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海澜之家(600398):京东入股公司子公司,看好城市奥莱业务提速
GF SECURITIES· 2026-03-09 10:49
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 6.12 CNY and a target value of 8.65 CNY [4]. Core Views - The company has received a strategic investment from JD.com in its subsidiary, which is expected to accelerate the development of its urban outlet business. This new business model focuses on locations closer to core urban areas, enhancing consumer accessibility and increasing visitor frequency [8]. - The main business of the company remains stable, with new ventures anticipated to achieve rapid growth. The urban outlet business, along with international market expansion and the Adidas FCC business, is expected to drive significant revenue increases [8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.44 CNY, 0.48 CNY, and 0.54 CNY respectively. The company is assigned a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18 times for 2026, leading to a reasonable value estimate of 8.65 CNY per share [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 21,528 million CNY - 2024: 20,957 million CNY (decrease of 2.7%) - 2025: 21,444 million CNY (increase of 2.3%) - 2026: 23,452 million CNY (increase of 9.4%) - 2027: 26,014 million CNY (increase of 10.9%) [2]. - The company's EBITDA is expected to be: - 2023: 5,406 million CNY - 2024: 4,670 million CNY - 2025: 4,591 million CNY - 2026: 4,988 million CNY - 2027: 5,538 million CNY [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2023: 2,952 million CNY - 2024: 2,159 million CNY (decrease of 26.9%) - 2025: 2,104 million CNY (decrease of 2.5%) - 2026: 2,307 million CNY (increase of 9.6%) - 2027: 2,610 million CNY (increase of 13.1%) [2]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be: - 2023: 18.4% - 2024: 12.7% - 2025: 12.2% - 2026: 13.2% - 2027: 14.7% [2].