Core Viewpoint - CME Group CEO Terry Duffy warned that any attempt by the Trump administration to intervene in the futures market to suppress oil prices could lead to a "biblical disaster" [1][2]. Group 1: Government Intervention Concerns - Duffy emphasized that government intervention in commodity pricing would severely undermine market confidence, leading to unpredictable consequences [2]. - Reports indicated that the U.S. Treasury is evaluating various options to lower oil prices, including potential intervention in the futures market, although it has not yet taken action [3]. - The oil market experienced significant volatility, with Brent crude prices soaring to nearly $120 per barrel before plummeting above $80, raising speculation about possible government involvement [4][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Speculations - Large, unexplained trades in the oil market prompted speculation among energy traders and consulting firms about potential government buyers or sellers [6]. - Tim Skirrow from Energy Aspects noted that clients have been inquiring whether the U.S. government was behind recent large trades, suggesting that the seller might be the Treasury [7]. - The idea of the Treasury selling near-month crude futures contracts has gained unusual attention, according to a report from Rapidan Energy Group [8]. Group 3: Confusion from Government Officials - Confusion in the oil market was exacerbated by U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright's social media post about the Navy escorting a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, which was later deleted and denied by the White House [9]. - Analyst John Evans from PVM Oil Associates expressed uncertainty about whether Wright's post was a mistake or a deliberate manipulation [10]. - Wright later stated that the U.S. military was "not prepared" to implement escort operations before the end of the month, adding to the uncertainty in the market [11]. Group 4: Overall Market Volatility - The combination of these events has led oil market participants to navigate dual uncertainties regarding supply prospects and policy signals, making short-term market volatility likely to persist [12].

Economic Overview - The report indicates that the U.S. economy showed a relatively robust performance at the beginning of the year, but businesses remain cautious about future prospects [2] - Consumer spending has seen a rebound, yet many households are still reducing large purchases due to uncertainty [2] - Manufacturers in the Philadelphia area report challenges to production and orders due to unclear economic outlook and recent winter storms [2] Employment Trends - The labor market remains stable overall, but lacks significant vitality, with many companies limiting hiring plans due to weak demand and rising operational costs [2] - A survey by the Dallas Fed reveals that most businesses in both the service and manufacturing sectors currently have no plans to expand hiring [2] Automation and Workforce Changes - Some companies on the West Coast are reducing their workforce through layoffs or natural attrition, while exploring automation and AI to enhance efficiency [3] - A manufacturer in Memphis is reallocating capital budgets towards automation equipment due to ongoing recruitment difficulties [3] Impact of Immigration Enforcement - Strengthened immigration enforcement in the Minneapolis area has significantly impacted the local economy, with many employees resigning or not showing up for work [3] - A landscaping company reported challenges in finding suitable labor to replace departing employees, and a labor program for new immigrants saw a 43% drop in enrollment [3] Inflation and Cost Pressures - Inflation remains a widespread concern among businesses, with all 12 Federal Reserve districts reporting price increases [3] - Eight districts noted moderate inflation, while four reported slight increases, with rising costs in insurance, energy, and raw materials being common themes [3] Pricing Strategies - Some companies are responding to rising costs by maintaining stable prices while reducing product packaging sizes [4] - A Chicago-based company plans to pass on more tariff costs to customers this year, shifting from a previous cost-sharing approach [5] Regional Price Trends - The Dallas Fed noted that service prices are rising moderately, while physical goods prices are experiencing more significant increases [6] - The Atlanta Fed observed relatively mild inflation pressures, with prices remaining stable or only slightly increasing, alongside growing consumer resistance to price hikes [6] Overall Economic Sentiment - The Beige Book reflects a steady U.S. economy at the start of 2026, but growth momentum is uneven, with businesses facing cost pressures and policy uncertainties [6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling against Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs has significantly undermined the White House's trade policy toolbox, forcing a rapid pivot to an older law, the Trade Act of 1974, which has limitations and a short time frame for implementation [1][3][10]. Group 1: Legal and Policy Implications - The Trade Act of 1974, specifically Section 122, requires a fundamental imbalance in the U.S. international payments to be invoked, and its effectiveness is limited to 150 days [3][10]. - The ruling has jeopardized existing tariffs on China, Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam, as well as the legal foundation of the U.S.