来源：中新经纬 A股将迎来2026年首个交易日，今年能否延续强势行情？ 2025年，上证指数以"11连阳"收官。回看全年，上证指数涨18.41%，深证成指涨29.87%，创业板指涨 49.57%。 上交所发布的2025年上海股票市场统计表显示，截至2025年底，沪市总市值约64.78万亿元，较2024年 底增加约12.35万亿元；股票筹资额约1.04万亿元，同比增长343.64%，其中IPO筹资额813亿元，同比增 长148.75%；股票账户数3.99亿户，较2024年底增加2700万户。 深交所披露，2025年深市公司回购增持金额上限超1100亿元，分红持续超5000亿元；深市ETF总规模超 过1.79万亿元，同比增长79%；全年IPO公司48家，其中87.5%属于战略新兴产业；全年股票融资额1485 亿元。 值得注意的是，当地时间1月3日，美国空袭委内瑞拉首都并抓获了委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其妻子。招商 证券指出，从后续影响来看，短期油价走势或较为纠结。在美国抑制通胀的诉求下，油价可能下跌，利 好航空、炼化化工等油价敏感的下游板块。另外，美国行动较为快速的背景下，短期美元或较为强势， 黄金走势或较为纠结。同时 ...

在2025年12月22日至12月26日当周，第一财经研究院中国金融条件日度指数均值为-2.25，基本与前一 周持平。从指数的成分指标来看，上周货币和股市指标指向宽松，债券指标指向紧缩。从货币指标来 看，央行维持稳定的货币投放，市场资金面平稳有序，主要货币市场利率低位运行。从债券市场来看， 利率债与信用债收益率同步下降，信用利差小幅扩张。从股市指标来看，A股市盈率与成交量同步上 升。 12月24日，人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第四季度例会内容公布。会议内容延续了12月中旬中央经济 工作会议针对货币政策的描述，释放出一系列关键政策信号，我们的解读如下： （1）在判断国内外经济金融形势方面，会议指出"当前外部环境变化影响加深，世界经济增长动能不 足，贸易壁垒增多，主要经济体经济表现有所分化，通胀走势和货币政策调整存在不确定性。我国经济 运行总体平稳、稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效，但仍面临供强需弱矛盾突出等问题和挑战。"会议 延续了中央经济工作会议对于我国经济目前"供强需弱"的描述，这也是政策促进物价合理回升的着力 点。 （2）会议指出，"要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，更好发挥货币政 ...

新华财经北京12月29日电（王菁）2025岁末回望，我国债券市场在复杂的内外部环境中，以扩容提质为 主轴，描绘出一幅波澜壮阔的创新开放画卷。 它是超196万亿元总规模稳居世界第二的坚实基座，也是科技创新债券精准滴灌的"试验田"；是十年期 国债在1.6%至1.9%区间"折返跑"的博弈舞台，也是跨境"玉兰债"与"中英柜台债"等品种连接世界的开放 窗口；是公募REITs与持有型不动产ABS的相辅相成，也是债券ETF规模一年激增超300%、快速突破 7000亿元成为"吸金"主力，更是吸引全球1187家境外机构、持债约3.6万亿元的"强磁场"...... 这一年，债券市场告别单边行情，在震荡中夯实韧性，在开放中重塑格局，以金融血脉的澎湃活力，为 经济高质量发展提供了坚实支撑。 宏观背景与政策基调：协同发力，护航实体 2025年，宏观政策在复杂环境中展现出精准的协同性与前瞻性。货币政策保持支持性立场，全年实 施"适度宽松"基调。中国人民银行综合运用降准、降息、公开市场操作与中期借贷便利（MLF）等多种 工具，维持流动性合理充裕。财政政策则更加积极有为，扮演了稳投资、促需求的"关键引擎"。全年超 长期特别国债与地方政府专项 ...

