Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of August 8, the duration strategy was neutral, with medium - long - term duration portfolios performing slightly better than dumbbell - shaped ones. Long - term allocation sentiment was low, as the excess returns of ultra - long - term strategies were generally negative, and the willingness to extend duration was not strong [2][12]. - The trading duration of mainstream varieties was marginally shortened. As of August 10, the weighted trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds decreased, and some financial bonds were at low historical levels [3][16]. - As of August 11, 2025, the valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise industrial bonds and real - estate bonds were generally higher than other varieties. Most non - financial and non - real - estate industrial bond yields declined compared to the previous week, and more than half of financial bond yields decreased [4][20]. - The number of ultra - long - term credit bond transactions significantly declined. From August 4 - 8, 2025, the combined number of transactions of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds with a term of 7 years and above dropped from 515 to 389. The yields of some bonds were changing, with the yield spread between the most active 7 - 10 - year industrial bonds and 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds narrowing [5][24]. - The increase of local government bond indices was less than that of treasury bonds of the same term. Last week, the 7 - 10 - year and over - 10 - year local government bond indices rose 0.09% and 0.01% respectively, underperforming treasury bonds of the same term but outperforming ultra - long - term credit bonds [6][27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Quantified Credit Strategy - As of August 8, the duration strategy was neutral. Medium - long - term duration portfolios had better performance, with return deviations from the benchmark within 4bp. The short - end sinking strategy of urban investment bonds had a negative deviation of over 5bp, and the excess returns of urban investment duration and dumbbell - shaped strategies were only 1.2bp and 0.2bp respectively. Ultra - long - term strategies had negative excess returns, especially for industrial and secondary ultra - long - term combinations, with readings below - 10bp [2][12]. 3.2 Variety Duration Tracking - As of August 10, the weighted trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 2.00 years and 2.60 years respectively. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 4.20 years, 3.48 years, and 3.13 years respectively, with bank perpetual bonds at a low historical level. Among other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities sub - bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.54 years, 2.17 years, 2.71 years, and 1.37 years respectively, with some at low historical quantiles and leasing company bonds at a high historical quantile [3][16]. 3.3 Coupon Asset Heat Map - As of August 11, 2025, private enterprise industrial bonds and real - estate bonds had higher valuation yields and spreads. Non - financial and non - real - estate industrial bond yields mostly declined compared to the previous week. Among financial bonds, leasing company bonds, urban and rural commercial bank capital replenishment tools, and securities sub - bonds had higher valuation yields and spreads. More than half of financial bond yields decreased. The interest rates of general commercial financial bonds fluctuated within a narrow range (no more than 1.5BP), and the yields of some 1 - year - within urban and rural commercial bank perpetual bonds decreased significantly, with the yield of 1 - year - within urban commercial bank perpetual bonds dropping by more than 5BP [4][20]. 3.4 Ultra - long - term Credit Bond Micro - tracking - Since July, the lack of floating profits in ultra - long - term credit bonds and the difficulty in controlling drawdowns led to a significant decrease in trading demand. From August 4 - 8, 2025, the combined number of transactions of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds with a term of 7 years and above decreased from 515 to 389. The average trading yield of the most active 7 - 10 - year industrial bonds was marginally repaired, and the spread with 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds narrowed to 22bp, but the yields of over - 10 - year general credit bonds were still rising [5][24]. 3.5 Local Government Bond Supply and Trading Tracking - Last week, the 7 - 10 - year and over - 10 - year local government bond indices rose 0.09% and 0.01% respectively, less than the increase of treasury bonds of the same term but better than the overall decline of ultra - long - term credit bonds [6][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market witnessed a key policy adjustment from August 4 - 8, 2025. The new tax policy resumed the collection of VAT on the interest income of government bonds and financial bonds issued after August 8, leading to an expectation of an expanded spread between new and old bonds. Fundamental data such as flat CPI, a 3.6% decline in PPI, and a drop in PMI in July, along with the cooling of anti - involution market sentiment, support the bullish logic of the bond market. The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds is expected to fall to around 1.65%, and the yield of 5 - year secondary capital bonds of national and joint - stock banks may decline to 1.9%. Although the new tax policy