克兰最近袭击俄罗斯的一处设施后， 通过德鲁日巴管道的石油供应可能会暂停至少五天；中性 2.基差：8月25日，阿曼原油现货价为70.11美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为69.57美元/桶，基差 28.65元/桶，现货平水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至8月15日当周API原油 ...

智通财经APP获悉，由于美国总统特朗普打击俄罗斯原油供应，再加上市场预期今年晚些时候将出现原 油供应过剩，全球基准布伦特原油的交易价格正罕见地低于中东原油价格。数据显示，布伦特原油期货 价格较迪拜原油低3美分/桶，为4月以来首次出现这样的情况。 交易员预计，未来几个月市场将被大量原油充斥。OPEC+成员国和非成员国都在增加原油产量，这对 布伦特期货造成压力，同时也削弱了时间价差这一衡量市场健康状况的指标。与此同时，对中东原油品 种的需求得到了短暂提振，原因是印度炼油商的一波抢购潮，而这波买盘与特朗普因印度购买俄罗斯原 油对前者施加的压力有关。 ...

随着特朗普打击俄罗斯原油供应，以及预计今年晚些时候将出现供应过剩，全球原油基准布伦特原油的 交易价格罕见低于中东原油价格。布伦特原油 期货相对迪拜原油价格每桶折价3美分，这是自今年4月 以来这一差价首次变为负值。作为亚洲原油供应的主要来源，波斯湾生产的大多数原油价格都以迪拜原 油为基准定价。交易员预计未来几个月原油市场过剩，因为欧佩克+联盟和非成员国都增加了产量，这 给布伦特原油期货带来了压力，也削弱了时间价差——市场健康状况的晴雨表。与此同时，由于特朗普 威胁印度购买俄罗斯原油，印度炼油商的短暂抢购提振了对中东品级原油的需求。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency and the U.S. Energy Information Administration have lowered their forecasts for international oil prices for the next two years due to expectations of oversupply in the oil market, leading to a decline in both domestic and international crude oil futures prices [1][2] Group 1: Geopolitical Factors - The recent meeting between U.S. and Russian leaders in Alaska did not yield any agreements but was deemed constructive, indicating a potential de-escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has contributed to a reduction in international crude oil price premiums [2] - Despite significant differences remaining between the U.S. and Russia regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation, there is a growing optimism that the conflict may cool down, impacting oil market dynamics [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - There is a notable oversupply in the Asian low-sulfur fuel oil market since late July, while high-sulfur fuel oil prices have dropped to a near three-year low due to ample supply and weak downstream demand [3] - The influx of fuel oil arbitrage cargoes into the Asian market has contributed to a stable spot price differential for fuel oil, although trading activity remains weak with significant discrepancies in pricing between buyers and sellers [3] Group 3: Downstream Market Behavior - The shipping, power generation, and refining sectors are the primary consumers of fuel oil, with shipping fuel consumption being the largest segment. Recent data shows a decrease in wholesale outflow of marine heavy oil, attributed to weak domestic market demand and cautious procurement by downstream enterprises [4] - Overall, the expectation of a cooling Russia-Ukraine conflict, combined with a shrinking premium in the international crude oil market and rising oversupply expectations, suggests that the price focus for crude oil may shift downward, further weakening the cost support for fuel oil [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The international crude oil market is expected to face a record supply surplus next year due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, even with an upward adjustment of global crude oil demand data for this year and next by the IEA, the demand growth rate has declined [5]. - As the Russia - Ukraine conflict is expected to end, the geopolitical premium is being reversed, and domestic and international crude oil futures prices showed a weak trend on the night of last Friday. The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract is expected to maintain a weak - oscillating trend on Monday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - Cycle Views - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2510 is oscillating [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2510 is oscillating, and the medium - term view of domestic crude oil (SC) is also oscillating [1][5]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2510 is weakly oscillating, and the intraday view of domestic crude oil (SC) is also weakly oscillating [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - The IEA's energy outlook report indicates that due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, and OPEC+ increasing production, the global crude oil market will face a record supply surplus next year. The demand growth rate has declined, and crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic [5]. - With the expected end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium is being reversed, leading to a weak trend in crude oil futures prices [1][5]. 3.3 Price Performance - The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract slightly rose 0.98% to 484.1 yuan per barrel [5].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the petrochemical industry, particularly for polyester and refining companies, suggesting potential investment opportunities in leading firms such as Tongkun Co. and Hengli Petrochemical [17][18]. Core Insights - The EIA forecasts a global crude oil supply surplus of 1.64 million barrels per day for the current year, with adjustments made to oil and natural gas price predictions [4][15]. - The IEA and OPEC have both revised their global oil demand growth estimates for 2025 and 2026, with IEA projecting increases of 680,000 and 700,000 barrels per day respectively, while OPEC expects increases of 1.29 million and 1.38 million barrels per day [8][44]. - The report highlights a recovery in the drilling day rates for offshore rigs, indicating a positive trend in the oil service sector [22][37]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand - EIA expects global oil and liquid fuel consumption to rise by 980,000 barrels per day in 2025, reaching 103.7 million barrels per day, and by 1.19 million barrels per day in 2026 [46]. - Global oil supply is projected to increase by 2.28 million barrels per day in 2025, with OPEC+ contributing approximately 610,000 barrels per day to this growth [12][46]. Price Predictions - EIA has adjusted its forecast for 2025 average crude oil prices to $67 per barrel, down by $2 from previous estimates, and $51 per barrel for 2026, down by $7 [4][47]. - The report notes a decline in refining margins, with Singapore's refining margin dropping to $15.07 per barrel [51]. Industry Performance - The report emphasizes the recovery potential in the polyester sector, with expectations of improved profitability as supply and demand dynamics stabilize [17]. - Key companies in the refining sector, such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, are highlighted as having favorable competitive positions due to lower operational costs and market conditions [17][18].