据大公国际及多家券商数据显示，2025年上半年，信用债发行数量达11,077只，发行规模突破10.16万亿元，同比分别增长6.75%和 4.39%。利率债供给亦显著加码，其中国债净融资规模接近3.4万亿元，约为2024年同期的两倍。 尤为亮眼的是，科技创新债券迎来爆发式增长。截至2025年底，全国科创债发行规模已突破1.7万亿元，成为科技企业直接融资的"超级 引擎"。多地政府出台专项支持政策，鼓励资金精准投向高端制造、人工智能、新能源等前沿领域。与此同时，首只科创债ETF成功上 市，极大提升了市场流动性和投资者参与度。 地方政府专项债同样表现强劲。2025年上半年新增专项债发行规模达21,607亿元，同比增长44.7%，重点投向市政基建、绿色低碳、现 代物流及先进制造业，有效拉动了有效投资和重大项目落地。 二级市场：告别单边牛市，步入高波动震荡格局 闪闻金融12月26日消息 2025年，中国债券市场在多重挑战与政策引导下走出一条"规模扩张"与"结构优化"并重的发展路径。一级市场发 行火热，二级市场震荡加剧，科技创新债券（科创债）异军突起，绿色金融持续深化，债市正从传统融资工具向服务国家战略、培育新 质生产力的 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 展望明年，我们认为，结合积极的财政政策基调以及中央预算稳定调节基金的特点， 2026 年存在小幅提高赤字率的可能性，同时综合考虑调入资金及结转结余（2025 年财 政预算显示，第一本账收入中调入资金及使用结转结余 20555 亿元），则 2026 年广义 财政力度或将下降。预计 2026 年赤字率可能设定为 4.0%~4.2%左右，对应赤字规模 为 5.89 万亿至 6.19 万亿左右，广义赤字规模约为 11.79 万亿至 12.09 万亿左右（地方 专项债规模或设定为 4.4 万亿左右，超长期特别国债或维持 1.2 万亿左右规模，持续发 力"两重""两新"，特别国债或为 3000 亿左右规模，支持国有大型商业银行补充资本。） ❑ 一般公共预算：11 月税收收入增速放缓 11 月全国一般公共预算收入 14026 亿元，同比增长-0.02%，较前值放缓。从结构 上看，11 月全国税收收入 11450 亿元，同比增长 2.8%，1-11 月全国税收收入增长 1.8%，较前值 1.7%小幅扩大。11 月非税收入 2576 亿元，同比下降 10.8%，延续 了 5 月份以 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the bond market, particularly the dynamics of long-term and short-term interest rates, as well as investment strategies for December 2025 [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Cautious Investment Stance**: The bond market is under pressure, and a cautious approach is recommended. There is no strong bearish sentiment, but optimism is also not warranted due to the lack of new variables to drive rates down [2][3]. - **Long-term Interest Rates**: The 30-year government bond has seen significant declines due to poor market sentiment, expectations of increased special government bonds, and rising inflation expectations. The spread between 30-year and 10-year bonds remains high [3][4]. - **Short-term Interest Rates**: The one-year deposit rate has limited downward potential, and the current environment suggests that short-term bonds should be treated with a focus on coupon income, especially when there is room for arbitrage [4][7]. - **Investment Strategies**: Three recommended strategies include: 1. High-leverage short-duration credit strategy for cautious investors [5]. 2. Selection of well-performing bonds within the same duration, such as 5-year and 10-year government bonds [5]. 3. Focus on more flexible instruments like 30-year government bonds [5]. - **Credit and Local Government Bonds**: Preference for liquid 3-5 year bonds, with a focus on new and old bonds over three years for better value [6]. Additional Important Insights - **Central Bank Buying Scale**: The current central bank buying scale is 50 billion, which is below market expectations. If short-term rates rise, the central bank may increase its buying scale [7]. - **Bond Spread Dynamics**: The reasonable spread between specific bonds (e.g., 特二 and 特六) is estimated to be around 3 basis points, with recent fluctuations noted [8]. - **Investment Value of 2,502 Bonds**: The investment logic for 2,502 bonds hinges on whether they will be renewed in Q1 2026, with potential for significant activity if renewed [9]. - **Short-term Bonds and Floating Rate Bonds**: Recommendations include 5-year government bonds and specific floating rate bonds for investors looking for good holding value [10]. - **Trends in Convertible Bonds**: The convertible bond market is expected to be volatile in December, with a focus on low-valuation stocks and those with less crowding [12][13]. - **Market Relationships**: The relationship between the convertible bond market and the stock market is crucial, with potential valuation fluctuations expected due to market conditions [14]. - **New vs. Old Bonds**: New bonds are favored due to lower risk of forced redemption, while old bonds face higher risks [15]. - **Balanced Convertible Bonds**: These bonds are recommended for defensive strategies due to their stable price performance [16]. - **Sector Focus**: Attention is drawn to sectors like AI, nuclear fusion, and quantum computing, with specific companies highlighted for their potential [17].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of local government special bonds directed towards government investment funds marks a significant shift in investment strategy, with a total scale exceeding 800 billion yuan, reflecting a policy change that allows for broader investment areas beyond traditional infrastructure projects [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The policy change effective from December 2024 allows special bonds to be used for projects not included in a "negative list," enabling investments in emerging industries such as information technology, new materials, and digital economy [1][2]. - This shift is seen as a response to the dual pressures of local fiscal constraints and national strategic directives, aiming to leverage social capital for industrial transformation and technological innovation [2]. Group 2: Financial Implications - The average DPI (Distributions to Paid-In) of