证券研究报告 电子 | 半导体 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 08 月 26 日 证券分析师 葛星甫 SAC：S1350524120001 gexingfu@huayuanstock.com 联系人 熊宇翔 xiongyuxiang@huayuanstock.com | 基本数据 | | | 年 | 08 月 | 25 | 日 | 2025 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | 103.25 | | | | 一 年 内 最 最 低 | 高 | / | | | | | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | 41,490.14 | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | 33,354.32 | | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | | 401.84 | | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | | 54.59 | | | | 每股净资产（元/股） | | | | | 11.49 | | | | 资料来源： ...

Core Viewpoint - Intelligent driving has evolved from a technical highlight to a crucial factor for product differentiation among automakers and the commercialization of mobility services. The depth of technology, iteration speed, and scale of implementation will significantly influence the future competitive landscape and determine how automakers build sustainable competitive advantages in the "software-defined vehicle" arena [2][7]. Group 1: Intelligent Driving Development - Intelligent driving capabilities are becoming a battleground for automakers to shape brand premium, win user choices, and capture market share. The speed of implementation and penetration rate of intelligent driving systems create a technological gap among automakers, impacting the commercialization process [7]. - The commercialization process is accelerating, with increased regional pilots and favorable policies driving the rollout of L3 intelligent driving. The price range of 100,000 to 200,000 yuan is expected to dominate sales, with only 5% of models in this price range equipped with advanced intelligent driving features by 2024 [3][4]. - The "intelligent driving equity" trend is expected to drive the conversion of intelligent driving advantages into sales growth, with the Robotaxi market projected to reach hundreds of billions by 2030, showcasing significant potential [11]. Group 2: Technological Paradigms and Competition - The VLA (Vision-Language-Action) model is at the core of current intelligent driving solutions, integrating perception, cognition, and action. This model requires breakthroughs in world model construction and reinforcement learning to enhance its capabilities [8][9]. - The demand for computing power is surging, with the transition from L2 to L3 autonomous driving requiring a leap from 100+ TOPS to 500-1,000+ TOPS. The competition is shifting from single-vehicle computing power to the capabilities of vehicle chips and cloud supercomputing centers [9][52]. - Tesla has established a significant generational advantage through its fully self-developed closed-loop technology system, while domestic automakers are accelerating their catch-up efforts. The integration of VLA models is becoming a key focus for companies like Li Auto and Xiaopeng [10][12]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The establishment of a clear responsibility system under top-level policies and the maturation of intelligent driving technology towards L3 standards are promising. The trend of "intelligent driving equity" is expected to create a structural sales inflection point for intelligent driving vehicles [4]. - Companies with full-stack self-research capabilities, such as Li Auto, Xiaopeng, and Xiaomi Group, are recommended for investment, along with those employing self-research combined with third-party cooperation like BYD and Geely [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for BYD, indicating a projected stock price increase of 5% to 15% relative to the industry index over the next six months [5]. Core Views - BYD's overseas sales have significantly increased, with cumulative exports exceeding 500,000 vehicles from January to July 2025, showcasing the company's strong market expansion capabilities [2]. - The company has actively reduced inventory in response to national calls against excessive competition, reflecting a strategic shift to balance supply and demand [8]. - The recent production and sales data indicate a proactive approach to inventory management, with production in July 2025 at 318,000 units, a slight decrease of 0.92% year-on-year, while sales rose by 0.56% to 344,000 units [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections show a steady increase from 602.3 billion CNY in 2023 to 1,423.9 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 19% [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from 30.0 billion CNY in 2023 to 82.8 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [1]. - The report forecasts a return on equity (ROE) of 20.8% in 2023, increasing to 24.1% by 2027, indicating strong profitability [1]. Market Position and Strategy - BYD's market share in the export of new energy buses is notable, with a 27.29% share in the first half of 2025, highlighting its leadership in the sector [10]. - The establishment of a new factory in Brazil marks a significant step in BYD's global strategy, enhancing local production capabilities and supply chain collaboration [8]. - The company's proactive response to industry challenges, including price competition, positions it favorably for sustainable growth in the new energy vehicle market [8].