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阳光诺和(688621):临床延续高增 看好新药转化释放
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-15 10:38
投资要点 经营质量分析:现金流波动较大,看好快速修复2024 年公司经营性净现金流为0.32 亿元,同比减少较 多,主要或和公司应收周转率下滑有关,2024 年公司应收账款周转天数为123 天,同比增长约27 天。 我们认为,现金流与应收的变化趋势反映了行业及宏观环境的变化,而基于公司围绕中大型药企客户服 务的战略,我们看好公司经营质量的快速修复及未来稳定性。 盈利预测与估值 业绩表现:四季度收入利润增速略有波动 考虑到2024 年仿制药药学研究市场竞争加剧超我们此前预期,我们下调此前盈利预测,我们预计2025- 2027 年,公司分别实现收入12.80/15.01/17.56 亿元,同比增速分别为18.73%/17.19%/17.05%;分别实现 归母净利润1.79/2.16/2.62 亿元,同比增速分别为0.72%/21.09%/21.05%;EPS 分别为1.60/1.93/2.34 元, 2025年4 月14 日收盘价对应2025 年PE 为27x,维持"增持"评级。 2024 年:实现收入10.78 亿元,yoy+15.7%;实现归母净利润1.77 亿元,yoy-3.98%。 2024Q4:实现收入 ...
阳光诺和(688621):2024年报点评报告:临床延续高增,看好新药转化释放
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-15 09:01
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [8] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.078 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 177 million yuan, down 3.98% year-on-year [1] - The large clinical business segment generated revenue of 512 million yuan in 2024, showing a robust growth of 41.19% year-on-year, indicating a strong support for the company's service sector in the next three years [2] - The self-developed new drug pipeline is progressing well, with key products entering various clinical phases, suggesting that 2025 may be a year of significant new drug transformations for the company [3] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 50.18%, a decrease of 6.5 percentage points year-on-year, but is expected to stabilize as the market competition in pharmaceutical research stabilizes [4] - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 32 million yuan, a significant decrease, but the company is expected to recover quickly due to its strategic focus on serving large pharmaceutical clients [5] - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is set at 1.280 billion, 1.501 billion, and 1.756 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 18.73%, 17.19%, and 17.05% [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.078 billion yuan and a net profit of 177 million yuan, with a notable decline in Q4 revenue to 162 million yuan, down 32.62% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 50.18%, reflecting a decrease due to increased competition in the generic drug market and a higher proportion of lower-margin clinical service revenue [4] Growth Potential - The large clinical business segment is expected to continue its high growth trajectory, with a revenue increase of 41.19% in 2024 [2] - The self-developed new drug pipeline is advancing, with multiple products entering clinical trials, indicating potential for significant revenue contributions starting in 2025 [3] Profitability and Cash Flow - The company’s R&D expense ratio increased to 15.94% in 2024, driven by accelerated clinical progress of core self-developed pipelines [4] - Operating cash flow was reported at 32 million yuan, reflecting challenges in accounts receivable turnover, but a recovery is anticipated [5] Earnings Forecast - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.280 billion, 1.501 billion, and 1.756 billion yuan, with net profits expected to grow to 179 million, 216 million, and 262 million yuan respectively [6]