exerts some pressure on new bonds, it forms a downward yield logic for old bonds, especially creating a strong incentive for institutions such as bank self - operations to scramble for old bonds. Credit bonds not affected by the new policy will also be indirectly benefited. Therefore, the current bond market bullish trend is considered the path of least resistance. In terms of credit strategies, it is recommended to increase the allocation of old financial bonds in mid - to - late August and actively capture capital gains opportunities brought about by the decline in credit bond yields [2][6]. - The tax - exemption advantage of non - financial credit bonds may lower the credit spread center. After the Ministry of Finance resumed the collection of VAT on the interest income of interest - rate bonds, the after - tax yield of non - financial credit bonds became more attractive due to their tax - exemption status, directly lowering the credit spread center. However, considering the sharing game of tax costs between issuers and investors, the decline in the spread may be less than the theoretical value. It is estimated that the yield of credit bonds may decline by 2 - 5bp, and in the long run, the allocation value of credit bonds will increase, but investors need to be vigilant about the phased disturbance of the new issuance interest rate of interest - rate bonds on the comparison advantage of credit bonds [2][7]. - The duration strategy adheres to the "neutral as the anchor". The fluctuation of market risk preference limits the stretching space of duration, and a 3 - 4 - year neutral duration is the optimal solution that combines offense and defense. Medium - duration credit bonds are less sensitive to capital interest rates and can avoid the repeated disturbances of the capital market in August. At the same time, medium - duration bonds have sufficient repair space and combine odds and liquidity. Long - duration varieties are restricted by the upward shift of the risk premium center after adjustment, supply pressure, and the cautious attitude of institutions, and it may be difficult to replicate the trend - like market of last year. It is recommended to appropriately control positions [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Yield and Spread Overview - Yield and Changes of Each Term - The report presents the yields, weekly changes, and historical quantiles of various bond types (including treasury bonds, national development bonds, local government bonds, etc.) at different terms (0.5Y, 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 5Y). For example, the 0.5 - year treasury bond yield is 1.34%, showing a - 3.4bp change compared to last week, with a historical quantile of 5.6% [15]. Yield and Spread Overview - Spread and Changes of Each Term - It shows the credit spreads, weekly changes, and historical quantiles of various bond types at different terms. For instance, the 0.5 - year credit spread of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 16bp, with a - 5.7bp change compared to last week and a historical quantile of 1.1% [17]. Credit Bond Yield and Spread by Category (Hermite Algorithm) - Urban Investment Bond Yield and Spread by Region Yield and Changes of Each Term - Displays the yields, weekly changes, and historical quantiles of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in each province at different terms. For example, the 0.5 - year yield of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in Anhui is 1.70%, with a - 6.4bp change compared to last week and a historical quantile of 0.0% [20]. Spread and Changes of Each Term - Presents the credit spreads, weekly changes, and historical quantiles of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in each province at different terms. For example, the 0.5 - year credit spread of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in Anhui is 23.66bp, with a - 6.4bp change compared to last week and a historical quantile of 0.0% [23]. Yield and Changes of Each Implicit Rating - Shows the yields, weekly changes, and historical quantiles of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in each province at different implicit ratings. For example, the AAA - rated 0.5 - year yield of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in Anhui is 1.73%, with a - 2.6bp change compared to last week and a historical quantile of 1.0% [28]. Spread and Changes of Each Implicit Rating - Displays the credit spreads, weekly changes, and historical quantiles of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in each province at different implicit ratings. For example, the AAA - rated 0.5 - year credit spread of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in Anhui is 23.10bp, with a - 2.5bp change compared to last week and a historical quantile of 21.5% [33]. Yield and Changes of Each Administrative Level - Presents the yields, weekly changes, and historical quantiles of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds at different administrative levels in each province. For example, the provincial - level 0.5 - year yield of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in Anhui is 1.72%, with a - 2.1bp change compared to last week and a historical quantile of 1.0% [38].