1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 固定收益丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 利率上行，地方付息压力怎么看？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com [Table_Summary] 2025 年以来利率上行抬高了地方政府新增债券的发行成本，叠加土地收入下滑，导致其专项债 付息压力持续攀升，2025 年全国层面付息压力预计达 8.42%，正逼近 10%的政策警戒线。压力 呈现显著结构性分化，部分省份和多数地市已提前触及或超过风险阈值，债务风险呈现由基层 向省级上移趋势。尽管付息支出增长正在挤压其他财政支出空间，但由于存量债务基数庞大， 当前利率上升的边际冲击总体仍属可控，需市场利率在现有基础上再大幅上行超过 80 个基点， 才有可能会触及全国性警戒线或耗尽财政腾挪空间，因此预计地方付息压力短期内难以触发货 币政策宽松，降息或调整债券期限结构更多属于中长期应对逻辑。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马月 马玮健 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490525080001 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 21 %% %% %% ...

Core Viewpoint - Local governments are beginning to repay debts early, with a focus on saving interest costs, following the trend set by local financing platforms that have already started early repayment of urban investment bonds [1][4]. Group 1: Early Repayment of Bonds - The Shaanxi Provincial Finance Department announced plans to repay part of its government bonds early, including a 60 million yuan repayment of a 6 billion yuan bond issued in 2019 and a 30 million yuan repayment of an 18.22 billion yuan bond issued in 2020 [2]. - Beijing has also been a pioneer in early repayment of government bonds, saving over 70% in interest expenses, and has repaid 39 million yuan in 2023, 4.976 billion yuan in 2024, and 145 million yuan by August of the current year [3]. Group 2: Cost-Saving Considerations - The primary reason for early repayment is to save on interest costs, as the interest rates on old debts are significantly higher than current rates [4]. - As of June 2025, the average issuance rate for local government bonds was 1.80%, a decrease of 54 basis points year-on-year, making early repayment financially advantageous for governments [5]. Group 3: Types of Bonds and Repayment Sources - Local government bonds are categorized into general bonds and special bonds, with special bonds being used for revenue-generating projects. Special bonds accounted for 65% of the total local government debt of 47.5 trillion yuan by the end of 2024 [6]. - The funds for early repayment are derived from the asset disposal income of the projects corresponding to the special bonds, and both Shaanxi and Beijing used competitive bidding to determine repayment prices [7]. Group 4: Market Impact and Challenges - The early repayment of bonds is expected to align with market prices, allowing creditors the option to hold or trade their bonds in the secondary market if they find the terms unfavorable [8]. - The limited number of local governments opting for early repayment is attributed to constrained fiscal space and the difficulty in assessing the market value of fixed assets generated from special bond investments [9].