在投资者偏好方面，约有71%的受访者表示，他们更愿意将退休金投资于美国股市的其他部分，而 非"七巨头"，这种偏好自2024年7月以来大致保持稳定。展望2026年，受访者对市场回报的预期较为审 慎，预计美股七巨头明年平均回报率约为7%，标普500 指数平均涨幅接近7%，这是该调查过去4年来录 得的最强劲展望。 格隆汇12月18日｜根据德意志银行对全球投资者和市场参与者进行的最新全球市场调查，与人工智能 (AI)相关的估值风险，已成为2026年市场稳定性面临的最大单一威胁。有高达57%的受访者认为，由于 对 AI的热情消退导致科技股估值暴跌，是明年市场面临的最大风险。受访者提出的第二大担忧是新任 美联储主席可能推动激进降息，并引发市场动荡的风险。紧随其后的是对私人资本市场危机的担忧，以 及国债收益率可能超出预期上升的可能性。此外，由于顽固的通膨迫使央行意外加息的风险排名第五。 ...

美联储的沟通，尤其是最高层沟通，鲜少是偶然为之的。 来自最高决策层——特别是美联储主席、副主席以及"权势显赫"的纽约联储主席组成的三巨头表态，往往都经过精心斟酌，以试图在传递清晰政策信 号与避免引发金融市场过度反应之间寻求平衡。 这就是为什么现任纽约联储主席威廉姆斯周五的讲话对市场如此重要的原因： 当威廉姆斯暗示利率"近期内可能进一步调整"时，许多投资者将其视为美联储最高决策层发出的关键信号——即美联储当前仍倾向于在不久的将来再 次降息，很可能就是在12月的联邦公开市场委员会会议上。 "'近期'这个词汇描述有些含糊不清，但最明显的解读是下次会议，"Evercore ISI全球政策和央行战略主管Krishna Guha在一份客户报告中表示。 Guha补充道，"虽然威廉姆斯可能是在表达个人观点，但美联储三巨头就关键的实时政策问题发出的信号，几乎总是要经过主席的批准，如果他在没 有鲍威尔首肯的情况下就发出这样的信号，那将是严重的职业失误。" 因而，在许多圈内人士看来，12月会议可能成为近年来最不寻常的美联储议息会议之一。官员们不仅在如何应对就业增长疲弱与顽固通胀的风险上存 在分歧，而且还缺乏通常用于协调预测差异的数 ...

Core Insights - The Mortgage Bankers Association reported a 5.2% decrease in mortgage applications for the second week of November, completely offsetting a previous increase of 0.6% [1] - This decline marks the largest drop since the end of September, primarily driven by rising benchmark mortgage rates [1] - Concerns over persistent inflation and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have weakened expectations for short-term interest rate cuts [1] Refinance and Purchase Applications - Refinance loan applications fell by 7.3%, indicating a higher sensitivity to short-term interest rate changes [1] - Purchase mortgage applications also decreased by 2.3% in response to the overall decline in mortgage applications [1]

Group 1 - The financial markets are exhibiting contradictory characteristics, with persistent investor anxiety due to high inflation and ongoing policy uncertainties, yet the US stock market has shown an increase this year [2] - The S&P 500 index experienced a significant decline of 20% at its lowest point earlier this year, coinciding with the announcement of a protectionist trade policy in April [2] - Various policy uncertainties, including spending cuts, expanding US deficits, and immigration policies, are contributing to investor unease, alongside warning signs such as rising credit card default rates and weakened consumer data [2][3] Group 2 - Stubborn inflation remains a major concern, with central banks, including the Federal Reserve, indicating a need to address inflation despite growth risks [3] - Geopolitical tensions globally, including wars and climate-sensitive issues, are exacerbating uncertainty, potentially putting risk assets under pressure again [3] - The current market environment prompts a reevaluation of capital market expectations, suggesting that many portfolios may benefit from alternative sources of returns and diversification strategies, particularly hedge fund strategies [3][4] Group 3 - There are strong economic reasons for investors to consider diversifying their portfolios with strategies like hedge funds, as conditions for achieving stable, low-correlated, alpha-driven returns have significantly improved [4] - The differentiation in returns and increased macroeconomic volatility are driving changes in investment strategies, highlighting the need for diversification [4][5] - In the context of rising and persistent inflation, traditional bonds may not always serve as effective hedges, leading investors to seek strategies that provide expected diversification benefits [5]

Group 1 - The UK economy experienced a significant decline in April, with GDP falling by 0.3% month-on-month, the largest drop since October 2023, and worse than the expected decline of 0.1% [1] - Exports to the US saw a record monthly drop of £2 billion (approximately $2.7 billion), marking the largest decline since records began in 1997, attributed to the impact of newly implemented tariffs [1] - The decline in economic output was largely driven by a decrease in real estate and legal activities, contributing 0.2 percentage points to the overall GDP decline [1] Group 2 - In the first quarter, the UK GDP grew by 0.7%, surpassing growth in other G7 economies, prompting the Bank of England to raise its growth forecast for 2025 to 1% [2] - The Bank of England revised its 2026 growth forecast down to 1.25%, anticipating that tariffs will reduce UK economic output by 0.3% over the next three years [2] - April's consumer price index (CPI) rose significantly to 3.5%, the highest level since January 2024, driven by increases in energy, water, and broadband prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Dallas Federal Reserve President, Logan, emphasizes the importance of ensuring that one-time price increases do not lead to persistent inflation [1] Group 1 - Logan highlights the need for careful monetary policy to prevent temporary price hikes from becoming entrenched inflation [1] - The statement reflects concerns about the long-term implications of current inflationary pressures on the economy [1] - The focus is on balancing interest rate adjustments to manage inflation without stifling economic growth [1]