瑞银展望 2026：医药行业投资展望 20251117 摘要 中国医药市场预计以 7%的年化增长率增长，至 2.1 万亿美元，主要驱 动力为人口老龄化，预计 2040 年 65 岁及以上人口将占 27%，导致医 疗保健支出增加，尤其是在 75 岁以上人群中。 中国医药市场资金主要来源于医保和自费，商业保险作为新兴市场预计 未来 5 年复合增长率为 15%，国家医保未来 5 年内预计以 7.2%的年化 增速扩张，医保结余相对健康。 创新药、创新医疗器械、医疗服务和中药在中国医药市场中具有较高增 长潜力，创新药未来 5 年复合增长率预计达到 20%，到 2030 年预计接 近 60%。 生物科技企业将在 2025 年至 2026 年迎来盈亏平衡，对外授权活动显 著增加，中国创新药已占全球管线储备的 1/3，新产品和新适应症获批 方面涵盖多种分子形式。 看好海外收入占比较高的 CDMO 企业，中国国内投融资环境有所恢复， 研发活动有所增加，但价格竞争压力依然存在，中国投融资数据同比增 长超过 100%，较 2019 年水平提升 33%。 Q&A 中国医药市场在未来 5 至 10 年的发展趋势如何？ 根据瑞银证券的研 ...

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 35.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.51%, and a Non-IFRS net profit of 3.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.04%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1] - The company raised its revenue growth guidance for 2025 to 20% and Non-IFRS net profit growth guidance to 15% [1] - The current valuation remains at a moderate historical level, with potential for further expansion due to competitive landscape, high growth rates, and shareholder returns [2] Event Summary - On August 14, 2025, the company announced its mid-year performance, with revenue of 35.29 billion yuan and Non-IFRS net profit of 3.57 billion yuan, both exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1] - The second quarter revenue growth was 23.67%, with adjusted net profit growth of 24.6% year-on-year [1] - The company’s GMV growth rate significantly outpaced the industry, attributed to its supply chain advantages and the shift of market share from offline pharmacies to online [1] Financial Performance - The company’s revenue growth for the first half of 2025 was driven by nearly 30% growth in pharmaceuticals, high-teens growth in health products, and low-teens growth in medical devices, with market share increasing in all three categories [1] - The net profit increase was influenced by stable interest income, better-than-expected revenue growth, and rising gross margins [1] - The company plans to invest approximately 300 million yuan in instant retail/pharmacy-related initiatives for the year, with cautious spending due to competition [1] Future Outlook - The company expects to maintain a steady dividend policy, with progress on tax identity changes in Hong Kong [1] - B2C health insurance contributions to growth are currently limited, but there is potential for future growth [1] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 69.79 billion yuan and 79.30 billion yuan, respectively, with Non-IFRS net profits of 5.52 billion yuan and 5.98 billion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - JD Health's stock surged over 10% following the release of its interim results, reflecting strong revenue growth and increased online penetration in the pharmaceutical and health product sectors [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the six months ending June 30, 2025, JD Health reported revenue of RMB 35.29 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.5% [1] - Non-IFRS profit for the same period was RMB 3.57 billion, up 35% year-on-year [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 2.596 billion, representing a 27.45% increase year-on-year [1] - Basic earnings per share were RMB 0.82 [1] Group 2: Revenue Breakdown - Revenue for the three months ending June 30, 2025, increased by 23.7% to RMB 18.6 billion compared to the previous three months [1] - Revenue from the sale of pharmaceutical and health products rose by 22.7% from RMB 23.9 billion to RMB 29.3 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2025 [1] - The growth in product revenue was driven by an increase in active user numbers, additional purchases by users, and improved online penetration of pharmaceutical and health product sales [1] Group 3: Service Revenue - Service revenue from online platforms and digital marketing increased by 34.4% from RMB 4.4 billion to RMB 6 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2025 [2] - The growth in service revenue was primarily due to an increase in digital marketing service fees, attributed to a rise in the number of advertisers on the platform [2]