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春风动力(603129):跟踪点评:10月数据靓丽,期待明年新品周期
Huafu Securities· 2025-11-16 06:09
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark within the next six months [20]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong performance in October, with the U10 PRO four-wheeler validating its product capabilities. The upcoming Z10 and other high-value new products are expected to further enhance market share in the U/Z series, initiating a new product cycle [3]. - The Milan Motor Show showcased the high-performance racing model V4 SR-RR, which competes with top foreign brands, while also targeting the small-displacement market, thereby expanding opportunities for motorcycle exports [3]. - The report emphasizes the improvement in the global positioning of domestic motorcycle brands, suggesting potential valuation uplift opportunities [3]. Industry Overview - In October, the motorcycle industry saw a total of 1.4524 million fuel motorcycle sales, a month-on-month decrease of 13.64% but a year-on-year increase of 10.3%. Electric motorcycle sales reached 301,200 units, down 6.58% month-on-month but up 16.23% year-on-year [4]. - The industry exported 1.051 million motorcycles in October, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 14.32% but a year-on-year increase of 17.66%. The export value was $682 million, down 14.8% month-on-month but up 23.07% year-on-year [4]. Company Performance - The company’s total motorcycle sales (including electric motorcycles) reached 45,000 units in October, a year-on-year increase of 69%. Fuel motorcycle sales were 17,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 12% [6]. - The company’s sales of large-displacement motorcycles (over 250cc) totaled 11,000 units in October, up 28% year-on-year, with exports increasing by 75% [6]. - Electric motorcycle sales reached 28,000 units in October, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 141%, indicating strong performance even in the off-season [7]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report maintains previous profit forecasts, projecting net profits of 1.867 billion, 2.435 billion, and 3.041 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 27%, 30%, and 25% respectively. The corresponding P/E ratios are expected to be 21x, 16x, and 13x [8].