government-guided funds is reported to be only 0.7, raising concerns about the investment effectiveness of special bonds directed towards these funds [3]. - The primary purchasers of these bonds are expected to be banks, insurance companies, and bond funds, which typically have low-risk appetites and favor government-backed securities [3][5]. Group 3: Project Selection and Management - Local governments possess a natural advantage in project selection, having access to lists of high-quality enterprises, which allows for effective identification of projects that align with policy goals and risk requirements [4]. - Despite the advantages in project selection, the post-investment effectiveness is still influenced by market conditions and company performance, necessitating robust post-investment management and ongoing policy support [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The large-scale issuance of special bonds for government investment funds represents an innovative financing channel independent of traditional fiscal budgets, but the future scale of such issuances and their impact on government investment fund development remains to be observed [5]. - The success of bond issuance is contingent on economic conditions, which will affect financial institutions' willingness to allocate resources, although current conditions suggest a low-risk environment for short-term investments [5].

Policy Financial Tools Dynamics - New policy financial tools have been established with a total issuance of 500 billion yuan, focusing on key areas such as technological innovation, consumption expansion, and stabilizing foreign trade [2][3] - The issuance breakdown includes 250 billion yuan from the China Development Bank, 150 billion yuan from the Agricultural Development Bank, and 100 billion yuan from the Export-Import Bank, supporting over 2,000 projects [3] Local Government Debt Issuance - From January to September 2025, local governments issued a total of 36,857 billion yuan in new special bonds, with Guangdong province alone exceeding 400 billion yuan [6][7] - The remaining quota for new special bonds nationwide is less than 1 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 83.8% against the planned 4.4 trillion yuan for the year [6][7] New Policies Released - The Central Committee has published recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the need to expand effective investment and improve investment efficiency [13][14] - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments have released measures to boost service consumption and expand domestic demand, focusing on financial support [13][15] - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued measures to strengthen the cultivation of innovative enterprises in the digital economy [13][16] Pilot Applications - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce have initiated pilot projects for new consumption formats and international consumption environment construction, targeting major cities for support [17][18] - Financial support for pilot cities includes subsidies of up to 4 billion yuan for super-large cities and 2 billion yuan for other cities, distributed in two batches based on performance evaluations [18][19]

Summary of Key Points 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The fiscal revenue growth rate continues to improve, with an enhanced contribution from tax revenues. The overall fiscal expenditure progress is slow, but the decline in infrastructure - related expenditures has narrowed. Government - funded funds show a divergence between revenue and expenditure, with revenue lagging behind expenditure. In the fourth quarter, the implementation of incremental fiscal funds will help the economy operate smoothly, and more incremental policies are still expected [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fiscal Revenue Growth Rate Continues to Improve, Tax Revenue Contribution Increases - The growth rate of general public budget revenue from January to September reached 0.5%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous value, and improved for three consecutive months. The central government's monthly revenue growth rate improved significantly, and the decline in cumulative growth rate narrowed to - 1.2%, while local fiscal revenue maintained positive growth at a cumulative rate of 1.8%. The fiscal revenue growth rate was slightly higher than the annual budget target by 0.1%, but the completion progress was 74.5%, lower than the historical average [11]. - Tax revenue growth significantly supported the improvement of fiscal revenue, while non - tax revenue growth declined sharply, turning into a negative drag on revenue growth. From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of tax revenue was 0.7%, reaching the highest value of the year. Non - tax revenue had negative single - month growth for five consecutive months, and the cumulative growth rate turned slightly negative at - 0.4% [17]. - In terms of tax revenue structure, VAT, corporate income tax, domestic consumption tax, individual income tax, and stamp duty all showed positive growth, while land and real - estate - related tax revenue decline was narrowing [18]. 