摩尔指出："未来一年的商业活动预期位于自2022年底以来最低水平区间，这表明建筑公司对近期前景 依然谨慎，尚未看到市场信心的明显回升。"2022年特拉斯政府"迷你预算"引发的市场动荡仍让企业记 忆犹新，而当前政策的不确定性进一步加剧了观望心态。 业内人士分析称，持续高企的借贷成本、房地产市场疲软以及政策不确定性，是压制英国建筑业复苏的 主要因素。其中，借贷成本高企源于英国顽固的通胀压力，8月消费者价格指数同比上涨3.8%，远高于 欧元区水平，英国央行被迫将基准利率维持在4%的高位，叠加英国央行激进抛售国债、养老基金持仓 下降等因素，进一步推高了融资成本。房地产市场疲软则直接抑制了房屋建筑需求，形成行业复苏 的"硬约束"。 近日，标准普尔全球公布的最新采购经理人指数（PMI)显示，英国建筑业9月活动连续第九个月萎缩， 尽管收缩速度有所放缓，但整体行业仍处低迷状态，反映出企业对经济前景的谨慎态度。 英国媒体分析称，作为英国经济的重要支柱之一，建筑业的持续疲软影响就业市场，目前英国建筑业就 业已出现五个月来首次人员减少趋势，这也折射出整体经济复苏困境。 数据显示，9月英国建筑业PMI从8月的45.5小幅升至46.2 ...

Well, the bet that was made in the strong dollar throughout most of this year was a bet made on the premise that policy uncertainty would continue in the U.S., that you would see see reserve managers rotate out of the dollar, that this would be followed by private asset allocators, including fixed income allocators, move out of the dollar. It was also predicated on the richness of the dollar. We've seen a real appreciation of the dollar for the past 13 years and that was a great story and I think people mad ...

Q&A 国庆假期海外市场三件事 20251007 摘要 黄金价格突破 3,900 美元，白银创 14 年新高，反映了市场对避险资产 的需求增加，以及对潜在经济风险的担忧，可能预示着投资者风险偏好 的降低。 美国政府停摆可能导致 CPI 数据延迟发布，使美联储在 10 月 FOMC 会 议前缺乏数据支持，或迫使其在信息不足的情况下做出降息决策，增加 政策不确定性。 Revenal lab 测算非农初值高于市场预期，但 ADP 数据表现疲软，未来 非农数据修正情况值得关注，可能影响市场对美国劳动力市场健康状况 的评估。 特朗普政府可能借停摆进一步裁员，加剧劳动力市场压力，并可能引发 对美元信用的担忧，但历史数据显示政府停摆对 GDP 的实际影响可能有 限。 Polly Market 预测美国政府关门持续至 10 月 15 日的概率较高，两党 僵持可能强化经济下行风险，并加剧对美元信用的担忧，增加市场避险 情绪。 高市早苗当选日本自民党总裁，其"早苗经济学"延续安倍经济学，主 张宽财政、宽货币和结构改革，可能导致日元贬值和日本长债利率上升。 高市早苗的政策可能增加地缘政治不确定性，并增强全球债务不可持续 性，各国央 ...

新华社日内瓦10月7日电（记者焦倩）世界贸易组织7日发布最新全球贸易展望报告说，受全球经济复苏乏力和美国关税政策等因素影响， 2026年全球货物贸易增长预期大幅下调至0.5%，较8月预测的1.8%显著降低。 受货物贸易和生产的关联影响，服务贸易也将间接受到关税冲击。报告预测，2025年全球服务出口增速将从2024年的6.8%降至4.6%，2026年 进一步降至4.4%。 10月7日，在瑞士日内瓦世界贸易组织总部，世贸组织总干事伊维拉（中）在新闻发布会上讲话。新华社记者 马汝轩 摄 这是10月7日在瑞士日内瓦世界贸易组织总部拍摄的当日发布的最新全球贸易展望报告封面。新华社记者 马汝轩 摄 世贸组织总干事伊维拉当天在新闻发布会上表示，尽管单边关税措施和贸易政策不确定性带来强劲逆风，但得益于多边贸易体系所提供的稳 定性，以及成员针对关税变化采取的适当应对措施，全球贸易仍展现一定韧性。 世贸组织经济学家强调，贸易限制措施和政策不确定性向更多经济体及行业蔓延，构成主要下行风险。 10月7日，在瑞士日内瓦世界贸易组织总部，世贸组织总干事伊维拉（后左三）在新闻发布会上讲话。新华社记者 马汝轩 摄 在该报告中，世贸组织将20 ...

辉瑞近来一直处于聚光灯下，尤其是在其与美国政府的协议曝光之后。特朗普政府宣布对进口药品征收 100%关税，以迫使制药企业将生产转移回美国。这一政策引发了制药行业的震动，而辉瑞则率先与政 府达成协议，承诺在美国提供一些药物的价格折扣，并将投资700亿美元用于美国的生产和研发。作为 交换，辉瑞将在未来三年内获得关税豁免。这一重大举措虽然暂时为辉瑞争取到了一个喘息的机会，但 也在一定程度上揭示了企业经营环境的不确定性。 再看这些协议，尽管它们短期内推高了辉瑞的股价，但长期看来，市场对这些政策的实际效果持保留态 度。一方面，虽然通过直接销售药品和提供价格优惠的方式，辉瑞似乎向消费者展示了更低的药价，但 其实际受惠的范围仍然有限，许多关键问题并未得到解决。尤其是医保用户是否能享受这一折扣，依然 是一个谜。此外，直销药品的现金支付价格可能不会被纳入医保的自付额度，长远来看，未必能降低整 体用药成本。 来源：市场资讯 （来源：美股情报站） 近期辉瑞股价的下跌引发了市场的广泛关注。10月6日，辉瑞的股价下跌了3.43%，这在一定程度上反 映了市场对其未来发展的疑虑。然而在背后，是一场复杂的政治和经济因素交织的结果。 另一方面 ...

仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | | | | | | | 国内主要商品涨跌幅 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 跌幅 季度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 | | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | | 日 度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 | 月庚涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 9 | | BB | 18.50% | 17.43% | 航运 | 集运欧线 | 1115 | -2.11% | -2.11% | -11.58% | -16.73% | | 4% | 10.67% | 11.13% | | 黄金 | 866.52 | 1.22% | 1.22% | 10.05% | 12.63% | | 18 | 23.35% | 27.04% | 贵金属 | 白银 | 6860 I | 2.89% | 2.89% | 16 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is experiencing stagnation, with only 22,000 jobs added in August, indicating a slowdown in hiring due to trade tensions [1] - Manufacturing, wholesale retail, and energy sectors are particularly affected, with significant job losses reported [2] - Companies like John Deere have reported substantial financial losses due to tariffs, with a projected loss of $300 million by 2025, leading to layoffs [2] Group 2 - Uncertainty from fluctuating policies is causing companies to adopt a cautious approach, often leading to hiring freezes [3] - Executives from various sectors express that without stable policies and predictable costs, recruitment and expansion plans are on hold [3] - The Trump administration maintains that tariffs will ultimately boost employment by encouraging businesses to relocate operations back to the U.S. [4] Group 3 - Some companies report benefits from tariffs, claiming they help their business, while others highlight the negative impact on hiring and growth [4] - Economic experts argue that the manufacturing sector's struggles are due to demand slowdown and unresolved policy shifts rather than labor supply issues [4]

Core Insights - Moody's report on global macro outlook for 2025-26 indicates a loss of momentum in global economic growth, with emerging and frontier markets, particularly in East Africa, facing increased risks from uncertainty and policy changes [1] Economic Growth - The report forecasts a slowdown in global economic growth for this year and next as economies adapt to significant shifts in trade, fiscal, monetary, and immigration policies [1] Trade and Investment - Ongoing instability in the global trade system and adjustments in monetary policy may exert pressure on investment, exports, and employment in developing economies [1] - Heightened trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and a slowdown in global economic growth could hinder foreign direct investment into developing economies, especially in East Africa, limiting capital inflows for infrastructure, innovation, and job creation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing weakness, with major indices declining, particularly in September, which historically has been the weakest month for stocks [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On the last trading day of August, major indices fell, with the Nasdaq dropping over 1% and Nvidia and chip stocks declining more than 3% [1]. - The S&P 500 index has risen 17% since early May, reaching a valuation of 22 times expected earnings, comparable to the late internet bubble [4]. Group 2: Seasonal Trends and Challenges - Historical data shows that the S&P 500 has a 56% chance of declining in September, with an average drop of 1.17%, and this probability increases to 58% in presidential election years [3]. - September is expected to bring significant macroeconomic challenges, including key non-farm payroll reports and inflation data, along with a Federal Reserve meeting to decide on interest rates [3]. Group 3: Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics - Investors are facing bubble risks as hedge funds have reached an 80th percentile in stock exposure, indicating overextended market positioning [4]. - There is an anticipated reduction in buying support as pension funds and mutual funds will rebalance portfolios, potentially leading to increased selling pressure [4][5]. - Retail investor activity is expected to slow down in September, which is typically a low participation month for retail investors [5]. Group 4: Volatility and Uncertainty - September and October are historically the months with the highest stock market volatility, with the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) typically hovering around 20 during this period [8]. - There is a growing caution among traders regarding downside risks, as indicated by the rising costs of put options [8]. - Policy uncertainty is heightened with the upcoming Federal Reserve meetings and potential economic data that could influence interest rate decisions [8][9]. Group 5: Strategic Recommendations - Analysts suggest that despite the current volatility, investors should consider increasing stock holdings, viewing potential market pullbacks as buying opportunities [9].

Group 1 - The pressure from President Trump on the Federal Reserve and the resurgence of global trade tensions have heightened market risk aversion, leading to declines in emerging market stocks and currencies [1] - The Morgan Stanley Capital International Emerging Markets Index fell by 0.9%, ending a rally that had reached a three-year high, while the MSCI Emerging Market Currency Index dropped by 0.3%, with the South Korean won being a major contributor to the decline [1] - The Trump administration's announcement of new tariffs on the semiconductor and advanced technology sectors, along with export restrictions, has increased policy uncertainty [2] Group 2 - Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook has intensified the power struggle between the President and the Fed, with Cook's legal team indicating plans to challenge the dismissal [3] - The market reacted to this event with a 0.3% drop in the dollar index, a 0.6% increase in gold prices, and rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields, reflecting investor concerns over increasing inflation pressures [3] - Major tech stocks in emerging markets, such as Alibaba and Tencent, experienced declines, while the South Korean won faced pressure due to a 15% tariff on goods and significant investment challenges from the U.S. [3] Group 3 - A high-level trade delegation from China, led by Vice Minister Li Chenggang, is set to visit Washington, signaling a potential thaw in U.S.-China trade relations [4] - This visit follows the Trump administration's recent decision to pause new tariffs on Chinese goods for 90 days, aiming to address several contentious issues [4] - Analysts view the Chinese delegation's visit as a positive sign for potential agreements between Trump and Xi Jinping, contingent on progress in trade negotiations [4]