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.12%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices fell by 0.13% and 0.52% respectively, and the North China 50 Index rose by 0.43% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 1.2062 trillion yuan, an increase of 132.7 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Bond Market Dynamics - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 160.7 billion yuan at a stable interest rate of 1.40% [1] - The yields on major bonds showed slight fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 0.5 basis points to 1.699%, while the 10-year policy bank bond yield increased by 0.1 basis points to 1.796% [1] - The bond market has experienced significant volatility, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from a low of 1.64% in early July to a peak of 1.75% at the end of July before retreating [1] Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts suggest that despite a hot equity market, the underlying economic fundamentals remain weak, leading to a cautious outlook for the bond market, which is expected to fluctuate within a range of 1.6% to 1.8% for the 10-year government bond yield [2] - The sentiment in the market is more stable compared to the redemption environment of 2022, with institutional views leaning towards a bullish stance [2] - Huaxi Securities indicates that opportunities for a bond bull market are emerging, recommending extending duration positions [3] Strategic Insights - Analysts recommend maintaining a neutral to slightly high duration strategy in the bond market, as recent policy expectations have cooled and economic indicators suggest a weak reality [4] - The current market risk appetite has increased, limiting the potential for significant interest rate declines, while also constraining the upward movement of rates due to the unstable economic fundamentals [4] - The 30-year government bond ETF, launched in March 2024, is highlighted as a significant investment vehicle, tracking the performance of the 30-year government bond index [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond bull market is not over yet as the economic recovery pace is slowing down, inflation has limited upward elasticity, and the growth of social financing is weakening in the second half of 2025 [1][15]. - In the context of a long - term low - interest - rate environment and low credit spreads in China, the duration strategy becomes crucial in bond investment, and 10 - year treasury bonds are a relatively balanced choice [2]. - It is advisable to invest in long - duration treasury bond ETFs. Bond - type passive products are in the fast lane of development, and the 10 - year treasury bond ETF is a powerful tool for investors [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Observing the Situation: Economic Recovery Pace Slows Down, Bond Bull Market Continues - **2025 H1 Bond Market Performance**: The bond market first declined and then rose, with the turning point in March. From the beginning of the year to mid - March, it adjusted significantly due to exchange - rate stabilization and tight funds. In late March, it recovered due to tariff frictions. In April and May, it was affected by the central bank's double cuts and the Geneva talks, showing an overall oscillatory upward trend. In June, it oscillated downward and strengthened slightly with the central bank's signal of liquidity support [1][12][13]. - **2025 H2 Economic Outlook**: The economic recovery slope is likely to slow down, mainly because the "export rush" in H1 may lead to an overdraft effect on H2 exports, consumption may lose policy support, and the real - estate investment has not shown significant improvement. Prices are at the bottom with limited upward elasticity, and the social financing stock growth rate is likely to decline in Q3 and Q4 [15][21][22]. 2. Trend: Low - Interest - Rate Environment, Duration is King - **Long - Term Low - Interest - Rate Environment**: China's economic transformation and demographic changes are likely to lead to a long - term low - interest - rate environment. The decline in the traditional economic driving forces and the imbalance between capital supply and demand caused by population aging are the main reasons [28]. - **Importance of Duration Strategy**: In a low - interest - rate environment, adding long - duration bonds is the core to obtain term premiums. Compared with short - term and ultra - long - term treasury bonds, 10 - year treasury bonds have relatively balanced performance in terms of return and risk. Among different bond types, treasury bonds have advantages in terms of tax and liquidity [2][31][40]. 3. Seizing the Opportunity: Allocating Long - Duration Treasury Bond ETFs - **Development of Bond ETFs**: The performance gap between active and passive bond products is narrowing, and the bond - type passive products are in a golden development period. The scale of bond ETFs has reached new highs this year. Compared with overseas markets, domestic bond ETFs have broad development space [3][44][45]. - **Advantages of Bond ETFs**: Bond ETFs have lower fees, higher transparency, and more flexible trading mechanisms. They support T + 0 trading, can be leveraged through pledge, and have lower management and custody fees [3][50]. - **10 - Year Treasury Bond ETF**: It is the only 10 - year treasury bond ETF in the domestic market, providing a powerful tool for investors to invest in 10 - year treasury bonds. Managed by Wang Yu and Wang Zhenyang, it has excellent historical performance and good liquidity [3][57][60]. - **Cathay Fund**: As an ETF pioneer, Cathay Fund has a rich variety of ETF products, covering different asset classes. As of July 18, 2025, it has 69 ETFs with a total scale of 186.626 billion yuan, providing investors with a wide range of choices [66].