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is facing a critical decision regarding the monetization of intelligent driving features, with calls for charging for these services rather than promoting them for free [4][10][20] Group 1: Industry Perspectives - Bosch's President in China, Wu Yongqiao, emphasized that all models must charge for advanced driver assistance features, rejecting the idea of free promotion [4][10] - Current intelligent driving systems exhibit various business models, with some manufacturers offering free services while others, like Tesla and Huawei, maintain subscription-based pricing [5][12] - The penetration rate of intelligent driving features is increasing, with the standard rate for NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) in China's passenger car market rising to 24.1% from 9.5% in just six months [9] Group 2: Cost Considerations - The decision to charge for intelligent driving services is driven by the need to cover substantial costs, including communication, data transmission, and personnel expenses [14][15] - The human resource costs for intelligent driving systems are significant, with companies like BYD employing large teams that incur monthly costs of up to 1 billion yuan [17] - Hardware costs, while decreasing with scale, still require ongoing investment in new technologies to maintain a competitive edge [18][20] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with many mainstream automakers adopting a "driving equality" strategy by offering free or low-cost intelligent driving features [10][11] - However, companies like Tesla and Huawei continue to advocate for a subscription model, with specific pricing structures for their intelligent driving services [12][13] - The overall profitability of the automotive industry is under pressure, with a reported decline in profits by 11.9% despite revenue growth [20]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is facing a critical decision regarding the monetization of intelligent driving features, with calls for charging for these services rather than offering them for free, as highlighted by Bosch's president in China, Wu Yongqiao [1][10]. Group 1: Current Market Dynamics - Intelligent driving is currently exhibiting various business models, with some manufacturers like Tesla and Huawei charging premium prices for their advanced driving features, while others are adopting a "driving equality" strategy by offering these services for free [1][7]. - The penetration rate of NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) in China's passenger car market has significantly increased from 9.5% to 24.1% within six months, indicating a growing adoption of intelligent driving technologies [4]. Group 2: Cost Considerations - Charging for intelligent driving systems allows manufacturers to generate revenue to offset research and development costs, while not charging can help increase user engagement and data collection for algorithm improvements [3][10]. - The costs associated with intelligent driving include annual communication and data transmission fees, as well as substantial human resources and hardware expenses, which are critical factors in the decision to implement a charging model [10][11]. Group 3: Competitive Strategies - Major automakers like BYD, Geely, and Chery are aggressively pursuing a "driving equality" strategy, with BYD offering advanced driving systems in vehicles priced as low as 100,000 yuan and Chery introducing models at 60,000 yuan [6]. - In contrast, companies like Tesla and Huawei maintain a subscription-based pricing model for their intelligent driving features, with Tesla's Enhanced Autopilot priced at 32,000 yuan and monthly subscriptions available [7][8]. Group 4: Industry Challenges - The automotive industry is experiencing intense price competition, which may lead to a "price war" as manufacturers strive to differentiate themselves through low-cost or free intelligent driving features [8]. - The overall profitability of the automotive sector has declined, with a reported 11.9% drop in industry profits despite a 7% increase in revenue and a 14% rise in passenger car sales from January to May [13].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is facing a pivotal decision regarding the monetization of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), with some manufacturers opting for free or low-cost models while others, like Tesla and Huawei, maintain subscription-based pricing [1][5][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - The penetration rate of NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) in China's passenger car market has increased significantly, reaching 24.1% in June from 9.5% six months prior [3]. - Major automakers such as BYD, Geely, Chery, Changan, and GAC are aggressively pursuing a "driving equality" strategy, offering advanced driving features at lower price points [4]. - Tesla's Enhanced Autopilot (EAP) is priced at 32,000 yuan, with subscription options available, while Huawei's high-end ADS package costs 36,000 yuan [5]. Group 2: Cost Considerations - The decision to charge for ADAS is driven by the need to cover substantial costs associated with communication, data transmission, and ongoing software development [7][8]. - The human resource costs for developing and maintaining ADAS are significant, with companies like BYD reportedly spending 1 billion yuan monthly on their 4,000-person ADAS team [8]. - Hardware costs for ADAS, including sensors and high-performance chips, are substantial, although they are decreasing as technology advances [9][12]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The automotive industry is experiencing intense price competition, which is affecting profit margins, with overall industry profits down by 11.9% despite a 7% revenue increase [12]. - There is a pressing need for automakers to find a balance between cost and user experience while establishing a consensus on the value of "service fees" for ADAS [12].