3.2 Overall Expenditure Progress is Slow, Decline in Infrastructure - Related Expenditure Narrows - From January to September, the year - on - year growth rate of fiscal expenditure was 3.1%, the same as the previous value and lower than the annual budget target of 4.4%. The central government's expenditure growth rate dropped to a new low of 7.3% for the year, while the local government's expenditure growth rate was 2.4%, 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous value. The general public budget expenditure completion progress from January to September was 70.1%, the lowest in the past five years [20]. - In terms of expenditure structure, people's livelihood - related expenditures remained the focus, and infrastructure - related expenditures improved. Social security and employment expenditures maintained a growth rate of 10%, and infrastructure - related expenditures such as energy conservation and environmental protection and transportation had a growth rate close to 20% for two consecutive months [21]. 3.3 Government - Funded Funds' Revenue and Expenditure Diverge, Revenue Lags Behind Expenditure - From January to September, the government - funded funds' revenue decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, lower than the annual budget growth target of 0.7%. The decline in land transfer fees was the main reason for the negative growth. The government - funded funds' expenditure increased by 23.9% year - on - year, higher than the annual budget target of 23.1%. The revenue completion progress was 49.1%, and the expenditure completion progress was 60% [25]. - The issuance of local government special bonds accelerated, with the completion progress of new special bonds in September reaching about 83.6%, still slow in a five - year perspective [25]. 3.4 Incremental Funds are Implemented to Fill Gaps and Expand Investment In September, the National Development and Reform Commission established a new policy - based financial instrument worth 500 billion yuan, and the Agricultural Development Bank of China has disbursed nearly 100 billion yuan. On October 17, the Ministry of Finance issued another 500 billion yuan in carry - over quotas. The implementation of incremental funds will help expand investment and support the stable operation of the economy in the fourth quarter. More incremental policies are still expected [5][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is still "widely bearish," but it is likely to be a bull market. The upper limit of bond market interest rates is clear. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate above 1.8% has absolute value, and the downward space of bond market interest rates is at least 20bp. There are opportunities for the narrowing of the spreads of ultra - long bonds and variety spreads [2]. - The logic of the upper limit of interest rates comes from the weak fundamentals, asset shortage, and the need to cooperate with fiscal policies. The large - scale purchase of 7 - 10y Treasury bonds by large banks in mid - September may reflect the policy intention of maintaining stability in the bond market [2][8]. - Regarding the lower limit of interest rates, the report is firmly bullish. The 1.7% is not an important resistance level. Interest rates are expected to reach new lows under the influence of factors such as the central bank's possible restart of Treasury bond trading, regulatory policies being less than expected, and cross - year allocation [11][12]. - The term spreads in the bond market since 2024 have generally widened, different from the previous narrowing trend. In the future, with the improvement of market sentiment, there will be opportunities for spread compression. The impact of the 500 billion yuan local government debt limit on the bond market is expected to be limited in the short term [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Is It a Sideways Market or a Bull Market? - There are still significant differences in the market. The short - term view of most investors is that the downward space of interest rates is limited. The lower limit of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond rate may be 1.7%, and the upper limit is around the previous high of 1.83% [7]. - The long - term view believes that short - term Sino - US trade frictions are beneficial, and the negative factors in the third quarter are weakening. The short - term view believes that Sino - US relations may improve, the stock market is still strong, and regulatory policies will affect the bond market [7]. - The upper limit of interest rates: The 10 - year Treasury bond above 1.8% and the 30 - year Treasury bond above 2.1% have absolute allocation value. The upper limit comes from the weak fundamentals, asset shortage, and the large - scale purchase of 7 - 10y Treasury bonds by large banks in mid - September, which may be a manifestation of the central bank's intention to maintain stability in the bond market and cooperate with fiscal policies [8]. - The lower limit of interest rates: The report is firmly bullish. The 1.7% is not an important resistance level. Interest rates are expected to reach new lows under the influence of factors such as the central bank's possible restart of Treasury bond trading, regulatory policies being less than expected, and cross - year allocation. In extreme cases, the 10 - year Treasury bond rate can refer to the pricing at the beginning of this year plus points, that is, OMO + 10bp [11][12]. 