Summary of Yongxing Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - Yongxing Co., Ltd. operates in the waste incineration industry, primarily based in Guangzhou, with over 20 years of operational experience. The company controls 14 incineration projects with a total capacity of 32,000 tons per day and 4 biomass treatment projects with a designed capacity of 2,600 tons per day. In January 2025, the company plans to increase its stake in a solid waste treatment project to 50% to strengthen its industry position [4][8]. Core Business Logic - The core logic for Yongxing's sustained value growth and cash flow enhancement lies in its significant resource advantages and ample capital expenditure. The company's capacity utilization rate is approximately 70% in 2023, indicating substantial growth potential. The company does not rely on government subsidies but aims to enhance its valuation through improved asset quality, profitability, and cash flow. In 2023, free cash flow turned positive, with a commitment to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 60% [3][4]. Financial Performance - From 2019 to 2023, Yongxing achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% in revenue and 55% in net profit. Although recent growth has slowed due to all projects entering the operational phase, long-term growth potential remains strong. The company expects to recognize over 100 million yuan in subsidy income once the Guangzhou Phase II project enters the national subsidy directory, indicating potential underestimation of profitability [4][9]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2023, Yongxing's revenue per ton was 417 yuan, and gross profit per ton was 190 yuan, both leading the industry. The weighted average return on equity (ROE) reached 9.3%. High profitability is attributed to elevated waste treatment fees and electricity income, along with efficient evaporation technology and Guangdong's benchmark coal-fired electricity price [4][15][16]. Capacity Utilization and Future Projections - The company anticipates an increase in capacity utilization from 71% in 2023 to 92% by 2026, with projected net profits of approximately 770 million, 910 million, and 1 billion yuan for 2024-2026, respectively. The company is expected to enjoy a higher price-to-earnings (PE) valuation due to its asset superiority [4][26]. Market Opportunities - Yongxing is actively engaging in the treatment of municipal and industrial waste, leveraging the substantial stock of municipal waste in Guangzhou (approximately 70 million tons) to fill capacity gaps. The company is also exploring partnerships with high-quality clients, such as data centers, to expand its energy supply and heating services [5][7][21]. Challenges and Risks - The company faces challenges such as depreciation pressure and potential impacts from changes in accounting policies. However, opportunities exist in expanding waste resources and enhancing heating services, which are expected to drive continued growth [10][11]. Cash Flow and Dividend Policy - Yongxing's cash flow structure is robust, with a healthy balance between waste treatment fees (36%), benchmark electricity prices (51%), and provincial subsidies (7%). The company has a low reliance on national subsidies compared to industry averages, enhancing cash flow security. The dividend payout ratio for 2023 was 64%, with a dividend yield exceeding 3% [12][19]. Geographic Advantages - Guangzhou's status as a population inflow area provides a stable and growing source of waste for Yongxing. The city's waste generation is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7% from 2025 to 2035, which will support increased capacity utilization [14][20]. Future Growth Directions - Yongxing plans to focus on expanding its waste processing capacity and improving heating services. The company is also exploring opportunities in solid waste management in various regions and has outlined plans for emergency landfill projects [21][22]. Valuation and Market Position - Yongxing's asset superiority allows it to command a premium in valuation. The company is expected to see its price-to-book (PB) ratio increase as capacity utilization and ROE improve. The current overall PE level is around 14 times, higher than the industry average of 12 times, with potential for further upward movement [26][27].