BY TYLER DURDEN FRIDAY,FEB 20,2026-02:25 AM 当前的交易环境中，有好消息、坏消息，还有糟糕的消息。 尽管对冲基⾦在1⽉份取得了强劲的回报，但近⼏周的表现变得更加波动（尤其是在美国）。 ⼤约两周前，我们指出了对冲基⾦的去杠杆化以及反弹的可能性。反弹确实发⽣了，但（对于标普 500指数⽽⾔）再次在7000点左右的"伽⻢墙"附近遇阻…… ⾼盛警告称，尽管对冲基⾦出现历史性去杠杆，但 痛苦交易尚未结束 2026/2/20 09:51 Goldman Warns Pain-Trade Not Over Despite Historic Hedge Fund Degrossing | ZeroHedge 那么我们现在处于什么位置？ 好消息——去总规模化已经开始 ⾼盛交易员指出，在业绩背景更具挑战性且技术⾯更严峻的情况下，对冲基⾦已转向更具防御性的 策略，本⽉迄今净卖出美国股票的速度达到2025年3⽉以来最快。 过去⼏天，波动率指数（VIX）的到期似乎让昨⽇上午出现了1%的短暂反弹，但这波反弹在6900 点戛然⽽⽌。 在6900点时，我们看到标普看涨期权出现⼤量抛售，这最终在下午中 ...

Group 1 - The financial markets are exhibiting contradictory characteristics, with persistent investor anxiety due to high inflation and ongoing policy uncertainties, yet the US stock market has shown an increase this year [2] - The S&P 500 index experienced a significant decline of 20% at its lowest point earlier this year, coinciding with the announcement of a protectionist trade policy in April [2] - Various policy uncertainties, including spending cuts, expanding US deficits, and immigration policies, are contributing to investor unease, alongside warning signs such as rising credit card default rates and weakened consumer data [2][3] Group 2 - Stubborn inflation remains a major concern, with central banks, including the Federal Reserve, indicating a need to address inflation despite growth risks [3] - Geopolitical tensions globally, including wars and climate-sensitive issues, are exacerbating uncertainty, potentially putting risk assets under pressure again [3] - The current market environment prompts a reevaluation of capital market expectations, suggesting that many portfolios may benefit from alternative sources of returns and diversification strategies, particularly hedge fund strategies [3][4] Group 3 - There are strong economic reasons for investors to consider diversifying their portfolios with strategies like hedge funds, as conditions for achieving stable, low-correlated, alpha-driven returns have significantly improved [4] - The differentiation in returns and increased macroeconomic volatility are driving changes in investment strategies, highlighting the need for diversification [4][5] - In the context of rising and persistent inflation, traditional bonds may not always serve as effective hedges, leading investors to seek strategies that provide expected diversification benefits [5]