3.2 How to View Spreads in a Sideways Market? - By tracing the sideways markets since 2022 with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield as the standard, 7 time periods are sorted out. Since 2024, the term spreads in the sideways market have generally widened, mainly because the bond bull market since 2024 is usually accompanied by supply pressure or the central bank's attention to long - term interest rates, making the mid - short end relatively safer and more certain [19][24]. - In terms of variety spreads, the spread between policy - financial bonds and Treasury bonds usually narrows, especially at the long end. The credit spreads have decreased significantly in most sideways markets [25]. - Since the end of August 2025, the spread between 5 - year and 2 - year Treasury bonds has declined, while the spreads between 10 - year and 5 - year, and 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds have increased, and the variety spreads have increased rapidly. The reasons include large - scale purchases of medium - term Treasury bonds by large state - owned banks, the reduction of fund duration by public funds, and the weak buying of ultra - long bonds by large and medium - sized banks [31][33]. - Looking forward, the 30 - year Treasury bond rate has a greater downward space, and the variety spreads may also narrow. Insurance funds may increase their purchases of ultra - long bonds when the Treasury bond rate rebounds above 2.1%. With the improvement of bond market sentiment and the end of the cross - quarter period, the buying power of funds and rural commercial banks may return, driving the compression of the spread between policy - financial bonds and Treasury bonds [36]. 3.3 How to View the Impact of 500 Billion Yuan of Local Government Debt Balance on the Bond Market? - In the absence of other incremental policy linkages, the impact of 50 billion yuan of special bonds on the bond market is limited. In 2022, the interest rate fluctuated upward due to a series of incremental policies, including fiscal, monetary, and structural policies [37][38]. - This 500 billion yuan of funds is likely to be issued in the form of new special bonds. Currently, the balance of general bonds is not large, and the use of this fund is more suitable for new special bonds [43]. 3.4 Bond Market Interest Rates First Rose and Then Fell - This week, the central bank's open - market operations changed from net investment to net withdrawal, but the liquidity in the market became looser. The bond market yield curve flattened as a whole, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield first rose and then fell, rising 0.40bp to 1.82% [3][45]. - The reasons for the fluctuations in bond market interest rates include factors such as "TACO trading," good export performance, increased redemption pressure, market speculation on public fund fee reform, and the possible issuance of local government bonds in advance in 2026 [45]. 3.5 The Scale of Wealth Management Products Slightly Increased - As of October 12, the scale of existing wealth management products reached 30.9 trillion yuan, with a weekly increase of 120.652 billion yuan. From October 6 to October 12, the newly issued wealth management products totaled 14.68 billion yuan [55]. - In the second week of October, the scale of fixed - income products rebounded. By product type, the scale of cash - management products increased by 15.8 billion yuan, and the scale of fixed - income products increased by 41.7 billion yuan. By product risk level, the scale of first - level (low - risk) products increased by 5 billion yuan [59][60]. - The net - breaking rate of wealth management products decreased slightly last week. As of October 15, the average 7 - day annualized yield of 370 money funds was 1.05%, and the average 7 - day annualized yield of 265 cash - management products was 1.35% [60][62]. 3.6 Duration - This week, the duration of public funds decreased at first and then increased. From October 13 to October 17, the duration of public funds increased by 0.035 to 2.382 compared with October 10, and the weekly average was 2.364 [64]. - This week, the divergence of duration decreased, and the market's consensus expectation increased slightly. On October 17, the divergence of public fund duration decreased by 0.014 to 0.321 compared with October 10 [64].