Overview - The performance of interest rate bond funds has been notably superior in Q2 2025, with significant contributions from financial-style bond funds and some standout credit bond funds [1][14][19] - The bond market in Q2 2025 exhibited characteristics of "low interest rates and rapid fluctuations," with government bonds outperforming other types of bonds [14][19] Fund Shares - The total share of bond funds in the market saw a marginal increase in Q2 2025 compared to Q1, with over half of the top-performing medium to long-term bond funds also experiencing slight growth [2][26] - Notable increases in shares were observed in funds such as Penghua Fengxiang, Dongfang Zhenbao Pure Bond A, and Tianhong Qixiang A, each expanding by over 3 billion shares in a single quarter [2][26] Net Value - The net value growth of top-performing bond funds in Q2 2025 significantly outperformed that of Q1 2025, with nearly 70% of the growth in Q2 attributed to changes in April [3][30][33] - The sample of top-performing bond funds showed a clear recovery in net value, contrasting with the negative growth rates seen in Q1 [30][33] Bond Type Allocation - By the end of Q2 2025, top-performing bond funds reduced their holdings in interest rate and credit bonds while slightly increasing their positions in certificates of deposit [4][36] - Within credit bonds, there was a notable increase in holdings of financial and corporate bonds, while holdings of medium-term notes and short-term financing bonds were reduced [4][36] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for Q2 2025 focused on extending duration, reducing leverage, and making moderate downward adjustments [5][58] - The average duration of the bond fund portfolios increased, with top-performing funds maintaining a duration above the market average [5][48][52] - The average leverage ratio for top-performing bond funds slightly decreased to 122.43% in Q2 2025 [58] Summary and Outlook - Looking ahead, the bond market is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend in Q3, with a focus on the flexibility of duration management in September [6][65] - The strategy of extending duration remains favorable, particularly if the positive conditions persist, with key targets for 10Y and 30Y government bonds set at 1.7% and 1.9% respectively [6][65] - For credit bonds, strategies include focusing on short-duration assets and high liquidity long bonds to enhance returns [6][65]

Market Overview - The bond market remains unclear, with long-term interest rates showing a V-shaped trend, indicating a state of stagnation where rates neither rise nor fall significantly[1] - From July 14-18, the 10-year government bond yield decreased to 1.66% (-0.2bp), while the 30-year bond yield fell to 1.87% (-0.3bp)[9] Funding Conditions - During the major tax payment week, interbank overnight and 7-day funding rates reached temporary highs of 1.57% and 1.58%, raising concerns about the sustainability of a loose monetary environment[2] - The net payment of government bonds during this period was 428.8 billion yuan, contributing to a significant funding gap[20] Market Sentiment - Recent increases in market risk appetite are reflected in the rising financing balance in the stock market, with new funds continuously entering[3] - The expectation of policy support has strengthened, particularly with recent favorable signals from U.S. officials regarding tariffs on China[3] Investment Strategy - Given the current market conditions, institutions are advised to maintain a cautious approach, avoiding aggressive duration increases while closely following market trends[4] - The bond market may develop in two directions: a potential steepening of the yield curve driven by short-term rate declines and a focus on coupon income as funding rates decrease[30] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected adjustments in monetary policy, liquidity changes, and fiscal policy shifts that could impact market stability[5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the evolution of fixed income investment strategies at Debon Fund under the leadership of Zou Zhou, emphasizing the importance of adapting to changing market conditions and the need for precise liquidity management to optimize returns for investors [1][2][6]. Investment Strategy - Zou Zhou has developed a diversified fixed income product matrix, covering various types of bonds including low volatility, medium volatility, and dual bonds, which has proven resilient through extreme market conditions [1][2]. - The investment strategy for products like Debon Short Bond and Debon Rui Xing Bond focuses on using credit bonds for stable coupon income while leveraging more liquid interest rate bonds for capital gains [1][4]. - The approach to portfolio management includes adjusting the structure and timing of credit and interest rate bonds to meet