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低空经济eVTOL从何起飞,这将影响产业估值
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-09-11 12:33
Core Insights - Xiaopeng Huitian's X3-F flying vehicle has received a pilot license in the UAE, marking the first overseas certification for a Chinese flying car company [1] - The eVTOL market in China is projected to reach $41 billion by 2040, with annual sales of approximately 160,000 units [2] Market Overview - The eVTOL market is expected to see growth from both B2B and B2C segments, with personal flying eVTOLs focusing on private use, sightseeing, on-demand rentals, and flight training [3] - Personal flying eVTOLs are anticipated to capture a market size of $23 billion by 2040, accounting for about 55% of the total eVTOL market, while the transportation eVTOL segment is projected to reach $18 billion, representing 45% [5][12] Personal Flying eVTOL - The personal flying eVTOL market is driven by high-net-worth individuals seeking unique flying experiences, with a projected annual sales volume of 150,000 units [5] - Current offerings in the personal flying eVTOL market include models priced around 2 million yuan, with future luxury and entry-level models expected to launch by 2030 [5][6] Low-altitude Tourism - The low-altitude tourism segment is expected to see significant penetration, with eVTOLs projected to achieve a market size of $800 million by 2040, driven by their lower operational costs and superior experience compared to traditional helicopters [7][8] Rental and Training Markets - The rental market for eVTOLs is expected to grow, with projected annual sales reaching 7,000 units and a market size of approximately $1 billion by 2040 [8] - The flight training market is estimated to reach between $150 million and $190 million based on the number of new licenses issued annually [9] Transportation eVTOL - The transportation eVTOL market is projected to reach $18 billion by 2040, with private purchases making up 73% of the market, and airport and high-speed rail connections accounting for 15% [12] - eVTOLs are expected to significantly reduce travel time between urban centers and airports, with costs per kilometer being approximately 10 yuan, much lower than traditional helicopter services [10][11] Commercialization Pathways - Personal flying eVTOLs are likely to achieve commercialization sooner due to lighter regulatory requirements and a clearer certification path, while transportation eVTOLs face stricter regulations and infrastructure challenges [13][14] - The market dynamics in China suggest a potential for personal flying eVTOLs to lead the way in commercialization, similar to the rapid growth seen in the consumer drone market [14]