-China "truce agreement" reached in October [5][10]. - The U.S. Trade Representative has been emphasizing the validity of existing agreements, indicating a lack of confidence in the legal basis for these tariffs [6][12]. Group 2: International Reactions and Strategic Responses - China's response has been notably calm, with the Ministry of Commerce stating it is "fully assessing" the situation and urging the U.S. to remove unilateral tariffs, indicating a strategic advantage by not reacting aggressively [12][14]. - Other countries, including the EU, South Korea, and Japan, are observing the situation closely, with the EU demanding clarification on the legal basis for U.S. tariffs, which could lead to a suspension of trade agreements [16][19]. - The uncertainty in U.S. trade policy is causing global supply chains to reassess their strategies, as the unpredictability of U.S. actions poses a greater risk than high tariffs themselves [21][35]. Group 3: Long-term Consequences and Market Dynamics - The 150-day limit on the new tariffs creates a pressing deadline for the White House to secure Congressional approval, which is unlikely given the current political climate [10][33]. - The ongoing legal and political turmoil in the U.S. is leading to a loss of credibility in trade agreements, as allies begin to question the reliability of U.S. commitments [31][39]. - The situation reflects a deeper structural tension within U.S. governance, where the executive branch's attempts to bypass legislative authority are met with judicial constraints, ultimately affecting global trade dynamics [40][42].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. tariff policy has reached an unprecedented level of deadlock, with the Supreme Court ruling against the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and additional tariffs related to fentanyl, marking a significant blow to Trump's tariff strategy [1] Group 1: Legal and Political Developments - The Supreme Court's ruling is seen as a critical intervention that undermines the legal basis of Trump's tariff policies, potentially affecting their implementation and legitimacy [1][5] - Following the ruling, Trump quickly signed a new executive order to impose a 10% additional tax on all imports, which was rapidly increased to 15%, indicating a strategic anxiety within the administration [3][5] Group 2: International Reactions - The ruling has triggered a strong response from various countries, with India clarifying its stance on oil purchases from Russia and halting a planned high-level trade delegation to the U.S., reflecting a shift in diplomatic relations [7][10] - Over thirty countries, including the EU, Brazil, Canada, and Australia, have expressed serious concerns about the U.S. tariff actions, indicating a collective unease without forming a formal coalition [11] Group 3: Implications for Trade Relations - The legal uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs has led to a deterioration of trust among traditional allies, with countries now more cautious in their trade dealings with the U.S. [11][15] - The situation has created a landscape where the U.S. is perceived as a source of global policy uncertainty, prompting other nations to seek more stable and predictable trade partners [15]

Group 1 - The latest silver price in the Shanghai market is reported at 23097.00 CNY per gram, showing an increase of 1068.00 CNY, which is a rise of 4.85% compared to the previous trading day [1] - The opening price for the day was 22205.00 CNY per gram, with an intraday high of 23311.00 CNY per gram and a low of 21780.00 CNY per gram [1] Group 2 - The Trump administration announced a 15% tariff on goods from all countries and regions, raising concerns among Japanese businesses about increased investment risks due to policy uncertainty [3] - The President of the Japan Business Federation expressed that the instability of U.S. tariff policies has made the business environment highly opaque, complicating investment decisions [3] - The recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling that limited the President's authority to impose large-scale tariffs has been followed by a swift announcement of new tariffs, adding further complexity to the global trade environment [3] Group 3 - The current Shanghai silver futures are experiencing high volatility, with technical indicators showing strong consolidation characteristics [4] - The price is firmly above the 20-day and 50-day moving average support levels, with the MACD indicator maintaining a bullish crossover above the zero line, indicating dominant bullish momentum [4] - Key support levels are identified in the range of 23000-24000 CNY per kilogram, while resistance levels are focused on the 25000-26000 CNY area, with potential challenges to 27000 CNY if broken [4]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector has seen significant gains, with the non-ferrous ETF FuGuo (159168) rising by 5.32% at one point, driven by macroeconomic uncertainties and supply chain restructuring concerns [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a substantial increase, with key stocks such as Xiyegongsi, Beifang Rare Earth, and Chihong Zinc & Germanium hitting the 10% daily limit [1] - Over 90% of the stocks in the sector showed an upward trend, indicating strong market sentiment [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - Ongoing tensions between the US and Iran, along with the US government's announcement of a 10% to 15% alternative tariff on global goods, have heightened market concerns regarding policy uncertainty and supply chain restructuring [1] - This macro environment has reinforced the safe-haven attributes of key minerals and the logic of stagflation trading [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Research institutions predict that by 2026, the market will enter a second phase of a bull market characterized by profit-driven growth, supported by domestic demand expansion and anti-involution narratives [1] - The strong cyclical nature of non-ferrous metals is expected