Group 1 - LiDAR is a core sensor for autonomous driving, offering significant advantages in performance, anti-interference, and information capacity compared to cameras and millimeter-wave radars [3][15][23] - The cost of LiDAR has significantly decreased from tens of thousands of yuan to around 2000-3000 yuan, leading to increased shipments from major manufacturers [3][23][28] - The demand for LiDAR is expected to surge in 2024, driven by the explosion of mid-to-high-level autonomous driving needs represented by NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) [3][52][56] Group 2 - The penetration rate of NOA is steadily increasing, which is driving the rise in LiDAR installations [42][43] - Robotaxi services are rapidly developing, with significant market recognition, further pushing the demand for LiDAR [56][63] - The mandatory implementation of AEB (Automatic Emergency Braking) systems is expected to enhance the usage rate of LiDAR in vehicles [66][72] Group 3 - The market for LiDAR is entering a golden period of "volume and price rise," with Chinese manufacturers leading globally in scale, cost, and production rhythm [4][28][40] - Major companies in the LiDAR sector include Juxing Technology, Yongxin Optical, Yutong Optical, and Junsheng Electronics, which are recommended for investment [4][3][40] - The overall market for LiDAR is projected to grow significantly, with the penetration of LiDAR in lower-priced vehicles expected to increase [28][37][40]

Core Viewpoint - The global camera module market is expected to grow from $36 billion in 2023 to $46 billion by 2029, driven by innovations in optics, the acceleration of automotive intelligence, and the increasing popularity of new consumer imaging devices [1] Group 1: Mobile Phones - The focus of competition in mobile phone configurations is shifting towards optical technology upgrades, with innovations such as periscope cameras and OIS optical stabilization penetrating mid-range models [2] - New technologies like variable apertures and hybrid lenses are expected to accelerate penetration into high-end models, driven by industry leaders [2] - Continuous attempts by mobile manufacturers to innovate in optical technology are likely to sustain steady growth in the mobile optical market [2] Group 2: Smart Imaging Devices - Optical systems are a crucial component of smart imaging devices, with professional drones typically equipped with around six cameras, and optical lenses accounting for nearly 60% of the BOM cost of handheld smart imaging devices [3] - Companies like DJI, Insta360, and GoPro are continuously innovating their products, and the demand for short video creation is driving the growth of drones and handheld smart imaging devices [3] - The increase in shipments of drones and handheld smart imaging devices is expected to accelerate the expansion of the related optical module market [3] Group 3: Automotive - The "intelligent driving equality" era is expected to begin in 2025, with companies like BYD leading the way, marking a turning point for high-level intelligent vehicles [4] - The number of cameras used in high-level intelligent vehicles is projected to increase from 3-8 to 8-12, with pixel requirements rising from 2M to 8M [4] - The growth in sales of high-level intelligent vehicles is anticipated to drive significant revenue growth for companies in the optical industry chain [4] Group 4: XR Devices and Robotics - Optical modules are essential for creating immersive experiences in XR devices, with major manufacturers pushing for technological upgrades and market maturity [5] - The global demand for VR/AR cameras is expected to rise from 60 million units in 2024 to 227 million units by 2029 [5] - Robotics companies like Tesla and UTree Technology are advancing humanoid robot technology, which is expected to open up consumer applications and growth potential in the optical industry chain [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid evolution of the Yangtze River Delta's electric vehicle (EV) industry, transitioning from electrification to intelligent driving, driven by leading companies like Tesla, Li Auto, and BYD [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The Yangtze River Delta region accounts for 40% of China's EV production and over 25% of global production, forming a significant industrial cluster with a "4-hour industrial circle" [1] - Li Auto's supply chain is heavily concentrated in this region, with 30% of its supply chain in Changzhou, 50% in Jiangsu, and 80% in the Yangtze River Delta [1] Group 2: Intelligent Driving Technology - By 2025, "smart driving equity" is expected to be a key industry term, with intelligent driving technology penetrating the mainstream market priced between 100,000 to 200,000 yuan [2] - China's L2-level assisted driving penetration rate has surpassed 50%, the highest globally, with expectations for advanced driving solutions to grow significantly by 2030 [2][3] Group 3: Technological Advancements - Horizon Robotics holds a 33.97% market share in L2 assisted driving solutions for domestic passenger vehicles, indicating that one in three smart cars is equipped with their technology [3] - The company emphasizes the importance of balancing cost and performance in chip development, aiming for significant improvements in computational efficiency rather than just raw power [4] Group 4: Localized Supply Chain Strategy - Li Auto is accelerating its localized supply chain strategy, with its Changzhou manufacturing base serving as a hub for key components like silicon carbide power modules and electric drive systems [7][8] - The company has achieved significant advancements in battery technology, with the latest models featuring rapid charging capabilities that have improved over a short period [8][9] Group 5: Collaborative Innovation - The relationship between Li Auto and its suppliers is characterized by co-creation and mutual empowerment, with regular collaborative meetings to enhance project and technology development [11][12] - Strategic partnerships have led to significant improvements in manufacturing processes and quality control, exemplified by the low defect rates achieved by battery supplier Xinwanda [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 110.88 CNY based on a 44x PE valuation for 2025 [2][5]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit significantly from the domestic substitution of high-end microscopes, with a current market share of over 5% in this segment. The growth is expected to accelerate due to government policies and increased funding for equipment updates [9]. - The barcode business remains stable, with a long-term gross margin of approximately 40%. The company has successfully expanded into high-performance module products, enhancing customer loyalty and collaboration [9]. - The laser radar optical components business is entering a phase of scale production, with revenues expected to exceed 100 million CNY in 2024, benefiting from the trend of "smart driving equality" [9]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.52 CNY, 3.10 CNY, and 3.85 CNY respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment from previous forecasts due to lower revenue and gross margin expectations [2][10]. - Revenue is expected to grow significantly from 1,123 million CNY in 2025 to 1,768 million CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 24.9% [4]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 39.3% in 2025 to 40.6% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [4].