Core Viewpoint - The report from Cinda Securities highlights that Yongxing Co., Ltd. has a high dividend yield that creates a safety margin, and the profitability of its quality assets is expected to be released [1] Company Overview - Yongxing Co., Ltd. has a waste incineration capacity of 32,000 tons per day and holds a monopoly position in the Guangzhou area [1] - The company is the leading player in solid waste management in Guangzhou, with stable main business profitability [1] Growth Potential - The blending of aged waste is expected to enhance capacity utilization rates, thereby increasing the company's profitability [1] - There is potential for upward performance elasticity due to the increase in capacity utilization driven by the blending of aged waste [1] Financial Performance - Capital expenditures are narrowing, and free cash flow has turned positive, with dividends remaining stable at over 60% [1] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 4.134 billion, 4.387 billion, and 4.751 billion yuan, respectively, while net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 932 million, 1.06 billion, and 1.183 billion yuan [1] - Based on the closing price on August 4, the corresponding price-to-earnings ratios (PE) are 14.85x, 13.05x, and 11.7x for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [1] Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [6] Core Viewpoints - The public utility market reform is progressing, which is beneficial for industry profitability and cash flow improvement. The report highlights a valuation recovery logic and is optimistic about quality targets in the waste incineration, water, and gas sectors [2][9] Summary by Sections Event Description - On April 29, 2025, the Guangzhou Development and Reform Commission announced a water price reform, effective June 1, with the first, second, and third tier prices set at 2.55, 3.82, and 7.65 yuan per cubic meter respectively [4] Event Commentary - The report emphasizes the necessity of price adjustments due to rising operational costs for water supply companies, which have seen losses increase from -447 million yuan in 2020 to -653 million yuan in 2022. The price adjustments reflect a balance between profitability and public affordability, with increases of 28.8%, 28.6%, and 93.2% for the respective tiers [9] - Shenzhen is also moving forward with water price adjustments, indicating a broader trend in public utility reforms [9] Market Trends - The report notes that major cities are implementing or considering water price adjustments, which will enhance the profitability of water companies. The waste incineration sector is also expected to benefit from new revenue models and fee structures, while gas pricing reforms are anticipated to improve margins for city gas companies [9] - The report recommends several companies in the waste incineration, water, and gas sectors, including Hanlan Environment, Weiming Environmental, and China Gas, as quality investment targets [9]

Summary of Yongxing Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - Yongxing Co., Ltd. operates in the waste incineration industry, primarily based in Guangzhou, with over 20 years of operational experience. The company controls 14 incineration projects with a total capacity of 32,000 tons per day and 4 biomass treatment projects with a designed capacity of 2,600 tons per day. In January 2025, the company plans to increase its stake in a solid waste treatment project to 50% to strengthen its industry position [4][8]. Core Business Logic - The core logic for Yongxing's sustained value growth and cash flow enhancement lies in its significant resource advantages and ample capital expenditure. The company's capacity utilization rate is approximately 70% in 2023, indicating substantial growth potential. The company does not rely on government subsidies but aims to enhance its valuation through improved asset quality, profitability, and cash flow. In 2023, free cash flow turned positive, with a commitment to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 60% [3][4]. Financial Performance - From 2019 to 2023, Yongxing achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% in revenue and 55% in net profit. Although recent growth has slowed due to all projects entering the operational phase, long-term growth potential remains strong. The company expects to recognize over 100 million yuan in subsidy income once the Guangzhou Phase II project enters the national subsidy directory, indicating potential underestimation of profitability [4][9]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2023, Yongxing's revenue per ton was 417 yuan, and gross profit per ton was 190 yuan, both leading the industry. The weighted average return on equity (ROE) reached 9.3%. High profitability is attributed to elevated waste treatment fees and electricity income, along with efficient evaporation technology and Guangdong's benchmark coal-fired electricity price [4][15][16]. Capacity Utilization and Future Projections - The company anticipates an increase in capacity utilization from 71% in 2023 to 92% by 2026, with projected net profits of approximately 770 million, 910 million, and 1 billion yuan for 2024-2026, respectively. The company is expected to enjoy a higher price-to-earnings (PE) valuation due to its asset superiority [4][26]. Market Opportunities - Yongxing is actively engaging in the treatment of municipal and industrial waste, leveraging the substantial stock of municipal waste in Guangzhou (approximately 70 million tons) to fill capacity gaps. The company is also exploring partnerships with high-quality clients, such as data centers, to expand its energy supply and heating services [5][7][21]. Challenges and Risks - The company faces challenges such as depreciation pressure and potential impacts from changes in accounting policies. However, opportunities exist in expanding waste resources and enhancing heating services, which are expected to drive continued growth [10][11]. Cash Flow and Dividend Policy - Yongxing's cash flow structure is robust, with a healthy balance between waste treatment fees (36%), benchmark electricity prices (51%), and provincial subsidies (7%). The company has a low reliance on national subsidies compared to industry averages, enhancing cash flow security. The dividend payout ratio for 2023 was 64%, with a dividend yield exceeding 3% [12][19]. Geographic Advantages - Guangzhou's status as a population inflow area provides a stable and growing source of waste for Yongxing. The city's waste generation is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7% from 2025 to 2035, which will support increased capacity utilization [14][20]. Future Growth Directions - Yongxing plans to focus on expanding its waste processing capacity and improving heating services. The company is also exploring opportunities in solid waste management in various regions and has outlined plans for emergency landfill projects [21][22]. Valuation and Market Position - Yongxing's asset superiority allows it to command a premium in valuation. The company is expected to see its price-to-book (PB) ratio increase as capacity utilization and ROE improve. The current overall PE level is around 14 times, higher than the industry average of 12 times, with potential for further upward movement [26][27].