to manifest, with financial attributes and industry trends providing opportunities for revaluation [1] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investors looking to enter the non-ferrous metal sector may consider the non-ferrous ETF FuGuo (159168), which closely tracks the Industrial Non-Ferrous Index (H11059.CSI) [1] - The ETF selectively includes 30 listed companies involved in industrial metals such as copper, aluminum, rare earths, lead, zinc, tungsten, and molybdenum, focusing on growth dividends from industrial upgrades [1]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis from Deutsche Bank indicates that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is primarily influenced by oil prices, while geopolitical shocks have little direct impact on yields [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Oil Prices and Economic Data - Rising oil prices and unexpectedly strong economic data significantly increase Treasury yields [2]. - The report identifies oil prices as a "key variable" to track for understanding U.S. Treasury yields [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions and Market Reactions - Amid escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, market focus is on geopolitical shocks, although these do not directly affect Treasury yields [2]. - President Trump has indicated a potential military strike on Iran if diplomatic solutions are not reached, coinciding with a significant military buildup in the region [2]. Group 3: Recent Yield Movements - During the period of military buildup, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 21 basis points, from 4.24% at the end of January to 4.03%, marking the largest monthly decline in the past year [1][2].

Group 1 - The latest Shanghai gold spot price is quoted at 1147.66 yuan/gram, showing a discount of 2.84 yuan/gram compared to the futures main price of 1150.50 yuan/gram [1] - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the government unlawfully imposed tariffs under the IEEPA, and President Biden announced a 15% import tariff on global goods [1] - The U.S. GDP growth for Q4 2025 was 1.4% annualized quarter-on-quarter, significantly lower than the expected 3.0%, with government shutdowns dragging GDP down by approximately 1 percentage point [1] Group 2 - Ongoing geopolitical tensions in Iran and mixed U.S. economic data have raised concerns about stagflation in the U.S. economy, leading to increased market volatility [2] - The ambiguity in U.S. trade policy has weakened investor confidence in U.S. assets, contributing to global market risk [2] Group 3 - Jinrui Futures suggests that the recent changes in tariffs and ongoing issues in Iran may support gold and silver prices in the short term [3] - COMEX gold futures rose by 3.29% to $5247.90 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 6.87% to $88.00 per ounce [3] - The expected trading range for COMEX gold is between $5150 and $5250 per ounce, and for Shanghai gold, it is between 1130 and 1180 yuan/gram [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the USD/CHF exchange rate is experiencing a range consolidation, with the latest rate at 0.7753, reflecting a slight increase of 0.12% due to a modest recovery in demand for the Swiss franc as a safe-haven currency [1] - The market interpretation is mixed, with rising uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies boosting the appeal of the Swiss franc, while the USD retains some safe-haven attributes, leading to a tug-of-war between the two currencies [1] - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintains an accommodative stance to prevent excessive strengthening of the Swiss franc, which limits its appreciation potential [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that the USD/CHF exchange rate is supported in the range of 0.7740 to 0.7750, with the EMA50 providing short-term support and MACD showing balanced momentum [2] - Key resistance levels are identified at 0.7780 to 0.7800, while critical support is found at 0.7720 to 0.7700, with a potential further decline if the support is breached [2] - The short-term outlook for USD/CHF is characterized by range-bound fluctuations, with medium-term direction dependent on global risk sentiment, SNB statements, and Federal Reserve policies [2] Group 3 - The market is currently focused on upcoming statements from the Swiss National Bank, U.S. economic data, and geopolitical developments, with sentiment and data expected to jointly influence market movements [3] Group 4 - Overall, the USD/CHF exchange rate is in a short-term range consolidation, with medium-term trends driven by risk sentiment [4]

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The latest released US economic data is divided. The economic growth in the fourth quarter of last year fell short of expectations, while inflation exceeded expectations, intensifying policy uncertainty, and the market is worried that the US economy will fall into stagflation. The ambiguity of US trade policy weakens investors' confidence in US assets and intensifies the global market volatility risk. During the Spring Festival holiday, overseas gold and silver generally rose, and the domestic market is likely to open higher after the holiday, with silver expected to open sharply higher [1][2] - Gold and silver fluctuate sharply in the short term, and investors should pay attention to controlling positions and preventing risks [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On February 23, COMEX gold futures rose 3.29% to $5,247.