期内，印刷业务的收入减少至约6100万港元(2024年：6700万港元)，此乃由于期内保护主义抬头及政策 不确性加剧导致印刷产品需求疲软。此外，销售中华人民共和国("中国")四川省自贡市物业开发项目的 已竣工住宅单位及车位所得收入较去年同期收入约3,100万港元减少至约10万港元。 格隆汇11月28日丨融太集团(01172.HK)公告，截至2025年9月30日止6个月，集团录得综合收入约6400万 港元(2024年：1.01亿港元)，较去年同期减少37%。公司拥有人应占期内亏损约为2,000万港元(2024年： 3,700万港元)，而每股基本及摊薄亏损为0.35港仙(2024年：0.63港仙)。 ...

SHMET 网讯：美联储关于降息时机和幅度的信号相互矛盾，加速了对冲资金流入互换期权和与隔 夜利率挂钩的衍生品市场，因投资者寻求防范政策不确定性加剧的风险。 在经历长期的压抑后，长期利率互换期权（10年期和30年期互换期权）的短期波动率（尤其是3个 月及以下期限）已开始上升。 利率互换期权属于规模超600万亿美元的场外利率衍生品市场的一部分，衡量的是固定利率现金流 与浮动利率现金流的交换成本（或反之），投资者用其对冲利率风险（包括国债敞口）。 与有担保隔夜融资利率（SOFR）挂钩、下一季度到期的期权未平仓合约也有所增加，原因是交易 员试图应对日益受美联储官员分歧观点影响的政策路径。 SOFR是短期资金的隔夜借贷成本，主要以国债为抵押，其走势与美联储政策利率保持一致。 据芝商所（CME）美联储观察工具数据，美国利率期货目前定价12月降息概率为85%，高于一周前 的50%。 "美联储内部仍处于分裂状态，"WisdomTree固定收益策略主管凯文·弗拉纳根（Kevin Flanagan）表 示，"12位地区联储主席中有6位主张暂停降息，其中3位是现任投票委员。" 利率互换期权成交量攀升 美国商品期货交易委员会（CF ...

Conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve on the timing and magnitude of U.S. interest rate cuts have accelerated hedging flows into swaptions and derivatives tied to overnight rates, with investors seeking protection against heightened policy uncertainty. ...

美元在数据前企稳 外汇市场维持震荡区间 欧洲时段，美元指数在100关口上方小幅波动，整体缺乏方向感。在风险偏好维持高位、降息预期升温 的背景下，美元短线难以恢复上行动能，但市场并未选择做空，而是等待数据落地再进一步定价。主要 货币方面，欧元/美元在1.1500上方窄幅整理，投资者关注欧洲央行金融稳定评估；英镑/美元停留在 1.3100附近，英国秋季预算案成为焦点；纽元/美元在0.5600一线承压，市场普遍预期新西兰央行会降息 25个基点。股指方面，美国期货在欧洲早盘小幅下滑约0.1%，此前纳斯达克上涨2.6%后，短线情绪出 现轻微修正。 美联储内部温和基调增加 降息预期继续升温 来源：外汇百科堂 周二欧洲早盘，市场整体维持前一日的分化走势：美元在多项美国核心数据公布前表现相对平稳，而黄 金受到美联储内部的温和信号和持续的地缘不确定性支撑，继续围绕近期高位运行。投资者的关注点集 中在美国9月零售销售、生产者价格指数（PPI）、11月消费者信心指数及每周私人部门就业数据。同 时，由于关键就业数据延迟发布，市场开始讨论美联储12月会议是否需要调整时间。 交易提示 关注美国核心宏观数据：PPI、零售销售、消费者信心与 ...

美联储12月FOMC会议的时间安排正成为华尔街热议的焦点。 11月24日，据追风交易台消息，瑞银在最新研报中称，美联储12月会议时间安排面临前所未有的困境： 原定12月9-10日举行的FOMC会议将在两份关键就业报告发布之前召开，而这两份报告恰恰是决定是否 降息的核心数据。这促使市场开始讨论一种可能性：美联储是否会将原定12月10日的会议推迟一周，以 便在决策前掌握关键的就业数据。 报告称，这一时间冲突源于政府关门导致的数据发布延迟。美国劳工统计局已宣布，11月就业报告将推 迟至12月16日发布，同时包含此前跳过的10月就业数据。这意味着，如果按原计划开会，FOMC将仅能 依据9月就业数据做出利率决策。 历史先例显示会议调整并非没有可能。1971年和1974年，美联储曾因特殊情况推迟会议。从规则层面 看，美联储法案仅要求FOMC每年至少召开四次会议，未对日期调整作出刚性规定。当前12月9日至10 日的安排本就是2003年以来最早的一次，即便推迟至16日至17日仍处于历史常规范围。 瑞银指出，历史上单份就业报告就足以改变货币政策方向，而此次FOMC面临失去两份报告的风险。 此外，目前委员会内部对12月降息存在分 ...

周二晚间，美国将公布因政府停摆而延后的9月PPI及零售销售数据，数据的重要性因此进一步提升。市 场预估：PPI环比 +0.3%;零售销售环比 +0.4%;如果通胀或消费数据偏强，可能重新抑制降息预期，推动 美元上行并使黄金承压；若数据偏弱，则有利于黄金在4045美元上方巩固支撑。 黄金：短线呈"冲高受阻后的震荡整理"，关注4045—4020区域支撑表现，如被跌破或回测4000美元一 带；若数据走弱，黄金可能重新试探4075及4100上方压力。 美元指数：若数据强劲，美元可能恢复上行节奏。官员立场虽不一致，但最终方向仍取决于数据。 宏观事件：PPI与零售销售是本周最关键的指引因素，对金价与美元短线走势影响显著。 周一亚盘黄金呈现冲高乏力后回落的节奏，反映出市场对于美联储内部差异与即将公布的数据仍保持谨 慎。美元在政策基调支撑下维持在强势区间运行，黄金在触及4075美元后回落并在4045美元获得支撑， 短线围绕即将公布的美国数据继续波动。 周一亚洲时段，市场整体延续谨慎氛围。近期多位美联储官员在公开讲话中强调维持政策不变，这为美 元提供了稳定支撑；与此同时，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯的偏温和表态又推升了短线降息预期，令 ...

