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京东健康(06618):4Q25前瞻:强劲的收入增速延续
HTSC· 2026-01-06 03:36
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Health with a target price of HKD 77.40 [7][18]. Core Insights - JD Health is expected to continue strong revenue growth in 4Q25, with a projected year-on-year increase of 22.7% to RMB 20.26 billion, driven by the increasing online penetration of pharmaceuticals and the company's competitive advantages in supply chain management [2][15]. - The company is anticipated to achieve a non-IFRS operating profit of RMB 260 million in 4Q25, reflecting a non-IFRS operating profit margin of 1.3%, an improvement of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the supply iteration of new medical products, the impact of weight-loss drugs entering the medical insurance list, the penetration of AI medical applications, and the expansion of JD Health's O2O business [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - JD Health's total revenue for 4Q25 is expected to grow by 22.7% year-on-year to RMB 20.26 billion, with pharmaceuticals projected to see over 30% growth in GMV [2][15]. - For the full year of 2025, revenue is forecasted to increase by 25% to RMB 72.7 billion, with a non-IFRS operating profit of RMB 4.11 billion, corresponding to a non-IFRS operating profit margin of 5.7%, an improvement of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [2][15]. Offline Business Development - JD Health is set to open over 200 new offline pharmacy stores in the second half of 2025, with 150 stores expected to open in 4Q25, enhancing user reach and brand exposure [3]. - The company's medical insurance payment coverage has expanded to 8 cities, including Shanghai, which is anticipated to drive user penetration and performance growth [3]. New Product Launches and AI Integration - JD Health continues to strengthen partnerships with upstream medical brands, achieving multiple collaborations for new drug launches, thereby enhancing its channel value [4]. - The report notes the positive reception of JD Health's AI doctor, which has achieved a satisfaction rate of 98%, reinforcing its capabilities in internet medical services [4]. Profitability Adjustments - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised by 11.6%, 15.6%, and 22.4% respectively, due to improved revenue expectations and the anticipated release of operating leverage [5][15]. - The target valuation for 2026 has been adjusted to a non-IFRS PE of 30.0x, reflecting a premium over comparable companies, driven by JD Health's efficiency in the pharmaceutical market and its advantages in AI medical applications [18].