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 6.87% to $88.00 per ounce. On February 13, the main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 1,110.10 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 19,782 yuan per kilogram. During the Spring Festival holiday, overseas gold and silver rose significantly [1] Important Information - As of February 23, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust increased by 7.72 tons from the previous day, with the current holdings at 1,086.47 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust increased by 312.77 tons from the previous day, with the current holdings at 15,830.38 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 4.0%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 96.0%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by a cumulative 25 basis points by April is 17.3%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 82.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 0.6%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut by June is 46.8% [1] - On February 20, the US Supreme Court ruled 6 - 3 that the Trump administration's policy of imposing large - scale tariffs using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) was illegal. On the same day, Trump announced that he would impose a 10% import tariff on global goods for 150 days under Section 122 of the US Trade Act of 1974 to replace the tariff found illegal by the Supreme Court. On the 21st, Trump posted on social media that the "global import tariff" rate he announced the previous day would be raised from 10% to 15% [1] - The US Customs will stop collecting the tariff ruled illegal by the Supreme Court from February 24. The US Democrats will block any attempt to extend the tariff and strongly promote a mandatory refund plan. The European Parliament has suspended the approval of the EU - US trade agreement. The UK may be the biggest victim of Trump's new tariff [1] - The initial value of the annualized quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025 was 1.4%, far lower than the expected 3.0% and the previous value of 4.4%, mainly dragged down by the government shutdown and cooling consumption; the full - year GDP growth in 2025 was 2.2%, lower than 2.8% in 2024. The core PCE price index in December increased by 3.0% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2.9%, and increased by 0.4% month - on - month, indicating that inflationary pressure still exists [1] - The annualized total number of new home sales in the US in December was 745,000, the highest since February 2022, exceeding the expected 730,000; personal spending increased by 0.4% month - on - month, in line with expectations. The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in February was 56.6, lower than the expected 57.3, and the one - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.4% [1][2] - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in February was 51.2, a 7 - month low, lower than the expected 52.6, and the previous value in January was 52.4; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 52.3, slightly lower than the expected 53.0, and the previous value in January was 52.7, indicating a slowdown in business activity growth [2] - Data released by S&P Global showed that the eurozone's composite PMI in February rose from 51.3 in January to 51.9, the manufacturing PMI jumped from 49.5 to 50.8, reaching a 44 - month high and standing above the 50 boom - bust line for the first time since August last year. The service PMI rose slightly to 51.8, with the previous value at 51.6. Among them, the German economy improved significantly, with the composite PMI rising to a four - month high of 53.1 and the manufacturing PMI reaching 50.7, entering the expansion range for the first time since June 2022 [2] - CCTV News reported that there are reports that US President Trump has told his advisers that he "tends to conduct a preliminary strike (against Iran) in the next few days" and then launch a larger - scale military strike in the next few months to force Iran to "submit" and reach an agreement as required by the US. A new round of negotiations between the US and Iran is scheduled to be held in Geneva, Switzerland on the 26th. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said in an interview with US media on the 22nd that it is possible to reach a "better agreement" than the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, and he also emphasized Iran's right to peaceful use of nuclear energy [2] Market Logic - On February 20, the US Supreme Court ruled that the US government's use of IEEPA to impose tariffs was illegal; on the 21st, the US president posted on his social platform that he would impose a 15% import tariff on global goods. The initial value of the annualized quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025 was 1.4%, with the government shutdown dragging down GDP by about 1 percentage point, far lower than the expected 3.0%; the US core PCE price index in December increased by 3.0% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2.9%, and increased by 0.4% month - on - month, indicating that inflationary pressure still exists. Tensions in the Iranian geopolitical situation continue. The latest released US economic data is divided, with the economic growth in the fourth quarter of last year falling short of expectations and inflation exceeding expectations, intensifying policy uncertainty, and the market is worried that the US economy will fall into stagflation. At the same time, the ambiguity of US trade policy weakens investors' confidence in US assets and intensifies the global market volatility risk. During the Spring Festival holiday, overseas gold and silver generally rose, and the domestic market is likely to open higher after the holiday, with silver expected to open sharply higher [1][2] Trading Strategy - Gold and silver fluctuate sharply in the short term, and investors should pay attention to controlling positions and preventing risks [2]