1栋4层401-199房） 广州环投永兴集团股份有限公司 Grandtop Yongxing Group Co.,Ltd （广州市白云区广州民营科技园科泰二路13-19号高新区产业创新园 首次公开发行股票并在主板上市 招股说明书 （注册稿） 广东省深圳市福田区中心三路 8 号卓越时代广场（二期）北座 二〇二三年八月 保荐人（主承销商） 广州环投永兴集团股份有限公司 招股说明书（注册稿） 声 明 中国证监会、交易所对本次发行所作的任何决定或意见，均不表明其对发行 人注册申请文件及所披露信息的真实性、准确性、完整性作出保证，也不表明其 对发行人的盈利能力、投资价值或者对投资者的收益作出实质性判断或保证。任 何与之相反的声明均属虚假不实陈述。 根据《证券法》规定，股票依法发行后，发行人经营与收益的变化，由发行 人自行负责；投资者自主判断发行人的投资价值，自主作出投资决策，自行承担 股票依法发行后因发行人经营与收益变化或者股票价格变动引致的投资风险。 1-1-1 广州环投永兴集团股份有限公司 招股说明书（注册稿） 本次发行概况 | 发行股票类型 | 人民币普通股（A股） | | --- | --- | | 发行股数 ...

广州环投永兴集团股份有限公司 Grandtop Yongxing Group Co.,Ltd （广州市白云区广州民营科技园科泰二路13-19号高新区产业创新园 1栋4层401-199房） 首次公开发行股票并在主板上市 招股说明书 （上会稿） 广东省深圳市福田区中心三路 8 号卓越时代广场（二期）北座 二〇二三年七月 保荐人（主承销商） 广州环投永兴集团股份有限公司 招股说明书（上会稿） 声 明 中国证监会、交易所对本次发行所作的任何决定或意见，均不表明其对发行 人注册申请文件及所披露信息的真实性、准确性、完整性作出保证，也不表明其 对发行人的盈利能力、投资价值或者对投资者的收益作出实质性判断或保证。任 何与之相反的声明均属虚假不实陈述。 根据《证券法》规定，股票依法发行后，发行人经营与收益的变化，由发行 人自行负责；投资者自主判断发行人的投资价值，自主作出投资决策，自行承担 股票依法发行后因发行人经营与收益变化或者股票价格变动引致的投资风险。 1-1-1 广州环投永兴集团股份有限公司 招股说明书（上会稿） 本次发行概况 | 发行股票类型 | 人民币普通股（A股） | | --- | --- | | 发行股数 ...

广州环投永兴集团股份有限公司 Grandtop Yongxing Group Co.,Ltd （广州市白云区广州民营科技园科泰二路13-19号高新区产业创新园 1栋4层401-199房） 首次公开发行股票并在主板上市 招股说明书 （申报稿） 广东省深圳市福田区中心三路 8 号卓越时代广场（二期）北座 二〇二三年二月 保荐人（主承销商） 广州环投永兴集团股份有限公司 招股说明书（申报稿） 声 明 中国证监会、交易所对本次发行所作的任何决定或意见，均不表明其对发行 人注册申请文件及所披露信息的真实性、准确性、完整性作出保证，也不表明其 对发行人的盈利能力、投资价值或者对投资者的收益作出实质性判断或保证。任 何与之相反的声明均属虚假不实陈述。 根据《证券法》规定，股票依法发行后，发行人经营与收益的变化，由发行 人自行负责；投资者自主判断发行人的投资价值，自主作出投资决策，自行承担 股票依法发行后因发行人经营与收益变化或者股票价格变动引致的投资风险。 1-1-1 广州环投永兴集团股份有限公司 招股说明书（申报稿） 本次发行概况 | 发行股票类型 | 人民币普通股（A股） | | --- | --- | | 发行股数 ...