different risk-return profiles of investors [4][8]. Market Adaptation - Zou Zhou emphasizes the necessity of continuously updating investment knowledge in response to market changes, particularly in a low interest rate environment where traditional investment logic may no longer apply [2][3]. - The shift in market dynamics has led to a preference for long-end interest rates over short-end rates, which were previously considered safer but have shown negative carry [2][3]. Liquidity Management - Effective liquidity management is crucial, especially for open-ended funds, as it directly impacts investment operations [5]. - Zou Zhou's strategy involves maintaining sufficient liquidity to capitalize on market mispricings and ensuring that the portfolio can withstand fluctuations in the market [5][8]. Technical Analysis - The incorporation of technical analysis into investment decision-making has increased, allowing for better timing and positioning in the market [7][8]. - The current market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of continued support from monetary policy, which is seen as a key factor for maintaining a bullish outlook on the bond market [7][8]. Product Development - Debon Fund's fixed income product line has evolved into a multi-strategy framework, aiming to cater to various investor preferences through differentiated risk-return profiles [8]. - The team is committed to enhancing the precision of product management to improve the overall investor experience [8].

Group 1 - The simulated portfolio's returns have declined this week, with credit style portfolios experiencing smaller drawdowns compared to interest rate style portfolios. The weekly returns for the industrial ultra-long and municipal short-end sinking strategies were -0.1% and -0.13% respectively [2][14] - In the credit style portfolio, the industrial ultra-long and broker debt sinking strategies were among the few that still had positive returns, recording 0.1% and 0.03% respectively [2][15] - The average weekly return for the credit style time deposit heavy combination fell to -0.01%, with a controllable decline compared to the previous week. The short-duration combinations demonstrated strong volatility resistance [2][17] Group 2 - The coupon income from municipal heavy strategies has dropped to a low point, making it difficult to cover weekly capital gains losses. Most municipal heavy combinations have seen their annualized coupon income fall below 1.9% [3][24] - The coupon contributions from the credit style combinations have generally turned negative, particularly for the municipal dumbbell and secondary debt duration strategies, which fell into the -35% to -30% range [3][24] Group 3 - In the past four weeks, broker debt strategies have gained favor, with cumulative excess returns for broker debt duration, municipal dumbbell, and broker debt sinking strategies at 18.5bp, 15.6bp, and 12.4bp respectively [4][28] - The broker debt duration strategy has achieved a cumulative return of 1.92% since the second quarter, ranking just below the municipal dumbbell strategy, which is around 1.98% [4][28] - Short-duration strategies have outperformed the mid-to-long-term benchmarks, with the municipal short-end sinking strategy exceeding the mid-to-long-term benchmark by the largest margin since May [4][30]

Group 1: Portfolio Strategy Performance Tracking - The simulated portfolio returns have rebounded, with significant increases in credit positions. The industrial ultra-long and secondary ultra-long strategy combinations in the interest rate style portfolio both recorded returns around 0.15% [2][14] - In the credit style portfolio, the industrial ultra-long and secondary ultra-long strategy combinations achieved returns of 0.41% each, leading the performance [2][15] - The weekly average return of the credit style time deposit heavy combination rose to 0.14%, an increase of 9.3 basis points compared to the previous week, while the city investment heavy combination's average weekly return increased to 0.23%, up over 20 basis points from last week [2][18] Group 2: Sources of Returns - The interest income from various strategy combinations has slightly rebounded, with most strategies showing an increase in interest income. The city investment short-end sinking and secondary debt sinking strategies saw interest income increases of approximately 0.04 basis points [3][27] - The annualized interest income for most combinations remains below 2%, except for the city investment short-end sinking and barbell combinations, which are still above 1.95% [3][27] - The contribution of interest income in credit style combinations generally falls within the range of 10% to 25%, with capital gains being the primary source of returns, particularly for the city investment bullet-type and secondary debt duration combinations, where interest contributions dropped to around 