Market Overview - On November 13, U.S. stock markets experienced their largest single-day decline in over a month, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping nearly 800 points, reflecting a 1.65% decrease [2] - The S&P 500 index fell by 1.66%, while the Nasdaq Composite index, heavily impacted by technology stocks, plummeted by 2.29% [2] - The decline was attributed to persistent inflation concerns, fluctuating Federal Reserve policies, and the aftermath of a government shutdown [2] Sector Performance - The technology sector, particularly the "Big Seven" tech companies, led the market downturn, with notable declines including Tesla down 6.64%, Nvidia down 3.58%, and Amazon down 2.71% [2] - In contrast, defensive value stocks saw an uptick, with the value stock index rising approximately 1% this week, while growth stocks fell by 0.6% [2] Individual Stock Movements - Cisco saw a 4.6% increase due to an upward revision of its revenue and profit forecasts, benefiting from increased demand for networking equipment [3] - Disney, however, faced a significant drop of 7.8% as concerns grew over a prolonged distribution dispute with YouTube TV, raising uncertainties about its traditional television business [3] Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - The recent government shutdown, lasting 43 days, resulted in an estimated economic loss of $1.5 trillion, significantly exceeding previous estimates [4] - Key social programs, such as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, were affected, leading to disruptions for 42 million Americans [4] - The aviation sector was particularly hard hit, with a 10% reduction in flight volumes at 40 major airports due to increased absenteeism among air traffic controllers [4] Policy and Data Concerns - The shutdown has created a "data vacuum," with critical economic reports like the Consumer Price Index and employment data potentially never being released, complicating Federal Reserve policy decisions [5] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in December have decreased from 70% to approximately 47% due to the uncertainty surrounding inflation and labor market resilience [5] Global and Domestic Implications - The turmoil in U.S. markets has had global repercussions, with concerns about slowing U.S. economic growth impacting oil prices and causing disruptions in transatlantic flight schedules [6] - The temporary resolution of the government shutdown does not address underlying governance issues, with significant budgetary disagreements remaining unresolved [7] - The potential for another government shutdown looms as only three of the twelve annual appropriations bills have been passed, indicating ongoing political instability [7]

专题：第十六届财新峰会 他还谈到，从宏观角度，政策对市场影响很大，几乎是方方面面的。对于到底是政策本身还是政策的不 确定性的影响更大，调查发现政策本身其实没有那么大影响，市场是很有效的，企业家是很聪明的，可 以调整决策适应政策，而政策的不确定性影响更大，企业家只能等待观望，放弃长期投资。因此，政策 的连续性、稳定性、一致性非常重要。 责任编辑：常福强 11月14日消息，在今天举行的第十六届财新峰会上，清华大学国家金融研究院院长田轩表示，从微观层 面看，超级创业者身上恰恰有一些一般人不喜欢的特质，一定是特立独行离经叛道的人，不是常人想象 的那样，真正要鼓励创新创业，要对此更加包容。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ ...

Core Insights - The U.S. federal government shutdown is perceived as a strategic maneuver rather than a mere administrative halt, with implications for economic data and policy decisions [1][5] - The shutdown has disrupted the release of key economic indicators, leading to uncertainty in market predictions and policy formulation [2][3] Economic Impact - The shutdown resulted in the immediate closure of various departments, halting critical data collection processes, including payroll systems and employment statistics, which are essential for assessing economic trends [2][3] - Non-government sources reported significant job losses, with over 100,000 layoffs in small businesses in October, contrasting sharply with official non-farm payroll figures suggesting only 1,200 jobs added [2][3] - Inflation data, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), has also been delayed, complicating the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate decisions [2][3] Market Reactions - The absence of reliable data has led to increased speculation and volatility in financial markets, with investors reacting to incomplete information [3][5] - The Federal Reserve is likely to rely on alternative signals, such as market interest rates and sporadic wage data, to guide its decisions, although these indicators may introduce additional noise and uncertainty [3][5] Political Dynamics - The political stalemate in Congress has created an environment where the government may manipulate information to manage public perception and delay the release of unfavorable data [2][5] - The ongoing shutdown has resulted in a strategic delay, allowing stakeholders to reassess their positions and gather more information before making critical decisions [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that UK retail sales growth has significantly slowed down in October, with a year-on-year increase of only 1.6%, marking the slowest growth since May and below the average of the past 12 months [1][2] - Same-store sales, which exclude the impact of new openings, grew by 1.5% year-on-year, reflecting a cautious consumer sentiment ahead of the upcoming fiscal budget announcement [1][2] - Non-food sales have been particularly weak, with categories such as toys, electronics, and clothing showing almost no growth, which has been a major drag on overall retail performance [1] Group 2 - The British Retail Consortium highlights a clear "wait-and-see" consumer behavior, as shoppers are postponing non-essential spending in anticipation of discounts during the upcoming Black Friday sales [1][2] - Concerns have been raised by major supermarkets, including Tesco and Sainsbury's, regarding potential tax increases that could further suppress already weak consumer demand, especially in the context of high living costs [1] - The current economic environment in the UK is characterized by policy uncertainty and low consumer willingness to spend, indicating that the retail sector's future performance will heavily depend on the details of the forthcoming budget and the actual outcomes of the year-end sales season [2]