Core Viewpoint - The company, Hichain Bonda Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd., is forecasting a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year, primarily due to market fluctuations and declining air freight rates [2][3][7]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company to be between 16 million to 19 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a decrease of 52.248 million to 55.248 million yuan, or a decline of 73.33% to 77.54% year-on-year [2][3]. - The forecasted net profit, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is estimated to be between 5 million to 7 million yuan, which is a reduction of 64.226 million to 66.226 million yuan, equating to a year-on-year decrease of 90.17% to 92.98% [2][3]. Group 2: Previous Year Performance - In the same period last year, the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 71.248 million yuan, and the net profit after excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 71.226 million yuan [5]. - The earnings per share for the previous year was 0.35 yuan per share [6]. Group 3: Reasons for Performance Decline - The decline in performance is attributed to the company's international air freight business, which reserved capacity in advance to ensure supply stability. However, due to trade policies and market demand fluctuations, the actual business performance did not meet expectations, compounded by a decrease in international air freight rates [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huamao Logistics [8] Core Views - The company's performance meets expectations, with a significant potential for freight forwarding profitability due to supply-demand mismatches in container shipping [8] - The report highlights the impact of rising air and sea freight costs on profit margins, alongside increased investment in overseas network development [8] - The easing of tariffs between China and the US is expected to release pent-up demand, significantly boosting freight forwarding profits [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 17,525 million in 2024 to 20,300 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.6% [2][10] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 539 million in 2024 to 685 million by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 10.8% [2][10] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.41 yuan in 2024 to 0.52 yuan in 2027 [2][10] - The gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 10.6% in 2024 to 11.1% in 2027 [2] Market Data - As of May 15, 2025, the closing price of the stock is 6.96 yuan, with a market capitalization of 9,111 million [3] - The stock has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio projected to decrease from 17 in 2024 to 13 in 2027 [2][3] - The dividend yield is estimated at approximately 4.6% for 2025, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder returns [8]