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Polyester Sector Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Zhang Weiwei [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Views - Short - term: The supply - demand fundamentals have slightly improved, but the overall driving force is still limited; the market will follow the crude oil price fluctuations in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the risk of price reversals [25] - Medium - to long - term: The polyester sector as a whole will continue to fluctuate in the low - level range, waiting for the demand to pick up [26] Group 4: Macro and Crude Oil News - IEA expects that this year's global crude oil supply surplus will exceed previous expectations, with supply growth more than three times the demand growth rate. Global crude oil supply will increase by 2.5 million barrels per day this year and 1.9 million barrels per day next year [4] - The US - Russia presidential meeting is scheduled for 03:30 am Beijing time on Saturday. Trump said there is a 25% probability that the meeting will be unsuccessful, and he will promote sanctions against Russia if the talks go poorly [4] - EIA predicts that US oil production will reach a record 13.41 million barrels per day in 2025, but production will decline in 2026 due to falling oil prices. Brent crude will average $51 per barrel next year, lower than last month's forecast [4] - OPEC raises the forecast of global oil demand for next year and lowers the forecast of supply growth from non - OPEC+ countries, indicating a tighter market outlook. Global oil demand will grow by 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026, an upward revision of 100,000 barrels per day [4] - As of the week ending August 8, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 800,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 714,000 barrels [4] - Traders fully price in a 25 - basis - point Fed rate cut in September. The probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged in September is 0%, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 94.3%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 5.7% [5] Group 5: Futures and Spot Prices - WTI crude oil continuous increased by 0.22% week - on - week, while the price of naphtha remained unchanged [7] - PX511 decreased by 1.61% week - on - week, and PX CFR: Taiwan Province decreased by 1.88% [7] - TA601 decreased by 1.27% week - on - week, and PTA spot benchmark price decreased by 0.83% [7] - EG509 decreased by 0.66% week - on - week, and the mainstream price of ethylene glycol in East China decreased by 0.22% [7] - PF510 decreased by 0.84% week - on - week, and the mainstream price of polyester staple fiber in East China decreased by 0.62% [7] - PR511 decreased by 0.84% week - on - week, and the mainstream price of polyester bottle chips in East China decreased by 0.84% [7] - PX basis decreased by 11.83% week - on - week, PTA basis decreased by 51.22%, ethylene glycol basis increased by 24.05%, short - fiber basis increased by 14.29%, and polyester bottle - chip basis remained unchanged [7] Group 6: Supply Analysis - PX: Weilian Chemical's 1 - million - ton device restarted, and some devices are under maintenance. As of August 15, the domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 82.67%, and the weekly output is 693,300 tons. Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 72.03%. Next week, PX weekly output is expected to increase slightly [11] - PTA: Hailun Petrochemical was put into production this week, and some devices restarted. As of August 15, the domestic PTA weekly capacity utilization rate is 75.01%, and the weekly output is 1.3841 million tons. PTA continued to destock this week. Next week, domestic supply is expected to increase [12] - Ethylene glycol: Domestic ethylene glycol supply decreased slightly this week. As of August 15, the domestic weekly average capacity utilization rate is 61.10%. Port inventory increased this week. Next week, total supply is expected to increase, and ports may continue to accumulate inventory [13] Group 7: Demand Analysis - Polyester end: The weekly average polyester operating rate is 86.35%, a 0.14 - percentage - point increase from the previous week [14] - Polyester inventory: Polyester filament and staple fiber destocked this week [17] - Terminal: As of August 15, the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 58.07%, an increase of 2.29 percentage points. The order days of Chinese weaving sample enterprises are 8.34 days, an increase of 1.50 days, and the坯布 inventory days are 29.96 days, a decrease of 1.03 days [23] Group 8: Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: The supply - demand fundamentals have slightly improved, but the overall driving force is still limited; follow the crude oil price fluctuations in the short - term and beware of price reversals [25] - Medium - to long - term: The polyester sector as a whole will continue to fluctuate in the low - level range, waiting for the demand to pick up [26] - Next week's focus: US - Russia meeting, US tariff policy, macro - market sentiment, EIA weekly inventory data, and the operation of upstream and downstream devices [26]

