Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank indicates that Novo Nordisk's current valuation reflects that of a mature pharmaceutical company lacking growth momentum, raising questions about whether the lowered guidance is due to a conservative management approach or a genuine deterioration in business prospects [1][3]. Group 1: Performance Guidance - Novo Nordisk has lowered its 2025 fiscal year sales growth guidance to a range of 8-14% and EBIT growth to 10-16%, which is a significant reduction from previous expectations [6]. - To meet the new lower limit of 8% sales growth, Novo Nordisk would need to achieve nearly zero growth in the second half of the year, which is challenging given the current performance of Wegovy and Ozempic [6]. - Deutsche Bank notes that the upper end of the revised guidance aligns closely with their prior expectations, suggesting that the market is currently pricing Novo Nordisk as a company that has lost its growth momentum [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - The ongoing competition from compounded generic drugs continues to impact Novo Nordisk, with approximately 1 million patients in the U.S. still using compounded medications [4]. - Despite an increase in 503A supply to offset the decline in 503B, the overall competitive landscape has not improved, raising concerns about Novo Nordisk's ability to reduce the influx of compounded drugs into the market [4]. - Analysts believe that Novo Nordisk should expand its market for semaglutide-based drugs in the second half of the year, but failure to do so may indicate flaws in the market's total addressable market (TAM) assumptions [5]. Group 3: Strategic Focus and Market Potential - The new CEO of Novo Nordisk has stated that the company will prioritize innovation investments and commercial execution, with cash prescription business share increasing from 4% at the beginning of the year to 12% [5]. - In the obesity market, it is confirmed that out of 100 million obese individuals, 55 million have employer-sponsored insurance coverage for Wegovy, indicating a significant market opportunity [5]. - Wegovy's prescription volume has reached approximately 275,000, with new prescription share rising to over 40%, suggesting a positive trend in market uptake [5].