□本报记者 王鹤静 在5月23日举办的第十二届富国论坛上，来自富国基金的主动权益、固定收益、量化三大投研团队，围 绕震荡市国内投资新模式、ETF智能化升级、低利率环境兼顾收益与回撤等众多市场关注的热门议题进 行了深入探讨。 富国基金资深投研人士表示，在全行业库存低位触发补库存周期以及二手房回暖带动地产链修复等因素 驱动下，国内市场的盈利回升周期已经启动。港股市场尽管面临外资流出压力，但南向资金持续流入与 上市公司回购加码为市场提供了韧性支撑。 盈利回升周期已经启动 富国基金权益研究部总经理陈杰表示，在全行业库存低位触发补库存周期以及二手房回暖带动地产链修 复等因素驱动下，国内市场的盈利回升周期已经启动。自2024年四季度风险偏好见顶回落以来，叠加中 国产业转型"突围"的大背景，如AI研发与高端制造双突破、产业集群优势强化，市场情绪有望转向乐 观。 李金柳表示，随着期限利差、信用利差压缩到历史偏窄的位置，组合策略也需要在安全边际和择时博弈 之间做好平衡，力求将收益率曲线管理得更符合投资者的需求。 随着消费政策加码，叠加盈利基数效应，富国消费精选30基金经理周文波预计，今年下半年消费板块或 迎来修复窗口。一方面， ...

Core Insights - The rapid development of index investment and the diversification of index fund products are highlighted, with a focus on the opportunities and strategies in the ETF era [1][6] - The forum featured discussions on ETF innovations, investment opportunities in the Hong Kong stock market, and the rise of Smart Beta strategies [2][3][4] Group 1: ETF Development and Trends - The scale of passive equity funds in China is projected to reach 4.6 trillion yuan by 2024, surpassing active equity funds for the first time, indicating a new era of ETF innovation [2] - The core of ETF innovation in China lies in optimizing constituent stocks through quantitative strategies, which is expected to be a significant direction for the future [2] - The ETF investment decision system developed by the company utilizes a combination of market analysis, style rotation, and multi-model verification to enhance investment efficiency [2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Hong Kong Stocks - The company identifies five core sectors in the Hong Kong stock market: internet, innovative pharmaceuticals, smart vehicles, consumer goods, and dividend assets, which present significant structural opportunities [3] - The acceleration of AI commercialization is reshaping the valuations of leading internet companies, while innovative pharmaceuticals are expanding into new markets [3] - The Hang Seng Index ETF combines dividend and technology attributes, making it an ideal choice for long-term asset allocation [3] Group 3: Smart Beta Strategies - The A-share Smart Beta product scale reached 150.715 billion yuan by Q1 2025, reflecting rapid growth in this investment strategy [4] - Smart Beta strategies are breaking the boundaries between active and passive investments, offering low-cost and stable style advantages [4] - The global Smart Beta ETF market is projected to reach 2.24 trillion USD by 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 21.4%, driven by systematic applications of factor exposure [4] Group 4: Company Initiatives and Future Outlook - The company has developed a comprehensive product matrix covering multiple assets and strategies, catering to diverse investor needs [5] - The introduction of the "E起富" WeChat mini-program aims to provide users with enhanced investment decision-making support [5] - The ETF market is transitioning from simple scale expansion to refined strategy competition, with Smart Beta innovations and the exploration of scarce assets in Hong Kong being key focus areas [6]