原油周度报告 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 中航期货 2025-08-15 报告PA摘R要T 01 （1）美俄总统将于8月15日在美国阿拉斯加州安克雷奇会晤。 （2）美国7月份CPI低于市场预期，美联储9月份降息预期升温。 （3）三大能源机构发布最新能源展望，IEA维持悲观预期。 市场焦点 重点数据 （1）美国至8月8日当周EIA原油库存 303.6万桶，预期-27.5万桶，前值-302.9万桶。 （2）美国至8月8日当周EIA俄克拉荷马州库欣原油库存 4.5万桶，前值45.3万桶。 （3）美国至8月8日当周EIA战略石油储备库存 22.6万桶，前值23.5万桶。 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 数据分析 05 后市研判 主要观点 本周原油价格延续偏弱的走势，整体呈现震荡偏弱的态势，一方面市场静待美俄总统会晤的结果，美国可能放松 对俄罗斯的制裁换取双方达成协议，市场预期若放松对俄罗斯能源领域的制裁，将强化全球原油供应过剩的预期，另 外一方面美国API及EIA原油库存超预期累库，三季度消费旺季存在消退的迹象，在四季度原油供应逐步增加的背景下， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic energy and chemical commodity sector showed a volatile downward trend. The weakening of the crude oil futures on the cost side, influenced by the bearish content of the energy report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA), led to an expected record - high supply glut in the global crude oil market next year. Although the IEA raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate declined, less than half of that in 2023. As a result, crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic. The weakening of the oil price center dragged down the cost support of the energy and chemical sector, causing prices to decline. - Most energy and chemical commodities saw inventory accumulation this week. Futures inventories of fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, polypropylene, plastics, and PVC increased slightly, while those of asphalt and styrene decreased slightly. Overall, the industrial data of the energy and chemical sector was weak this week, with intensified supply - demand contradictions. Coupled with the weakening of the crude oil cost side, the price center of the entire sector moved downward [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Energy and Chemical Sector Overall Situation - The energy and chemical sector showed a volatile downward trend this week due to the weakening of the crude oil cost side and inventory changes in most commodities [4]. Data Charts of Partial Varieties - **Rubber**: Included charts of rubber basis, 9 - 1 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao Free Trade Zone rubber inventory, all - steel tire开工率trend, and semi - steel tire开工率trend [6][7][9][11][14][16]. - **Methanol**: Had charts of methanol basis, 9 - 1 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefins开工率change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [19][21][22][24][26][29]. - **Crude Oil**: Featured charts of crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery开工率, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [30][32][34][36][38][40]. - **Fuel Oil**: Contained charts of domestic high - sulfur fuel oil basis, high - sulfur fuel oil month spread, domestic fuel oil production from 2016 - 2025, Singapore fuel oil inventory from 2020 - 2025, global main shipping index from 2022 - 2025, and Shanghai Futures Exchange high - sulfur fuel oil futures inventory [45][46][48][50][53][55]. - **Asphalt**: Had charts of domestic asphalt basis from 2020 - 2025, asphalt month spread, domestic asphalt production from 2016 - 2025, domestic refinery asphalt unit开工率from 2016 - 2025, China's asphalt import volume from 2020 - 2025, and Shanghai Futures Exchange asphalt weekly inventory from 2016 - 2025 [59][60][62][64][65][67]. - **PTA**: Included charts of domestic PTA basis from 2020 - 2025, PTA futures 9 - 1 month spread from 2020 - 2025, domestic PTA unit开工率from 2020 - 2025, domestic PTA weekly production from 2016 - 2025, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange PTA warehouse receipts from 2016 - 2025, and PTA enterprise weekly inventory from 2020 - 2025 [69][71][73][75][77][79]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Had charts of ethylene glycol basis, 9 - 1 month spread, domestic ethylene glycol开工率from 2021 - 2025, domestic ethylene glycol weekly production from 2021 - 2025, polyester industry chain开工率from 2018 - 2025, and East China ethylene glycol inventory from 2018 - 2025 [82][83][85][86][88][90]. - **Styrene**: Contained charts of styrene basis from 2020 - 2025, styrene 9 - 1 month spread from 2021 - 2025, domestic styrene开工率from 2016 - 2025, domestic styrene factory inventory from 2020 - 2025, and East + South China port styrene inventory from 2020 - 2025 [95][96][98][100][103]. - **Plastic**: Had charts of LLDPE basis, LLDPE 9 - 1 month spread from 2019 - 2025, domestic PE and LLDPE monthly production from 2019 - 2025, Dalian Commodity Exchange plastic warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025, domestic polyethylene import volume from 2018 - 2025, and domestic plastic products from 2016 - 2025 [109]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: Included charts of polypropylene basis, polypropylene 9 - 1 month spread, Taiwan polypropylene production from 2010 - 2025, domestic polypropylene downstream开工率from 2016 - 2025, domestic polypropylene warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025, and domestic PP import volume from 2016 - 2025 [111][112][114][116][117][118]. - **PVC**: Had charts of domestic PVC basis from 2019 - 2025, domestic PVC 9 - 1 month spread from 2019 - 2025, ethylene production from 2016 - 2025, domestic PVC import volume from 2018 - 2025, Dalian Commodity Exchange PVC warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025, and cumulative values of housing completion and sales area from 2018 - 2025 [121][123][125][129][131][133].