2026 年 1 月 06 日│中国香港 互联网 证券研究报告 港股通 京东健康 (6618 HK) 4Q25 前瞻：强劲的收入增速延续 我们预计 4Q25 京东健康有望延续强劲的收入同比增速和利润释放，主要得 益于医药品类线上渗透率的持续提升以及京东健康长期深耕供应链带来的 竞争优势。此外，流感的季节性错位亦或为 4Q25 的收入增长提供短期支持。 我们持续看好公司作为线上医疗电商龙头公司，在推动上游医疗品类供给实 现线上化率提升的过程中强化自身的渠道价值及提升用户钱包份额，这有望 助力其展现稳健的收入复合增速与利润率改善的良好趋势。展望后续，建议 关注：1）医疗新品的供给迭代节奏及其与京东健康线上首发的合作进展；2） 如减肥药等产品进入医保名单后的量价变化趋势；3）AI 医疗应用的渗透率 提升趋势，及对医疗电商需求的潜在拉动；4）京东健康 O2O 业务扩张节 奏，及 B2C 业务医保支付接入进程等。维持"买入"评级。 预计 4Q25 收入与利润有望延续强劲增长 我们预计 4Q25 公司总收入同比增长 22.7%至 202.6 亿元。分品类看，我们 预计药品延续相对强劲表现，GMV 同比增长超 30%，而营 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the pharmaceutical industry in China, with an expected annual growth rate of 7% leading to a market size of $2.1 trillion by 2030 [1][2]. Core Insights - The primary driver of growth in the Chinese pharmaceutical market is the aging population, with the proportion of individuals aged 65 and above expected to rise to 27% by 2040, significantly increasing healthcare spending [1][2]. - The market is primarily funded through health insurance and out-of-pocket expenses, with commercial insurance projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% over the next five years [1][4]. - Innovative drugs, medical devices, healthcare services, and traditional Chinese medicine are identified as high-growth potential segments, with innovative drugs expected to achieve a CAGR of 20% over the next five years [1][5]. Summary by Sections Market Growth and Trends - The Chinese healthcare market is anticipated to add $700 billion in market size over the next five years, reaching $1.4 trillion in 2024 and $2.1 trillion by 2030, driven by an aging population [2]. - By 2024, individuals aged 65 and older will account for 15% of the population, increasing to 27% by 2040, leading to a significant rise in healthcare expenditures [2]. Funding Sources - The main funding sources for the Chinese pharmaceutical market include health insurance, out-of-pocket payments, commercial insurance, social spending, and government funding, with health insurance and out-of-pocket payments being the most significant [4]. Growth Potential in Sub-sectors - The report highlights that innovative drugs, medical devices, healthcare services, and traditional Chinese medicine have substantial growth potential, with innovative drugs projected to capture nearly 60% of the market by 2030 [5]. Biotech and CDMO Developments - Biotech companies are expected to reach breakeven by 2025-2026, with a significant increase in licensing activities, and Chinese innovative drugs now represent one-third of the global pipeline [6][11]. - CDMO companies with high overseas revenue are favored, as the domestic investment environment improves, despite ongoing price competition [8]. International Participation - Chinese pharmaceutical companies are becoming key players in global innovation, with 30% of global clinical trials conducted by Chinese firms in 2024, up from 5% in 2014 [9]. Online Pharmaceutical Sales - The online pharmaceutical market is projected to grow significantly, with a current penetration rate of only 13%, indicating substantial room for growth [17][25].

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 35.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.51%, and a Non-IFRS net profit of 3.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.04%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1] - The company raised its revenue growth guidance for 2025 to 20% and Non-IFRS net profit growth guidance to 15% [1] - The current valuation remains at a moderate historical level, with potential for further expansion due to competitive landscape, high growth rates, and shareholder returns [2] Event Summary - On August 14, 2025, the company announced its mid-year performance, with revenue of 35.29 billion yuan and Non-IFRS net profit of 3.57 billion yuan, both exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1] - The second quarter revenue growth was 23.67%, with adjusted net profit growth of 24.6% year-on-year [1] - The company’s GMV growth rate significantly outpaced the industry, attributed to its supply chain advantages and the shift of market share from offline pharmacies to online [1] Financial Performance - The company’s revenue growth for the first half of 2025 was driven by nearly 30% growth in pharmaceuticals, high-teens growth in health products, and low-teens growth in medical devices, with market share increasing in all three categories [1] - The net profit increase was influenced by stable interest income, better-than-expected revenue growth, and rising gross margins [1] - The company plans to invest approximately 300 million yuan in instant retail/pharmacy-related initiatives for the year, with cautious spending due to competition [1] Future Outlook - The company expects to maintain a steady dividend policy, with progress on tax identity changes in Hong Kong [1] - B2C health insurance contributions to growth are currently limited, but there is potential for future growth [1] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 69.79 billion yuan and 79.30 billion yuan, respectively, with Non-IFRS net profits of 5.52 billion yuan and 5.98 billion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - JD Health's stock surged over 10% following the release of its interim results, reflecting strong revenue growth and increased online penetration in the pharmaceutical and health product sectors [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the six months ending June 30, 2025, JD Health reported revenue of RMB 35.29 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.5% [1] - Non-IFRS profit for the same period was RMB 3.57 billion, up 35% year-on-year [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 2.596 billion, representing a 27.45% increase year-on-year [1] - Basic earnings per share were RMB 0.82 [1] Group 2: Revenue Breakdown - Revenue for the three months ending June 30, 2025, increased by 23.7% to RMB 18.6 billion compared to the previous three months [1] - Revenue from the sale of pharmaceutical and health products rose by 22.7% from RMB 23.9 billion to RMB 29.3 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2025 [1] - The growth in product revenue was driven by an increase in active user numbers, additional purchases by users, and improved online penetration of pharmaceutical and health product sales [1] Group 3: Service Revenue - Service revenue from online platforms and digital marketing increased by 34.4% from RMB 4.4 billion to RMB 6 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2025 [2] - The growth in service revenue was primarily due to an increase in digital marketing service fees, attributed to a rise in the number of advertisers on the platform [2]