来源：环球网 在成本高企的背景下，苹果首款折叠屏iPhone因面板、铰链及轻量化材料等核心组件成本较高，定价被 推向市场预测区间高端。富邦研究结合供应链分析与苹果利润结构，给出2399美元的预测售价。此前， 郭明錤曾预测该机型售价在2000美元至2500美元之间，彭博社马克·古尔曼则预计售价约2000美元。 尽管定价偏高，但富邦研究对该机型销售表现持乐观态度。以7%的市场渗透率为测算基础，这款折叠 屏iPhone的生命周期销量预计可达1540万部，其中2026年出货量约540万部。 【环球网科技综合报道】11月25日消息，据Investing报道，富邦研究近日发布行业报告，2026年全球智 能手机市场或将持续萎缩，但苹果首款折叠屏iPhone的亮相有望成为市场亮点，其预计售价2399美元， 生命周期销量预计达1540万部。 报告指出，2026年全球智能手机出货量预计降至12亿台，同比缩减4%；中国市场出货量约为2.75亿 台，同比下降3%；iPhone整体出货量预计为2.34亿台，同比减少4%。零组件成本上涨成为行业主要压 力来源，其中DRAM合约价较2024年第四季度上涨逾75%，2026年智能手机物料成本 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the optical industry [5] Core Insights - The optical upgrade trend is clear, opening multiple growth opportunities across various sectors [12] - The smartphone market is experiencing a recovery, with camera hardware upgrades becoming a key innovation direction [12] - The automotive sector is entering an era of equal access to intelligent driving, with a significant increase in demand for cameras and Lidar [2] - AI smart glasses are becoming a focal point for AI interaction, with a projected significant increase in sales [3] - The robotics sector is expanding with the integration of multiple visual sensors, indicating new opportunities in the optical field [4] Summary by Sections Smartphones - The global smartphone shipment is expected to reach 1.22 billion units in 2024, a 7% year-on-year increase, marking a rebound after two years of decline [12][18] - The demand for periscope lenses in smartphones is projected to grow from 46 million units in 2024 to 80 million units by 2026 [12] - The high-end smartphone camera module market is showing strong growth, with a 16% increase in shipments for mid-to-high-end modules [12][13] Automotive - China's new energy vehicle sales are projected to reach approximately 13.8 million units in 2024, a 46% year-on-year increase [2][14] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 55% by 2025, surpassing traditional fuel vehicles for the first time [2] - The demand for automotive cameras is increasing, with an average of 7 cameras per vehicle expected by 2025 [15] Smart Glasses - Global sales of AI smart glasses are projected to reach 5.5 million units in 2025, a 135% increase from 2024 [3][16] - The integration of cameras in AI smart glasses is crucial for providing intelligent interaction experiences [3] Robotics - The Chinese machine vision market is expected to grow to 39.5 billion yuan by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 17.5% from 2024 to 2028 [4][17] - The integration of multiple visual sensors in robotics is becoming increasingly important, with various companies adopting advanced visual systems [4][17]