13% [3][27] Group 3: Credit Strategy Excess Return Tracking - Over the past four weeks, the cumulative excess return difference between duration strategies and sinking strategies has widened. The cumulative excess returns for city investment barbell, city investment duration, and broker debt duration strategy combinations were 33.6 basis points, 7.4 basis points, and 5.8 basis points, respectively [4][31] - The excess returns for short-end strategies have decreased, with the time deposit strategy dropping to around -1.6 basis points, while the city investment sinking strategy slightly surpassed the benchmark [4][34] - The excess returns for ultra-long strategies have rebounded to levels seen in early June, with the secondary ultra-long strategy combination's excess return rising to over 17 basis points this week, contrasting with the negative readings from the previous three weeks [4][34]

Report Information - Report Title: What are the Patterns in Credit Bond Transactions in the Past Year? — One of the Series on Analyzing Bonds through Volatility [1] - Analyst: Du Jian, CFA from Zheshang Fixed Income [1] - Date: June 27, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes the indicators for observing secondary - market credit bond transactions and the patterns in credit bond transactions over the past year, including increased preference for second - tier and perpetual (二永) bonds, reduced sustainability of the duration strategy, the potential of the deviation of 二永 bonds from valuation in trading as a leading indicator of yields, and increased selling pressure on long - duration credit bonds during adjustments [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Through which indicators to observe credit bond secondary transactions? - "Price" indicators: Broker transactions can collect a large amount of market trading information. After filtering out invalid quotes, they provide the best price to customers, reflecting comprehensive price information. Suitable for constructing price indicators such as trading deviation, trading yield, and high - valuation trading ratio [4][8] - "Volume" indicators: Traders use brokers to find prices and trading counterparts and then complete transactions on the China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS) or exchange platforms. Platform transactions can fully reflect the specific scale of trading volume, suitable for constructing volume indicators such as trading duration and turnover rate [4][8] 3.2成交规律一：对二永债的偏好大幅提升 - Since July 2024, the trading activity of credit bonds has significantly increased compared to previous years, with the increase in trading volume mainly in 二永 bonds. The reasons are that 二永 bonds are interest - rate amplifiers, facilitating capital gain speculation in a strong downward - interest - rate market, and investors prefer 二永 bonds for their better liquidity during market adjustments. Investors' preference is mainly concentrated on state - owned and joint - stock bank 二永 bonds [12] 3.3成交规律二：久期策略持续性降低 - Since August 2024, long - duration credit bonds have shown a "fast - up - fast - down" pattern, with liquidity issues during corrections. They failed to provide stable excess returns as in 2023 - H1 2024. The trading duration centers of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and 二永 bonds have remained at 2.5 years, 3 years, and 3.5 years respectively [13] 3.4成交规律二：近期机构对于城投、产业拉久期诉求高于二永 - In recent duration strategies, the market has focused on extending the duration of medium - and high - grade urban investment and industrial bonds, while the trading duration of state - owned and joint - stock bank 二永 bonds has not significantly increased. This is because the trading duration of 二永 bonds is already high, and the market also wants to balance coupon income. Since March, the yield of short - duration credit bonds has dropped too fast, and since June, it has been difficult for institutions to obtain short - term bonds with a yield above 2%, leading to passive extension of duration to make up for the lack of coupon income [17][18][19] 3.5成交规律三：二永债偏离估值成交幅度或可视作收益率领先指标 - The trading deviation of 二永 bonds from valuation generally leads credit bond yields by 1 - 3 trading days. In the past year, this indicator led the turning points of credit bond yields on September 26, 2024, October 9, 2024, and January 2 - 3, 2025 [25] 3.6成交规律四：调整期间长久期信用债抛售压力加大 - Since 2024, long - duration credit bonds have seen their liquidity issues magnified during market adjustments, with a significantly higher trading deviation than short - duration credit bonds. In 2023, the trading deviation of 二永 bonds across all durations was around 1bp, and the average trading price of general credit bonds over 5 years was even 0.5bp lower than the valuation. In 2024, the high - valuation trading ratio of long - term bonds was higher than that of short - term bonds [29][31][37]