Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [10]. Core Insights - Baba Food is a leading enterprise in the Chinese steamed bun industry, focusing on both organic growth and external acquisitions, with a continuous increase in store numbers and significant improvements in store quality and efficiency [3][10]. - The company has expanded its catering business by leveraging new products and a robust supply chain, leading to a rising revenue share from this segment [3][10]. - Baba Food is actively exploring cross-industry opportunities, utilizing its supply chain and management capabilities to identify new growth avenues [10]. Company Overview - Baba Food specializes in the research, production, and sales of Chinese pastries, with a diverse product range including self-produced pastries, fillings, and externally sourced foods [7][19]. - The company operates a multi-channel sales model combining direct sales, franchising, and group catering, with the total number of stores increasing from 2,311 in 2017 to 5,685 by mid-2025 [7][19]. - The company has established a strong sales network across various regions, with a focus on the East China market, which remains its primary revenue source [23][25]. Market Dynamics - The national steamed bun market is projected to grow from 704 billion yuan in 2024 to 742 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.4% [8][56]. - The market is shifting from a fragmented model dominated by small family-run shops to a more branded and scaled approach, with leading companies expected to capture a larger market share due to their strong supply chains and digital operations [56][71]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts net profits of 289 million yuan, 315 million yuan, and 350 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.21, 1.32, and 1.46 yuan [10]. - The company has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.1% in revenue from 2016 to 2024, with a notable increase in the share of catering business revenue from 6.0% in 2017 to 22.8% in 2024 [21][22]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its store operations by optimizing equipment and layout to promote a fresh and made-to-order dining experience [37]. - Baba Food has implemented measures to support its franchisees, resulting in a recovery in revenue contributions from franchise stores starting from Q2 2024 [37][42].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, attributed to decreased consumer demand and increased operational costs, leading to a net loss. Company Overview and Financial Indicators - Company Name: Tianjin Guifaxiang 18th Street Mahua Food Co., Ltd. - Stock Code: 002820 - Total Assets: 955.32 million yuan, down 5.16% from the previous year [2] - Revenue: 249.09 million yuan, a decrease of 7.03% year-on-year [2] - Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders: -3.92 million yuan, a decline of 117.25% [2] - Basic Earnings per Share: -0.02 yuan, down 118.18% [2] Business Operations - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of traditional and other leisure foods, with a focus on the "Guifaxiang 18th Street" mahua, recognized as a national intangible cultural heritage [3][4] - The company operates through a combination of direct sales, distributors, supermarkets, and e-commerce channels [3] - The main products include traditional mahua, pastries, and Tianjin-style convenience foods [3] Industry Development - The domestic GDP grew by 5.3% in the first half of the year, while retail sales increased by 5.0%, with the Tianjin region experiencing a decline of 0.7% [3] - The overall competition in the leisure food industry has intensified, with rising online traffic costs and pressure on profitability [3] Performance Analysis - The decline in revenue was influenced by reduced foot traffic and average spending in direct sales channels, as well as decreased income from distributors due to local market disruptions [4] - The company has increased advertising and operational costs, including expenses related to new store openings and digital marketing [4] - Investment income from idle funds decreased due to lower interest rates and reduced investment amounts [4] Retail Business Situation - The company operates 66 direct stores, with 64 in Tianjin, contributing approximately 69% of total revenue [5][6] - New stores were opened in key transportation hubs and urban centers to expand market reach [5] - The company is focusing on enhancing store operations and customer experience through improved management and marketing strategies [5] Brand and Marketing - The brand has been recognized as one of the "First Batch of Chinese Consumer Brands," enhancing its market influence [6] - Marketing efforts included participation in major international events and digital promotions through platforms like Douyin and WeChat [6] - The company is also working on expanding its overseas market presence, with plans for certification and partnerships in Southeast Asia [5][6] Digital Transformation - The company is implementing a digital management system to improve production efficiency and cost management [6] - The focus is on establishing a smart production data platform to enhance operational control and decision-making [6]